比特幣（BTC）接近耗盡，「新比特幣持有者的實際上限」指標閃爍著警告訊號

一位定量分析師強調了比特幣「新比特幣持有者已實現上限」指標中出現的令人信服的模式，表明當前的牛市週期可能已接近尾聲。

A quantitative analyst has drawn attention to an interesting pattern emerging in Bitcoin’s “Realized Cap of New Bitcoin Holders” indicator, which could indicate that the current bull cycle may be coming to an end.

一位定量分析師引起了人們對比特幣「新比特幣持有者已實現上限」指標中出現的一個有趣模式的關注，這可能表明當前的牛市週期可能即將結束。

The Realized Cap metric calculates the market capitalization of Bitcoin based on the price at which each coin last moved, rather than its current market value. The “Realized Cap of New Bitcoin Holders” focuses specifically on coins held by newer market participants—typically defined as those who entered the market within a certain time frame, such as the past six months.

已實現上限指標根據每種貨幣最後變動的價格而不是當前市場價值來計算比特幣的市值。 「新比特幣持有者的已實現上限」特別關注新市場參與者持有的代幣——通常定義為在特定時間範圍內（例如過去六個月）進入市場的參與者。

When this metric increases, it suggests that new investors are accumulating Bitcoin at higher prices, which is often indicative of growing optimism during bull markets. Conversely, a plateau or decline can imply that these investors are stepping back, which could signal potential weakness in the market.

當該指標增加時，表明新投資者正在以更高的價格累積比特幣，這通常表明牛市期間樂觀情緒不斷增強。相反，停滯或下降可能意味著這些投資者正在退出，這可能預示著市場潛在的疲軟。

According to the quant, the Realized Cap of New Bitcoin Holders has reached a level that has been historically associated with the final stages of previous bull cycles. This is particularly noteworthy because these stages often precede market corrections, as the influx of new capital slows and profit-taking behavior intensifies.

根據量化分析師的說法，新比特幣持有者的已實現上限已達到歷史上與先前牛市週期最後階段相關的水平。這點尤其值得注意，因為這些階段往往先於市場調整，因為新資本流入放緩，獲利回吐行為加劇。

If the pattern holds true, it may indicate that Bitcoin’s current rally is approaching a peak. Several factors typically align with the end of a bull cycle:

如果該模式成立，則可能表示比特幣當前的漲勢已接近頂峰。牛市週期結束時通常有幾個因素：

- Diminishing returns on investment: As an asset appreciates over time, the potential for further gains decreases, making it less attractive for investors.

- 投資回報遞減：隨著資產隨著時間的推移而升值，進一步收益的潛力會降低，從而降低對投資者的吸引力。

- Profit-taking behavior: Investors who purchased an asset at lower prices may choose to sell once it reaches a certain level of profitability.

- 獲利了結行為：以較低價格購買資產的投資者可能會在資產達到一定獲利水準後選擇出售。

- Fear of missing out (FOMO) fading: A bull market is often fueled by FOMO, as new investors rush to buy an asset that is already performing well. However, as the market matures, this buying pressure tends to subside.

- 害怕錯過（FOMO）的消退：牛市通常是由 FOMO 推動的，因為新投資者爭先恐後地購買已經表現良好的資產。然而，隨著市場的成熟，這種購買壓力往往會減弱。

- Macroeconomic factors: Interest rate hikes, inflation, and other large-scale economic events can impact the stock, bond, and cryptocurrency markets simultaneously.

- 宏觀經濟因素：升息、通貨膨脹和其他大規模經濟事件可能同時影響股票、債券和加密貨幣市場。

While this indicator provides a useful historical reference, it is not a definitive predictor of market behavior. The cryptocurrency market is influenced by a wide range of factors, including macroeconomic trends, institutional activity, and geopolitical developments.

雖然該指標提供了有用的歷史參考，但它並不是市場行為的明確預測指標。加密貨幣市場受到多種因素的影響，包括宏觀經濟趨勢、機構活動和地緣政治發展。

For instance, Bitcoin adoption by large institutions and favorable regulatory developments could sustain the rally longer than expected, even in the face of waning participation from retail investors.

例如，即使散戶的參與度逐漸減弱，大型機構對比特幣的採用以及有利的監管發展也可能使漲勢維持的時間比預期更長。

Ultimately, traders and analysts should consider multiple lines of evidence, including price action, technical analysis, and on-chain metrics, to form a comprehensive view of the market.

最終，交易員和分析師應考慮多種證據，包括價格趨勢、技術分析和鏈上指標，以形成對市場的全面看法。

Key Levels to Watch

值得關注的關鍵水平

As Bitcoin continues to rally, traders and analysts are keeping a close eye on the next resistance levels and on-chain metrics to confirm whether the pattern signals a local top or if the rally still has legs.

隨著比特幣繼續上漲，交易員和分析師正在密切關注下一個阻力位和鏈上指標，以確認模式是否預示局部頂部或反彈是否仍然存在。

According to several analysts, the next key resistance level for BTC is around $38,000 – $39,000, which coincides with the 1.27 Fib extension and the 200-day moving average.

幾位分析師表示，BTC 的下一個關鍵阻力位約為 38,000 至 39,000 美元，與 1.27 斐波那契延伸線和 200 日移動均線一致。

If BTC fails to break through this level and is rejected, it could lead to a local top and a correction. However, if it manages to close above this resistance zone, it could open the door for further gains towards $42,000 and potentially even higher.

如果BTC未能突破該水平並被拒絕，則可能會導致局部頂部和回調。然而，如果它成功收於該阻力區上方，則可能為進一步上漲至 42,000 美元甚至更高打開大門。

The Realized Cap of New Bitcoin Holders is a reminder of the importance of monitoring on-chain data, especially during periods of heightened market activity. While the indicator hints at a possible end to the bull cycle, it also highlights the complex interplay of investor behavior that defines Bitcoin’s price trajectory.

新比特幣持有者的已實現上限提醒我們監控鏈上數據的重要性，尤其是在市場活動加劇期間。雖然該指標暗示牛市週期可能結束，但它也凸顯了定義比特幣價格軌跡的投資者行為的複雜交互作用。