比特币（BTC）和纳斯达克都被锤击，日元（JPY）飙升

这种市场行动看起来很像8月初发生的事情，这引发了一个问题，即我们是否会看到类似的结果。从历史上看，低收益的日元一直是全球资产价格支持的来源，因此，它最近的跃升可能是最新的风险规避浪潮击中加密货币和股票市场。摩根·鲁西（Morgan Routhier）。

Nasdaq and Bitcoin (BTC) suffered setbacks in recent weeks as Japanese government bond yields rose and the Japanese yen (JPY), a preferred safe haven currency, gained value. This market activity closely resembles what occurred in early August, sparking interest in whether a similar outcome is on the horizon.

纳斯达克和比特币（BTC）在最近几周遭受了挫折，因为日本政府债券收益率上升，日元（JPY）（一种首选的避风港货币）获得了价值。这种市场活动与8月初发生的事情非常相似，这引起了人们对是否出现类似结果的兴趣。

Historically, the low-yielding yen has provided support for global asset prices. Its recent surge could be a factor in the latest wave of risk aversion affecting both crypto and stock markets.

从历史上看，低收益的日元为全球资产价格提供了支持。它最近的激增可能是影响加密和股票市场的最新风险规避浪潮的一个因素。

Yen Rally ‘Too Far, Too Fast’

日元集会“太远，太快”

However, the yen’s bullish run might be reaching its peak. Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTTC), tracked by MacroMicro, reveals that bets on the yen (speculative long positions) reached a record high last week.

但是，日元的看涨奔跑可能正在达到顶峰。 Macromicro跟踪的商品期货交易委员会（CFTTC）的数据表明，上周对日元（投机性长位）的赌注达到了创纪录的高度。

Usually, when traders heavily favor one side of a trade, it sets the stage for a reversal. As traders begin closing out these crowded positions, it can lead to a rapid decline in the asset's price.

通常，当交易者极大地支持交易的一方面时，它为逆转奠定了基础。随着交易者开始结束这些拥挤的职位，这可能导致资产价格迅速下降。

This suggests that the yen’s upward climb might be slowing down, which could be beneficial for riskier assets like Bitcoin and the Nasdaq. Morgan Stanley's G10 FX Strategy team also hinted at this possibility on Friday, advising against expecting further gains in the yen.

这表明日元的上升攀登可能会放慢速度，这可能对比特币和纳斯达克等风险的资产有益。摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的G10 FX战略团队还暗示了这一可能性，建议不要预期日元。

They highlighted the "stretched" bets on the yen and strong interest from Japanese investors to buy on dips in the yen as key factors.

他们强调了日元对日元的“伸展”赌注，日元投资者对日元的倾销购买作为关键因素。

The team explained that many Japanese investors utilize the Nippon Individual Savings Account (NISA) to purchase foreign assets when markets become unstable, which can mitigate the pace of the yen's rise. Additionally, Japan's public pension system tends to respond to market trends by selling yen-denominated assets when the yen becomes too strong.

该小组解释说，许多日本投资者利用日本个人储蓄帐户（NISA）在市场变得不稳定时购买外国资产，这可以减轻日元的增长。此外，日元变得太强大时，日本的公共养老金制度倾向于通过出售日元计数的资产来响应市场趋势。

"Indeed, such a scenario occurred last August following a sharp appreciation of the JPY and a pronounced sell-off in equities," strategists remarked.

战略家说：“确实，这种情况发生在去年八月，在对JPY的敏锐欣赏和股票中明显的抛售之后，发生了这种情况。”

If history repeats itself, we could see Nasdaq and Bitcoin rebounding as traders pivot out of the yen and back into risk assets.

如果历史重演，我们可以看到纳斯达克和比特币反弹，因为交易员从日元中转移到风险资产中。

As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $80,945.10, showing a minor decrease of 0.41% in the past 24 hours. However, there's a significant increase in trading volume, up 50.78% to $60 billion, indicating more activity in the market.

截至目前，比特币的交易价格为80,945.10美元，在过去24小时内略有下降0.41％。但是，交易量的增长显着增加，增长了50.78％，达到600亿美元，这表明市场上的活动更多。

Technical Analysis Hints at Potential Bitcoin Bounce

技术分析暗示潜在的比特币反弹

The Bollinger Bands (BB) indicate that Bitcoin is testing the lower band, which could suggest oversold conditions for the asset. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently around $87.7K, might act as resistance if BTC attempts a rebound.

布林乐队（BB）表明比特币正在测试下部频段，这可能表明资产的超售条件。如果BTC尝试反弹，目前约为87.7万美元的20天指数移动平均值（EMA）可能是阻力。

If Bitcoin breaks decisively above this EMA, it could pave the way for a move towards the upper Bollinger Band limit, which is around $99.5K.

如果比特币果断地超过此EMA，它可能为朝上Bollinger Band Limit限制的道路铺平了道路，该限额约为99.5万美元。

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