比特幣（BTC）市場在特朗普政府中的表現尚未預期

到目前為止，加密市場尚未在特朗普政府下的表現。投資者希望，監管改革和比特幣戰略儲備等政策將使價格明顯提高。

Investors may be hoping for administrative action to drive crypto prices higher. But could tariffs actually help push investors towards bitcoin in 2020?

投資者可能希望採取行政行動，以提高加密貨幣價格。但是關稅真的可以幫助投資者在2020年推向比特幣嗎？

Crypto markets haven’t exactly behaved as expected under the Trump Administration. Investors anticipated that regulatory reform and policies like a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve would drive prices appreciably higher. But it’s been the opposite. Bitcoin has fallen from highs well above $100,000 at the beginning of the year to a trough in the mid-80,000s for most of March.

加密市場的行為並未完全像特朗普政府那樣。投資者預計，監管改革和比特幣戰略儲備等政策將使價格明顯提高。但這是相反的。在3月初的大部分時間裡，比特幣在年初從高於100,000美元的高價下降到了80,000年代中期的低谷。

Crypto prices have suffered from being increasingly correlated with traditional assets like stocks and bonds, which have been hit by macroeconomic uncertainty. Tariffs – surcharges the U.S. places on imports from other countries – have Wall Street worried about a global recession. Crypto investors have been steering clear of crypto assets, which are seen as relatively risky.

加密價格與傳統資產（如股票和債券）越來越相關，這些資產受到宏觀經濟不確定性的影響。關稅 - 向美國附加費用從其他國家進口的地方 - 華爾街擔心全球衰退。加密投資者一直在避開加密資產，這些資產被認為是相對風險的。

“This is all about markets’ ‘risk appetite’ which continues to deteriorate, and for the time being drives a wedge between crypto assets and gold, which continues to be the ‘safe haven’ of choice,” said Marc Ostwald, Chief Economist & Global Strategist at ADM Investor Services International.

“這一切都是關於市場的“風險胃口”，這種胃口繼續惡化，並且目前正在加密資產和黃金之間的楔子，這仍然是首選的“避風港”。”

“[That’s] in no small part driven by central bank FX reserve managers, who are seeking to reduce USD exposure, which has long been a source of concern to them.”

“這在很大程度上是由中央銀行FX儲備經理驅動的，他們試圖減少美元的曝光率，這一直是他們關注的根源。”

As the global financial and trade system becomes more fragmented, investors are seeking alternatives to riskier assets, including dollars. For now, that means turning to gold, which is up 18% year-to-date.

隨著全球金融和貿易體系變得更加分散，投資者正在尋求替代風險資產（包括美元）的替代品。就目前而言，這意味著要求助於黃金，該黃金始終增長18％。

But that could change, said Omid Malekan, an adjunct professor at Columbia Business School and author of "The Story of the Blockchain: A Beginner's Guide to the Technology That Nobody Understands." Bitcoin could be the new gold soon enough.

哥倫比亞商學院的兼職教授Omid Malekan說，但這可能會改變，也是《區塊鏈故事：沒有人理解的技術的初學者指南》的作者。比特幣可能很快就可以成為新的黃金。

“I think the entire [future] is uncertain and in some ways unknowable, because there are many crosscurrents and both crypto and tariffs are new. Some people argue that crypto is just a risk-on tech asset and would sell off due to tariffs. But bitcoin has found footing in some circles as ‘digital gold’ and the physical variety is soaring on the tariff news. So which will it be?”

“我認為整個[未來]是不確定的，並且在某些方面是不可知的，因為有很多交叉流，加密和關稅都是新的。有人認為加密貨幣只是一種風險的技術資產，並且會因關稅而賣出。但是，由於比特幣在某些圈子中找到了一些圈子，因為“數字金色”和“物理品種”在“數字黃金”上飆升了，因此可以在徵收徵收的情況下，這是a''，所以這是一個徵收的徵收。

In other words, economic uncertainty could lead investors to seek out bitcoin just as they have sought out gold in recent months.

換句話說，經濟不確定性可能會導致投資者像近幾個月來尋找黃金一樣尋找比特幣。

Another note of positivity: the impact of tariffs on crypto could be “priced in” and the worst might be over already, said Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, a leading crypto asset management firm.

陽性的另一個注意事項是：關稅對加密貨幣的影響可能“定價”，最糟糕的情況可能已經結束了，Grayscale的研究負責人Zach Pandl說。

President Trump is due to announce U.S. tariffs on Wednesday, April 2, at 4 p.m. ET—what’s known as “Liberation Day.” According to reports, he’ll lay out “reciprocal tariffs” against 15 countries that have levied tariffs against the U.S., including China, Canada and Mexico.

特朗普總統將於4月2日（星期三）美國東部時間下午4點宣布美國關稅，這就是“解放日”。據報導，他將針對對包括中國，加拿大和墨西哥在內的美國征收關稅的15個國家的“相互關稅”。

Pandl estimates tariffs have so far taken 2% off economic growth this year. But Liberation Day might actually stop the worst of the pain felt in financial markets. “If we see an announcement [on Wednesday] that is tough but phased, and focused on the 15 countries they seem to be targeting, my expectation is that markets will rally on that news,” Pandl told CoinDesk.

PANDL估計，今年的關稅迄今已降低了2％的經濟增長。但是，解放日實際上可能會阻止金融市場上最嚴重的痛苦。潘德爾告訴Coindesk：“如果我們看到（星期三）的公告很艱難，但分階段是分階段，並且專注於他們似乎正在瞄準的15個國家，那麼我的期望是市場將在這一消息上集會。”

“Potentially once we get through this announcement, crypto markets can focus back on the fundamentals which are very positive.”

“一旦我們通過這一公告，加密市場就可以重新集中在非常積極的基本面上。”

Pandl said announcements like Circle’s IPO wouldn’t be happening if institutions didn’t have a high degree of confidence in the digital assets sector and the policies around it.

Pandl說，如果機構對數字資產行業及其周圍的政策沒有高度的信心，那麼Circle的IPO等公告就不會發生。

Moreover, Pandl, a former macro-economist at Goldman Sachs, believes that tariffs will increase the appetite for currencies that aren’t dollars.

此外，高盛（Goldman Sachs）的前宏觀經濟學家潘德（Pandl）認為，關稅將增加對不美元的貨幣的需求。

“I think tariffs will weaken the dominant role of the dollar and create space for competitors including bitcoin. Prices have gone down in the short run. But the first few months of the Trump Administration have raised my conviction in the longer term for bitcoin as a global monetary asset.”

“我認為關稅將削弱美元的主要作用，並為包括比特幣在內的競爭對手創造空間。價格在短期內下跌。但是，特朗普政府的前幾個月，我對比特幣作為全球貨幣資產的長期信念提高了我的信念。”

Pendl still believes that bitcoin will hit new all-time highs this year, despite current pessimism around prices. “I wouldn’t have quit my Wall Street job if I didn’t think bitcoin will be the winner in the long term,” he said.

Pendl仍然認為，儘管目前對價格感到悲觀，但今年比特幣將達到新的歷史最高點。他說：“如果我認為比特幣長期以來不會成為贏家，我就不會退出華爾街的工作。”