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对于渣打银行数字资产研究全球总监 Geoff Kendrick 来说,当前的地缘政治局势表明价格会下跌
As geopolitical tensions escalate in the Middle East, with Israeli airstrikes hitting Beirut, ground forces entering southern Lebanon and Iran launching airstrikes on Israel, markets are paying close attention. According to Geoff Kendrick, global director of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, these tensions are likely to push Bitcoin (BTC) below the $60,000 mark by the weekend.
随着中东地缘政治紧张局势升级,以色列空袭贝鲁特、地面部队进入黎巴嫩南部以及伊朗对以色列发动空袭,市场密切关注。渣打银行数字资产研究全球总监 Geoff Kendrick 表示,这些紧张局势可能会在周末推动比特币 (BTC) 跌破 60,000 美元大关。
However, the analyst also urges investors to view any potential downturn as a buying opportunity. Interestingly, Polymarket is showing a slight shift in the chances of Donald Trump beating Kamala Harris in the U.S. presidential elections on Nov. 5. While the current vice president has been narrowly favored for several weeks, the trend on the decentralized prediction market platform has reversed. Trump’s chances of winning have increased by about 1%, while those of Harris have decreased.
不过,分析师还敦促投资者将任何潜在的低迷视为买入机会。有趣的是,Polymarket 显示唐纳德·特朗普 (Donald Trump) 在 11 月 5 日美国总统选举中击败卡马拉·哈里斯 (Kamala Harris) 的机会略有变化。尽管现任副总统几周来一直以微弱优势获得支持,但去中心化预测市场平台上的趋势已经逆转。特朗普的获胜几率增加了约1%,而哈里斯的获胜几率则有所下降。
In total, the Democratic candidate’s chances of winning the election now stand at 49%, while Trump’s have risen to 50%.
总体而言,民主党候选人赢得选举的机会目前为 49%,而特朗普则上升至 50%。
This shift in electoral trend is also having an impact on the price of BTC, suggesting an increase in the coming months if Trump were to win, Kendrick noted:
肯德里克指出,选举趋势的这种转变也对比特币的价格产生了影响,这表明如果特朗普获胜,比特币的价格将在未来几个月内上涨:
“This creates an interesting circularity for Bitcoin. Geopolitical concerns may depress prices, but those same concerns appear to boost Trump's chances, potentially improving Bitcoin's post-election outlook.”
“这为比特币创造了一个有趣的循环。地缘政治担忧可能会压低价格,但同样的担忧似乎会增加特朗普当选的机会,从而可能改善比特币在选举后的前景。”
Many analysts have suggested that a Trump victory in the U.S. elections would be bullish for cryptocurrencies, while a Harris win would be bearish for Bitcoin, according to these same analysts. Standard Chartered’s global head of digital asset research seems to agree with this sentiment but adds that there could be great opportunities for investors:
许多分析师表示,特朗普在美国大选中获胜将利好加密货币,而哈里斯获胜将利空比特币。渣打银行数字资产研究全球主管似乎同意这种观点,但他补充说,投资者可能面临巨大的机会:
“A Harris victory would likely trigger an initial drop in prices, but we expect investors to buy the dips as the market recognizes that progress on the regulatory front is still to come.”
“哈里斯的胜利可能会引发价格最初下跌,但我们预计投资者会逢低买入,因为市场认识到监管方面的进展仍有待实现。”
Lastly, the analyst also highlighted that recent market activity showed a significant build-up in call options positions on Bitcoin. This growing demand for call options suggests that many traders are betting on upward price movements, which could be contributing to a bullish outlook for Bitcoin.
最后,分析师还强调,最近的市场活动显示比特币看涨期权头寸大幅增加。对看涨期权的需求不断增长表明,许多交易者押注价格上涨,这可能有助于比特币的看涨前景。
“The amount of open interest on the call option for the Dec. 27 expiration at a strike price of $80,000 on Derebit rose by 1,300 Bitcoins in the last two days,” he noted.
他指出:“过去两天,Derebit 上 12 月 27 日到期、执行价格为 80,000 美元的看涨期权的未平仓合约数量增加了 1,300 个比特币。”
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