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對於渣打銀行數位資產研究全球總監 Geoff Kendrick 來說,當前的地緣政治局勢顯示價格會下跌
As geopolitical tensions escalate in the Middle East, with Israeli airstrikes hitting Beirut, ground forces entering southern Lebanon and Iran launching airstrikes on Israel, markets are paying close attention. According to Geoff Kendrick, global director of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, these tensions are likely to push Bitcoin (BTC) below the $60,000 mark by the weekend.
隨著中東地緣政治緊張局勢升級,以色列空襲貝魯特、地面部隊進入黎巴嫩南部以及伊朗對以色列發動空襲,市場密切關注。渣打銀行數位資產研究全球總監 Geoff Kendrick 表示,這些緊張局勢可能會在周末推動比特幣 (BTC) 跌破 6 萬美元大關。
However, the analyst also urges investors to view any potential downturn as a buying opportunity. Interestingly, Polymarket is showing a slight shift in the chances of Donald Trump beating Kamala Harris in the U.S. presidential elections on Nov. 5. While the current vice president has been narrowly favored for several weeks, the trend on the decentralized prediction market platform has reversed. Trump’s chances of winning have increased by about 1%, while those of Harris have decreased.
不過,分析師也敦促投資者將任何潛在的低迷視為買入機會。有趣的是,Polymarket 顯示唐納德·川普(Donald Trump) 在11 月5 日美國總統選舉中擊敗卡馬拉·哈里斯(Kamala Harris) 的機會略有變化。微弱優勢獲得支持,但去中心化預測市場平台上的趨勢已經逆轉。川普的獲勝幾率增加了約1%,而哈里斯的獲勝幾率則有所下降。
In total, the Democratic candidate’s chances of winning the election now stand at 49%, while Trump’s have risen to 50%.
總體而言,民主黨候選人贏得選舉的機會目前為 49%,而川普則上升至 50%。
This shift in electoral trend is also having an impact on the price of BTC, suggesting an increase in the coming months if Trump were to win, Kendrick noted:
肯德里克指出,選舉趨勢的這種轉變也對比特幣的價格產生了影響,這表明如果川普獲勝,比特幣的價格將在未來幾個月內上漲:
“This creates an interesting circularity for Bitcoin. Geopolitical concerns may depress prices, but those same concerns appear to boost Trump's chances, potentially improving Bitcoin's post-election outlook.”
「這為比特幣創造了一個有趣的循環。地緣政治擔憂可能會壓低價格,但同樣的擔憂似乎會增加川普當選的機會,從而可能改善比特幣在選舉後的前景。
Many analysts have suggested that a Trump victory in the U.S. elections would be bullish for cryptocurrencies, while a Harris win would be bearish for Bitcoin, according to these same analysts. Standard Chartered’s global head of digital asset research seems to agree with this sentiment but adds that there could be great opportunities for investors:
許多分析師表示,川普在美國大選中獲勝將利好加密貨幣,而哈里斯獲勝將利空比特幣。渣打銀行數位資產研究全球主管似乎同意這種觀點,但他補充說,投資人可能有很大的機會:
“A Harris victory would likely trigger an initial drop in prices, but we expect investors to buy the dips as the market recognizes that progress on the regulatory front is still to come.”
“哈里斯的勝利可能會引發價格最初下跌,但我們預計投資者會逢低買入,因為市場認識到監管方面的進展仍有待實現。”
Lastly, the analyst also highlighted that recent market activity showed a significant build-up in call options positions on Bitcoin. This growing demand for call options suggests that many traders are betting on upward price movements, which could be contributing to a bullish outlook for Bitcoin.
最後,分析師也強調,最近的市場活動顯示比特幣看漲選擇權部位大幅增加。對看漲期權的需求不斷增長表明,許多交易者押注價格上漲,這可能有助於比特幣的看漲前景。
“The amount of open interest on the call option for the Dec. 27 expiration at a strike price of $80,000 on Derebit rose by 1,300 Bitcoins in the last two days,” he noted.
他指出:“過去兩天,Derebit 上 12 月 27 日到期、執行價格為 80,000 美元的看漲期權的未平倉合約數量增加了 1,300 個比特幣。”
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