比特币状况可能在 6 至 12 个月内有所改善

自三月份以来，比特币的价格经历了一些显着的调整。这是受到鲸鱼大量抛售和大量代币解锁增加市场上山寨币总供应量共同影响的。

Bitcoin’s price has undergone some interesting corrections since March, influenced heavily by significant sell-offs from whales and a massive token unlock, which increased the total supply of altcoins in the market.

自 3 月份以来，比特币的价格经历了一些有趣的调整，这在很大程度上受到鲸鱼的大幅抛售和大规模代币解锁的影响，这增加了市场上山寨币的总供应量。

A recent report by 10x Research highlights these factors, countering the positive flows from stablecoins and Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), as well as the growing use of leverage in futures contracts. While it’s unfortunate that early token holders’ sales have kept prices stagnant since March, the future outlook seems to be setting up for a potential rally.

10x Research 最近的一份报告强调了这些因素，抵消了稳定币和比特币交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的积极流动，以及期货合约中越来越多地使用杠杆。虽然不幸的是，自 3 月份以来，早期代币持有者的销售使价格停滞不前，但未来前景似乎正在为潜在的反弹做好准备。

Today's report covers the reasons behind the sell-off that started in March and why, despite strong inflows from stablecoins, Bitcoin ETFs, and a rise in futures leverage, Bitcoin hasn't rallied. The main factors are heavy selling by Whales and the large token unlocks, which have …

今天的报告涵盖了 3 月份开始的抛售背后的原因，以及为什么尽管稳定币、比特币 ETF 大量流入以及期货杠杆上升，但比特币仍未反弹。主要因素是鲸鱼的大量抛售和大量代币的解锁，这……

— 10x Research (@10x_sq) October 4, 2024

— 10x 研究 (@10x_sq) 2024 年 10 月 4 日

Bitcoin’s price may rise in 6 to 12 months

比特币价格可能在 6 至 12 个月内上涨

The report also notes that a potential increase in U.S. economic growth and interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve due to decreasing inflation and strong corporate profits could positively impact Bitcoin’s price over a six to twelve-month period. This may lead to a rally in the cryptocurrency despite the current corrections.

该报告还指出，由于通胀下降和企业利润强劲，美国经济增长的潜在增长和美联储降息可能会在六到十二个月的时间内对比特币的价格产生积极影响。尽管目前存在调整，但这可能会导致加密货币上涨。

Throughout the year, whale sell-offs have been a critical factor in Bitcoin’s performance. Those holding more than 1,000 BTC notably influenced the market, especially between April and August. The activity of these large investors indicated an intention to sell, which contributed to BTC’s inability to gain upward momentum.

全年，鲸鱼抛售一直是影响比特币表现的关键因素。持有超过 1,000 BTC 的人对市场影响显着，尤其是在 4 月至 8 月期间。这些大型投资者的活动表明了抛售的意图，这导致比特币无法获得上涨动力。

At the same time, the unlocking of tokens amplified the selling pressure, with around $35 billion in tokens unlocked since March. In October, $3.9 billion in unlocks were recorded, a sharp increase from $1.9 billion in September.

与此同时，代币的解锁放大了抛售压力，自 3 月份以来已解锁了约 350 亿美元的代币。 10 月份解锁金额为 39 亿美元，较 9 月份的 19 亿美元大幅增加。

Future risks and factors to watch

未来风险及值得关注的因素

Despite the selling pressure from large transactions and the increase in token supply, institutional flows, which include investments in ETFs, stablecoins, and futures markets, helped stabilize the market. These flows, although neutralized by selling, prevented more abrupt price declines.

尽管大额交易带来抛售压力以及代币供应增加，但包括 ETF、稳定币和期货市场投资在内的机构流动仍有助于稳定市场。这些资金流虽然被抛售所抵消，但阻止了价格进一步急剧下跌。

However, the macroeconomic environment, marked by uncertainty about employment in the U.S., influenced market volatility, indicating that as the institutional flows continue, they will play a key role in the dynamics of the crypto market.

然而，以美国就业不确定性为特征的宏观经济环境影响了市场波动，这表明随着机构流动的持续，它们将在加密货币市场的动态中发挥关键作用。