比特币（BTC）接近耗尽，“新比特币持有者的实际上限”指标闪烁着警告信号

一位定量分析师强调了比特币“新比特币持有者已实现上限”指标中出现的令人信服的模式，表明当前的牛市周期可能已接近尾声。

A quantitative analyst has drawn attention to an interesting pattern emerging in Bitcoin’s “Realized Cap of New Bitcoin Holders” indicator, which could indicate that the current bull cycle may be coming to an end.

一位定量分析师引起了人们对比特币“新比特币持有者已实现上限”指标中出现的一个有趣模式的关注，这可能表明当前的牛市周期可能即将结束。

The Realized Cap metric calculates the market capitalization of Bitcoin based on the price at which each coin last moved, rather than its current market value. The “Realized Cap of New Bitcoin Holders” focuses specifically on coins held by newer market participants—typically defined as those who entered the market within a certain time frame, such as the past six months.

已实现上限指标根据每种货币最后变动的价格而不是当前市场价值来计算比特币的市值。 “新比特币持有者的已实现上限”特别关注新市场参与者持有的代币——通常定义为在特定时间范围内（例如过去六个月）进入市场的参与者。

When this metric increases, it suggests that new investors are accumulating Bitcoin at higher prices, which is often indicative of growing optimism during bull markets. Conversely, a plateau or decline can imply that these investors are stepping back, which could signal potential weakness in the market.

当该指标增加时，表明新投资者正在以更高的价格积累比特币，这通常表明牛市期间乐观情绪不断增强。相反，停滞或下降可能意味着这些投资者正在退出，这可能预示着市场潜在的疲软。

According to the quant, the Realized Cap of New Bitcoin Holders has reached a level that has been historically associated with the final stages of previous bull cycles. This is particularly noteworthy because these stages often precede market corrections, as the influx of new capital slows and profit-taking behavior intensifies.

根据量化分析师的说法，新比特币持有者的已实现上限已达到历史上与先前牛市周期最后阶段相关的水平。这一点尤其值得注意，因为这些阶段往往先于市场调整，因为新资本流入放缓，获利回吐行为加剧。

If the pattern holds true, it may indicate that Bitcoin’s current rally is approaching a peak. Several factors typically align with the end of a bull cycle:

如果该模式成立，则可能表明比特币当前的涨势已接近顶峰。牛市周期结束时通常有几个因素：

- Diminishing returns on investment: As an asset appreciates over time, the potential for further gains decreases, making it less attractive for investors.

- 投资回报递减：随着资产随着时间的推移升值，进一步收益的潜力会降低，从而降低对投资者的吸引力。

- Profit-taking behavior: Investors who purchased an asset at lower prices may choose to sell once it reaches a certain level of profitability.

- 获利了结行为：以较低价格购买资产的投资者可能会在资产达到一定盈利水平后选择出售。

- Fear of missing out (FOMO) fading: A bull market is often fueled by FOMO, as new investors rush to buy an asset that is already performing well. However, as the market matures, this buying pressure tends to subside.

- 害怕错过（FOMO）的消退：牛市通常是由 FOMO 推动的，因为新投资者争先恐后地购买已经表现良好的资产。然而，随着市场的成熟，这种购买压力往往会减弱。

- Macroeconomic factors: Interest rate hikes, inflation, and other large-scale economic events can impact the stock, bond, and cryptocurrency markets simultaneously.

- 宏观经济因素：加息、通货膨胀和其他大规模经济事件可能同时影响股票、债券和加密货币市场。

While this indicator provides a useful historical reference, it is not a definitive predictor of market behavior. The cryptocurrency market is influenced by a wide range of factors, including macroeconomic trends, institutional activity, and geopolitical developments.

虽然该指标提供了有用的历史参考，但它并不是市场行为的明确预测指标。加密货币市场受到多种因素的影响，包括宏观经济趋势、机构活动和地缘政治发展。

For instance, Bitcoin adoption by large institutions and favorable regulatory developments could sustain the rally longer than expected, even in the face of waning participation from retail investors.

例如，即使散户投资者的参与度逐渐减弱，大型机构对比特币的采用以及有利的监管发展也可能使涨势维持的时间比预期更长。

Ultimately, traders and analysts should consider multiple lines of evidence, including price action, technical analysis, and on-chain metrics, to form a comprehensive view of the market.

最终，交易员和分析师应考虑多种证据，包括价格走势、技术分析和链上指标，以形成对市场的全面看法。

Key Levels to Watch

值得关注的关键水平

As Bitcoin continues to rally, traders and analysts are keeping a close eye on the next resistance levels and on-chain metrics to confirm whether the pattern signals a local top or if the rally still has legs.

随着比特币继续上涨，交易员和分析师正在密切关注下一个阻力位和链上指标，以确认该模式是否预示着局部顶部或反弹是否仍然存在。

According to several analysts, the next key resistance level for BTC is around $38,000 – $39,000, which coincides with the 1.27 Fib extension and the 200-day moving average.

几位分析师表示，BTC 的下一个关键阻力位约为 38,000 至 39,000 美元，与 1.27 斐波那契延伸线和 200 日移动均线一致。

If BTC fails to break through this level and is rejected, it could lead to a local top and a correction. However, if it manages to close above this resistance zone, it could open the door for further gains towards $42,000 and potentially even higher.

如果BTC未能突破该水平并被拒绝，则可能会导致局部顶部和回调。然而，如果它成功收于该阻力区上方，则可能为进一步上涨至 42,000 美元甚至更高打开大门。

The Realized Cap of New Bitcoin Holders is a reminder of the importance of monitoring on-chain data, especially during periods of heightened market activity. While the indicator hints at a possible end to the bull cycle, it also highlights the complex interplay of investor behavior that defines Bitcoin’s price trajectory.

新比特币持有者的已实现上限提醒人们监控链上数据的重要性，尤其是在市场活动加剧期间。虽然该指标暗示牛市周期可能结束，但它也凸显了定义比特币价格轨迹的投资者行为的复杂相互作用。