比特币（BTC）市场在特朗普政府中的表现尚未预期

到目前为止，加密市场尚未在特朗普政府下的表现。投资者希望，监管改革和比特币战略储备等政策将使价格明显提高。

Investors may be hoping for administrative action to drive crypto prices higher. But could tariffs actually help push investors towards bitcoin in 2020?

投资者可能希望采取行政行动，以提高加密货币价格。但是关税真的可以帮助投资者在2020年推向比特币吗？

Crypto markets haven’t exactly behaved as expected under the Trump Administration. Investors anticipated that regulatory reform and policies like a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve would drive prices appreciably higher. But it’s been the opposite. Bitcoin has fallen from highs well above $100,000 at the beginning of the year to a trough in the mid-80,000s for most of March.

加密市场的行为并未完全像特朗普政府那样。投资者预计，监管改革和比特币战略储备等政策将使价格明显更高。但这是相反的。在3月初的大部分时间里，比特币在年初从高于100,000美元的高价下降到了80,000年代中期的低谷。

Crypto prices have suffered from being increasingly correlated with traditional assets like stocks and bonds, which have been hit by macroeconomic uncertainty. Tariffs – surcharges the U.S. places on imports from other countries – have Wall Street worried about a global recession. Crypto investors have been steering clear of crypto assets, which are seen as relatively risky.

加密价格与传统资产（如股票和债券）越来越相关，这些资产受到宏观经济不确定性的影响。关税 - 向美国附加费用从其他国家进口的地方 - 华尔街担心全球衰退。加密投资者一直在避开加密资产，这些资产被认为是相对风险的。

“This is all about markets’ ‘risk appetite’ which continues to deteriorate, and for the time being drives a wedge between crypto assets and gold, which continues to be the ‘safe haven’ of choice,” said Marc Ostwald, Chief Economist & Global Strategist at ADM Investor Services International.

“这一切都是关于市场的“风险胃口”，这种胃口继续恶化，并且目前正在加密资产和黄金之间的楔子，这仍然是首选的“避风港”。”

“[That’s] in no small part driven by central bank FX reserve managers, who are seeking to reduce USD exposure, which has long been a source of concern to them.”

“这在很大程度上是由中央银行FX储备经理驱动的，他们试图减少美元的曝光率，这一直是他们关注的根源。”

As the global financial and trade system becomes more fragmented, investors are seeking alternatives to riskier assets, including dollars. For now, that means turning to gold, which is up 18% year-to-date.

随着全球金融和贸易体系变得更加分散，投资者正在寻求替代风险资产（包括美元）的替代品。就目前而言，这意味着要求助于黄金，该黄金始终增长18％。

But that could change, said Omid Malekan, an adjunct professor at Columbia Business School and author of "The Story of the Blockchain: A Beginner's Guide to the Technology That Nobody Understands." Bitcoin could be the new gold soon enough.

哥伦比亚商学院的兼职教授Omid Malekan说，但这可能会改变，也是《区块链故事：没有人理解的技术的初学者指南》的作者。比特币可能很快就可以成为新的黄金。

“I think the entire [future] is uncertain and in some ways unknowable, because there are many crosscurrents and both crypto and tariffs are new. Some people argue that crypto is just a risk-on tech asset and would sell off due to tariffs. But bitcoin has found footing in some circles as ‘digital gold’ and the physical variety is soaring on the tariff news. So which will it be?”

“我认为整个[未来]是不确定的，并且在某些方面是不可知的，因为有很多交叉流，加密和关税都是新的。有人认为加密货币只是一种风险的技术资产，并且会因关税而卖出。但是，由于比特币在某些圈子中找到了一些圈子，因为“数字金色”和“物理品种”在“数字黄金”上飙升了，因此可以在征收征收的情况下，这是a''，所以这是一个征收的征收。

In other words, economic uncertainty could lead investors to seek out bitcoin just as they have sought out gold in recent months.

换句话说，经济不确定性可能会导致投资者像近几个月来寻找黄金一样寻找比特币。

Another note of positivity: the impact of tariffs on crypto could be “priced in” and the worst might be over already, said Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, a leading crypto asset management firm.

阳性的另一个注意事项是：关税对加密货币的影响可能“定价”，最糟糕的情况可能已经结束了，Grayscale的研究负责人Zach Pandl说。

President Trump is due to announce U.S. tariffs on Wednesday, April 2, at 4 p.m. ET—what’s known as “Liberation Day.” According to reports, he’ll lay out “reciprocal tariffs” against 15 countries that have levied tariffs against the U.S., including China, Canada and Mexico.

特朗普总统将于4月2日（星期三）美国东部时间下午4点宣布美国关税，这就是“解放日”。据报道，他将针对对包括中国，加拿大和墨西哥在内的美国征收关税的15个国家的“相互关税”。

Pandl estimates tariffs have so far taken 2% off economic growth this year. But Liberation Day might actually stop the worst of the pain felt in financial markets. “If we see an announcement [on Wednesday] that is tough but phased, and focused on the 15 countries they seem to be targeting, my expectation is that markets will rally on that news,” Pandl told CoinDesk.

PANDL估计，今年的关税迄今已降低了2％的经济增长。但是，解放日实际上可能会阻止金融市场上最严重的痛苦。潘德尔告诉Coindesk：“如果我们看到（星期三）的公告很艰难，但分阶段是分阶段，并且专注于他们似乎正在瞄准的15个国家，那么我的期望是市场将在这一消息上集会。”

“Potentially once we get through this announcement, crypto markets can focus back on the fundamentals which are very positive.”

“一旦我们通过这一公告，加密市场就可以重新集中在非常积极的基本面上。”

Pandl said announcements like Circle’s IPO wouldn’t be happening if institutions didn’t have a high degree of confidence in the digital assets sector and the policies around it.

Pandl说，如果机构对数字资产行业及其周围的政策没有高度的信心，那么Circle的IPO等公告就不会发生。

Moreover, Pandl, a former macro-economist at Goldman Sachs, believes that tariffs will increase the appetite for currencies that aren’t dollars.

此外，高盛（Goldman Sachs）的前宏观经济学家潘德（Pandl）认为，关税将增加对不美元的货币的需求。

“I think tariffs will weaken the dominant role of the dollar and create space for competitors including bitcoin. Prices have gone down in the short run. But the first few months of the Trump Administration have raised my conviction in the longer term for bitcoin as a global monetary asset.”

“我认为关税将削弱美元的主要作用，并为包括比特币在内的竞争对手创造空间。价格在短期内下跌。但是，特朗普政府的前几个月，我对比特币作为全球货币资产的长期信念提高了我的信念。”

Pendl still believes that bitcoin will hit new all-time highs this year, despite current pessimism around prices. “I wouldn’t have quit my Wall Street job if I didn’t think bitcoin will be the winner in the long term,” he said.

Pendl仍然认为，尽管目前对价格感到悲观，但今年比特币将达到新的历史最高点。他说：“如果我认为比特币长期以来不会成为赢家，我就不会退出华尔街的工作。”