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自 3 月份以来,比特币价格面临大幅回调,主要是由于鲸鱼的大规模抛售和大量代币解锁涌入市场。
The Bitcoin price has faced significant corrections since March, driven primarily by large-scale sell-offs from whales and massive token unlocks flooding the total market supply of altcoins.
自 3 月份以来,比特币价格经历了重大调整,主要是由于鲸鱼的大规模抛售和大量代币解锁淹没了山寨币的市场总供应。
However, according to a recent report from 10x Research, these factors have offset “bullish flows” from stablecoins, spot Bitcoin ( BTC ) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and “a rise in futures leverage.” The report states:
然而,根据 10x Research 最近的一份报告,这些因素抵消了来自稳定币、现货比特币 (BTC) 交易所交易基金 (ETF) 和“期货杠杆上升”的“看涨资金流”。报告指出:
“Despite the narrative of institutional inflows driving the 2023 crypto bull market, our analysis suggests that retail participation was the primary driver of the uptrend.”
“尽管机构资金流入推动了 2023 年加密货币牛市的发展,但我们的分析表明散户参与是上涨趋势的主要驱动力。”
Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, explained to Cointelegraph what he believes could have the biggest impact on BTC in the next six to 12 months:
10x Research 创始人 Markus Thielen 向 Cointelegraph 解释了他认为未来 6 到 12 个月内可能对 BTC 产生最大影响的因素:
“The biggest factor that will determine the Bitcoin price in the next 6-12 months is the activity of whales. If whales continue to sell their BTC holdings at a high rate, it will put downward pressure on the price. However, if whales begin to accumulate BTC again, it could drive the price significantly higher.”
“决定未来 6-12 个月比特币价格的最大因素是鲸鱼的活动。如果鲸鱼继续高价抛售持有的比特币,将对价格造成下行压力。然而,如果鲸鱼再次开始积累比特币,可能会大幅推高价格。”
Thielen’s statement aligns with the 10x Research report, which highlights the strong correlation between whale activity and Bitcoin price movements throughout 2024. Notably, the report identifies two distinct periods of whale activity that influenced the market.
Thielen 的声明与 10x 研究报告一致,该报告强调了 2024 年鲸鱼活动与比特币价格走势之间的密切相关性。值得注意的是,该报告确定了影响市场的两个不同时期的鲸鱼活动。
“We’ve observed two distinct phases of whale activity throughout 2024. In the first half, whales drove the market lower, while in the second half, their activity shifted and contributed to the H2 rally.”
“我们在 2024 年观察到鲸鱼活动的两个不同阶段。在上半年,鲸鱼推动市场走低,而在下半年,它们的活动发生了变化,并促成了下半年的反弹。”
The report adds that as Bitcoin approached the 2024 peak, whale activity suggested their intent to sell their holdings at a large scale. This observation is based on the analysis of whale inflows and outflows from major cryptocurrency exchanges.
该报告补充说,随着比特币接近 2024 年的峰值,鲸鱼活动表明他们打算大规模出售所持比特币。这一观察是基于对主要加密货币交易所的鲸鱼流入和流出的分析。
“As we approached the February/March 2024 bull market peak, we’ve observed significant inflows from Whales (holders with over 1,000 BTC) into exchanges, signaling their intent to sell.”
“当我们接近 2024 年 2 月/3 月牛市高峰时,我们观察到鲸鱼(拥有超过 1,000 BTC 的持有者)大量资金流入交易所,表明他们有意出售。”
According to the report, the activity of these “whales” indicated that they were “cashing out,” which contributed to Bitcoin’s inability to gain further upward momentum and begin 2024.
报告称,这些“鲸鱼”的活动表明他们正在“套现”,这导致比特币在 2024 年开始无法获得进一步的上涨动力。
Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a technical analysis indicator that measures the magnitude of recent price changes to evaluate whether an asset is overbought or oversold. It typically ranges from 0 to 100, with 50 considered neutral. An RSI above 70 generally indicates overbought conditions, while an RSI below 30 suggests an asset may be oversold.
相对强弱指数(RSI)是一种技术分析指标,衡量近期价格变化的幅度,以评估资产是否超买或超卖。它的范围通常为 0 到 100,其中 50 被视为中性。 RSI 高于 70 通常表明存在超买状况,而 RSI 低于 30 则表明资产可能超卖。
A golden cross occurs when the 50-day moving average (MA) crosses above the 200-day MA on a price chart, typically indicating a bullish trend. Conversely, a death cross is formed when the 50-day MA crosses below the 200-day MA, often signaling a bearish trend.
当价格图表上 50 日移动平均线 (MA) 穿越 200 日移动平均线上方时,就会出现黄金交叉,通常表明看涨趋势。相反,当 50 日均线低于 200 日均线时,就会形成死亡交叉,通常预示着看跌趋势。
Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are a type of financial instrument that tracks the performance of an underlying asset, such as a stock index or commodity. They offer investors a way to gain exposure to the performance of an asset without directly purchasing it. In the context of cryptocurrencies, ETFs can provide a convenient and regulated method for investors to participate in the digital asset market.
交易所交易基金 (ETF) 是一种跟踪标的资产(例如股指或商品)表现的金融工具。它们为投资者提供了一种无需直接购买资产即可了解资产表现的方法。在加密货币背景下,ETF可以为投资者参与数字资产市场提供便捷且规范的方式。
Tap-to-earn games have gained popularity in the blockchain gaming space, typically offering simple and accessible gameplay mechanics. These games often reward players with virtual assets or tokens for performing simple in-game actions, such as tapping the screen or completing mini-games. Tap-to-earn games have attracted a large player base, especially in東南亞, and some even integrate elements of decentralized finance (DeFi) or non-fungible tokens (NFTs).
点击赚钱游戏在区块链游戏领域越来越受欢迎,通常提供简单易懂的游戏机制。这些游戏通常会奖励玩家执行简单的游戏内操作(例如点击屏幕或完成迷你游戏)的虚拟资产或代币。点击赚钱游戏吸引了大量玩家,尤其是在东南亚,有些游戏甚至融入了去中心化金融(DeFi)或不可替代代币(NFT)的元素。
Despite the massive growth in blockchain games, some critics argue that the heavy focus on financial incentives and earning virtual assets may limit the creativity and sustainability of these games. They contend that blockchain games could benefit from a broader exploration of genres, deeper storytelling and engaging gameplay experiences beyond the primary goal of earning tokens.
尽管区块链游戏大幅增长,但一些批评者认为,对经济激励和赚取虚拟资产的过度关注可能会限制这些游戏的创造力和可持续性。他们认为,除了赚取代币的主要目标之外,区块链游戏还可以从更广泛的游戏类型探索、更深入的故事讲述和引人入胜的游戏体验中受益。
Bums is a tap-to-earn game available on Telegram that has quickly gained popularity, amassing millions of players in a short amount of time. The game features a unique and humorous premise, where players扮演無家可歸者, attempting to navigate the streets and earn virtual money. Players can then use their earnings to purchase items, upgrade their character and progress through the game world.
Bums 是 Telegram 上一款点击即可赚钱的游戏,很快就广受欢迎,在短时间内聚集了数百万玩家。该游戏具有独特而幽默的前提,玩家扮演无家可归者,尝试在街道上行走并赚取虚拟金钱。然后,玩家可以使用他们的收入来购买物品、升级他们的角色并在游戏世界中取得进展。
According to the 10x Research report, the last batch of major token unlocks occurred in November, and the next batch is expected to be significantly smaller. This observation suggests that the selling pressure from token unlocks will likely decrease in the coming months.
根据 10x Research 报告,最后一批主要代币解锁发生在 11 月份,预计下一批的规模将明显缩小。这一观察结果表明,代币解锁带来的抛售压力可能会在未来几个月内减少。
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