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自三月以來,比特幣的價格經歷了一些顯著的調整。這是受到鯨魚大量拋售和大量代幣解鎖增加市場上山寨幣總供應量共同影響的。
Bitcoin’s price has undergone some interesting corrections since March, influenced heavily by significant sell-offs from whales and a massive token unlock, which increased the total supply of altcoins in the market.
自 3 月以來,比特幣的價格經歷了一些有趣的調整,這在很大程度上受到鯨魚的大幅拋售和大規模代幣解鎖的影響,這增加了市場上山寨幣的總供應量。
A recent report by 10x Research highlights these factors, countering the positive flows from stablecoins and Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), as well as the growing use of leverage in futures contracts. While it’s unfortunate that early token holders’ sales have kept prices stagnant since March, the future outlook seems to be setting up for a potential rally.
10x Research 最近的一份報告強調了這些因素,抵消了穩定幣和比特幣交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的積極流動,以及期貨合約中越來越多地使用槓桿。雖然不幸的是,自 3 月以來,早期代幣持有者的銷售使價格停滯不前,但未來前景似乎正在為潛在的反彈做好準備。
Today's report covers the reasons behind the sell-off that started in March and why, despite strong inflows from stablecoins, Bitcoin ETFs, and a rise in futures leverage, Bitcoin hasn't rallied. The main factors are heavy selling by Whales and the large token unlocks, which have …
今天的報告涵蓋了 3 月開始的拋售背後的原因,以及為什麼儘管穩定幣、比特幣 ETF 大量流入以及期貨槓桿上升,但比特幣仍未反彈。主要因素是鯨魚的大量拋售和大量代幣的解鎖,這…
— 10x Research (@10x_sq) October 4, 2024
— 10x 研究 (@10x_sq) 2024 年 10 月 4 日
Bitcoin’s price may rise in 6 to 12 months
比特幣價格可能在 6 至 12 個月內上漲
The report also notes that a potential increase in U.S. economic growth and interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve due to decreasing inflation and strong corporate profits could positively impact Bitcoin’s price over a six to twelve-month period. This may lead to a rally in the cryptocurrency despite the current corrections.
該報告還指出,由於通膨下降和企業利潤強勁,美國經濟成長的潛在成長和聯準會降息可能會在六到十二個月的時間內對比特幣的價格產生積極影響。儘管目前存在調整,但這可能會導致加密貨幣上漲。
Throughout the year, whale sell-offs have been a critical factor in Bitcoin’s performance. Those holding more than 1,000 BTC notably influenced the market, especially between April and August. The activity of these large investors indicated an intention to sell, which contributed to BTC’s inability to gain upward momentum.
全年,鯨魚拋售一直是影響比特幣表現的關鍵因素。持有超過 1,000 BTC 的人對市場影響顯著,尤其是在 4 月至 8 月期間。這些大型投資者的活動表明了拋售的意圖,這導致比特幣無法獲得上漲動力。
At the same time, the unlocking of tokens amplified the selling pressure, with around $35 billion in tokens unlocked since March. In October, $3.9 billion in unlocks were recorded, a sharp increase from $1.9 billion in September.
同時,代幣的解鎖放大了拋售壓力,自 3 月以來已解鎖了約 350 億美元的代幣。 10 月份,解鎖金額為 39 億美元,較 9 月份的 19 億美元大幅增加。
Future risks and factors to watch
未來風險及值得關注的因素
Despite the selling pressure from large transactions and the increase in token supply, institutional flows, which include investments in ETFs, stablecoins, and futures markets, helped stabilize the market. These flows, although neutralized by selling, prevented more abrupt price declines.
儘管大額交易帶來拋售壓力以及代幣供應增加,但包括 ETF、穩定幣和期貨市場投資在內的機構流動仍有助於穩定市場。這些資金流雖然被拋售所抵消,但阻止了價格進一步急劇下跌。
However, the macroeconomic environment, marked by uncertainty about employment in the U.S., influenced market volatility, indicating that as the institutional flows continue, they will play a key role in the dynamics of the crypto market.
然而,以美國就業不確定性為特徵的宏觀經濟環境影響了市場波動,這表明隨著機構流動的持續,它們將在加密貨幣市場的動態中發揮關鍵作用。
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