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自 3 月以來,比特幣價格面臨大幅回調,主要是由於鯨魚的大規模拋售和大量代幣解鎖湧入市場。
The Bitcoin price has faced significant corrections since March, driven primarily by large-scale sell-offs from whales and massive token unlocks flooding the total market supply of altcoins.
自 3 月以來,比特幣價格經歷了重大調整,主要是由於鯨魚的大規模拋售和大量代幣解鎖淹沒了山寨幣的市場總供應。
However, according to a recent report from 10x Research, these factors have offset “bullish flows” from stablecoins, spot Bitcoin ( BTC ) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and “a rise in futures leverage.” The report states:
然而,根據 10x Research 最近的一份報告,這些因素抵消了來自穩定幣、現貨比特幣 (BTC) 交易所交易基金 (ETF) 和「期貨槓桿上升」的「看漲資金流」。報告指出:
“Despite the narrative of institutional inflows driving the 2023 crypto bull market, our analysis suggests that retail participation was the primary driver of the uptrend.”
“儘管機構資金流入推動了 2023 年加密貨幣牛市的發展,但我們的分析表明散戶參與是上漲趨勢的主要驅動力。”
Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, explained to Cointelegraph what he believes could have the biggest impact on BTC in the next six to 12 months:
10x Research 創辦人 Markus Thielen 向 Cointelegraph 解釋了他認為未來 6 到 12 個月內可能對 BTC 產生最大影響的因素:
“The biggest factor that will determine the Bitcoin price in the next 6-12 months is the activity of whales. If whales continue to sell their BTC holdings at a high rate, it will put downward pressure on the price. However, if whales begin to accumulate BTC again, it could drive the price significantly higher.”
「決定未來 6-12 個月比特幣價格的最大因素是鯨魚的活動。如果鯨魚繼續高價拋售持有的比特幣,將對價格造成下行壓力。然而,如果鯨魚再次開始累積比特幣,可能會大幅推高價格。
Thielen’s statement aligns with the 10x Research report, which highlights the strong correlation between whale activity and Bitcoin price movements throughout 2024. Notably, the report identifies two distinct periods of whale activity that influenced the market.
Thielen 的聲明與 10x 研究報告一致,該報告強調了 2024 年鯨魚活動與比特幣價格走勢之間的密切相關性。
“We’ve observed two distinct phases of whale activity throughout 2024. In the first half, whales drove the market lower, while in the second half, their activity shifted and contributed to the H2 rally.”
「我們在 2024 年觀察到鯨魚活動的兩個不同階段。在上半年,鯨魚推動市場走低,而在下半年,它們的活動發生了變化,並促成了下半年的上漲。”
The report adds that as Bitcoin approached the 2024 peak, whale activity suggested their intent to sell their holdings at a large scale. This observation is based on the analysis of whale inflows and outflows from major cryptocurrency exchanges.
該報告補充說,隨著比特幣接近 2024 年的峰值,鯨魚活動表明他們打算大規模出售所持比特幣。這項觀察是基於對主要加密貨幣交易所的鯨魚流入和流出的分析。
“As we approached the February/March 2024 bull market peak, we’ve observed significant inflows from Whales (holders with over 1,000 BTC) into exchanges, signaling their intent to sell.”
“當我們接近 2024 年 2 月/3 月牛市高峰時,我們觀察到鯨魚(擁有超過 1,000 BTC 的持有者)大量資金流入交易所,表明他們有意出售。”
According to the report, the activity of these “whales” indicated that they were “cashing out,” which contributed to Bitcoin’s inability to gain further upward momentum and begin 2024.
報導稱,這些“鯨魚”的活動表明他們正在“套現”,這導致比特幣在 2024 年開始無法獲得進一步的上漲動力。
Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a technical analysis indicator that measures the magnitude of recent price changes to evaluate whether an asset is overbought or oversold. It typically ranges from 0 to 100, with 50 considered neutral. An RSI above 70 generally indicates overbought conditions, while an RSI below 30 suggests an asset may be oversold.
相對強弱指數(RSI)是一種技術分析指標,衡量近期價格變化的幅度,以評估資產是否超買或超賣。它的範圍通常為 0 到 100,其中 50 被視為中性。 RSI 高於 70 通常表示有超買狀況,而 RSI 低於 30 則表示資產可能超賣。
A golden cross occurs when the 50-day moving average (MA) crosses above the 200-day MA on a price chart, typically indicating a bullish trend. Conversely, a death cross is formed when the 50-day MA crosses below the 200-day MA, often signaling a bearish trend.
當價格圖表上 50 日移動平均線 (MA) 穿越 200 日移動平均線上方時,就會出現黃金交叉,通常表示看漲趨勢。相反,當 50 日均線低於 200 日均線時,就會形成死亡交叉,通常預示著看跌趨勢。
Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are a type of financial instrument that tracks the performance of an underlying asset, such as a stock index or commodity. They offer investors a way to gain exposure to the performance of an asset without directly purchasing it. In the context of cryptocurrencies, ETFs can provide a convenient and regulated method for investors to participate in the digital asset market.
交易所交易基金 (ETF) 是一種追蹤標的資產(例如股指或商品)表現的金融工具。它們為投資者提供了一種無需直接購買資產即可了解資產表現的方法。在加密貨幣背景下,ETF可以為投資者參與數位資產市場提供便捷且規範的方式。
Tap-to-earn games have gained popularity in the blockchain gaming space, typically offering simple and accessible gameplay mechanics. These games often reward players with virtual assets or tokens for performing simple in-game actions, such as tapping the screen or completing mini-games. Tap-to-earn games have attracted a large player base, especially in東南亞, and some even integrate elements of decentralized finance (DeFi) or non-fungible tokens (NFTs).
點擊賺錢遊戲在區塊鏈遊戲領域廣受歡迎,通常提供簡單易懂的遊戲機制。這些遊戲通常會獎勵玩家執行簡單的遊戲內操作(例如點擊螢幕或完成迷你遊戲)的虛擬資產或代幣。點擊賺錢遊戲吸引了大量玩家,尤其是在東南亞,有些遊戲甚至融入了去中心化金融(DeFi)或不可替代代幣(NFT)的元素。
Despite the massive growth in blockchain games, some critics argue that the heavy focus on financial incentives and earning virtual assets may limit the creativity and sustainability of these games. They contend that blockchain games could benefit from a broader exploration of genres, deeper storytelling and engaging gameplay experiences beyond the primary goal of earning tokens.
儘管區塊鏈遊戲大幅成長,但一些批評者認為,對經濟誘因和賺取虛擬資產的過度關注可能會限制這些遊戲的創造力和可持續性。他們認為,除了賺取代幣的主要目標之外,區塊鏈遊戲還可以從更廣泛的遊戲類型探索、更深入的故事敘述和引人入勝的遊戲體驗中受益。
Bums is a tap-to-earn game available on Telegram that has quickly gained popularity, amassing millions of players in a short amount of time. The game features a unique and humorous premise, where players扮演無家可歸者, attempting to navigate the streets and earn virtual money. Players can then use their earnings to purchase items, upgrade their character and progress through the game world.
Bums 是 Telegram 上一款點擊即可賺錢的遊戲,很快就廣受歡迎,在短時間內聚集了數百萬玩家。遊戲具有獨特而幽默的前提,玩家扮演無家可歸者,嘗試在街上行走並賺取虛擬金錢。然後,玩家可以使用他們的收入來購買物品、升級他們的角色並在遊戲世界中取得進展。
According to the 10x Research report, the last batch of major token unlocks occurred in November, and the next batch is expected to be significantly smaller. This observation suggests that the selling pressure from token unlocks will likely decrease in the coming months.
根據 10x Research 報告,最後一批主要代幣解鎖發生在 11 月份,預計下一批的規模將明顯縮小。這項觀察結果表明,代幣解鎖帶來的拋售壓力可能會在未來幾個月內減少。
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