加密货币投资者为选举结果做准备，比特币（BTC）市场情绪波动

11 月 4 日星期一，美国现货比特币 ETF 录得惊人的 5.411 亿美元净流出，创下历史上第二大流出日。

Bitcoin traders are exhibiting caution ahead of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, evident in the massive net outflows observed in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs on Monday, November 4. These outflows, amounting to $541.1 million, mark the second-largest outflow day in the history of Bitcoin ETFs.

比特币交易员在 2024 年美国总统大选之前表现出谨慎态度，这一点从 11 月 4 日星期一美国现货比特币 ETF 出现的大规模净流出中可见一斑。这些资金流出金额达 5.411 亿美元，标志着历史上第二大资金流出日。比特币 ETF。

The outflows come as markets brace for heightened volatility tied to the presidential election, with the BTC price hovering around $68,000. Traders are also anticipating how the candidates’ positions on cryptocurrency will impact the digital asset market.

资金流出之际，市场正准备迎接与总统选举相关的波动加剧，比特币价格徘徊在 68,000 美元左右。交易员还预计候选人对加密货币的立场将如何影响数字资产市场。

As per the latest data, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced two consecutive days of net outflows, following a week of inflows that had totaled around $2.2 billion. Several ETFs faced notable outflows on Monday.

根据最新数据，美国现货比特币 ETF 继一周流入总额约为 22 亿美元之后，连续两天出现净流出。周一，多个 ETF 面临显着资金外流。

The ProShares Short Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITI) saw the largest outflows of the day, amounting to $114.8 million. This ETF provides 1x inverse exposure to Bitcoin, catering to traders who anticipate price declines.

ProShares 空头比特币策略 ETF (BITI) 当天流出量最大，达 1.148 亿美元。该 ETF 提供 1 倍的比特币反向敞口，迎合预期价格下跌的交易者。

Meanwhile, the GraniteShares 2x Leveraged Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BTC2L) and the Direxion Daily 2x Long Bitcoin ETN (BULL) also experienced significant outflows, totaling $96.6 million and $80.8 million, respectively. These leveraged ETFs offer 2x exposure to Bitcoin, amplifying both gains and losses.

与此同时，GraniteShares 2x 杠杆比特币策略 ETF (BTC2L) 和 Direxion Daily 2x 多头比特币 ETN (BULL) 也经历了大幅流出，资金总额分别为 9660 万美元和 8080 万美元。这些杠杆 ETF 提供 2 倍的比特币敞口，放大收益和损失。

On the other hand, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) stood as the lone ETF to see inflows, totaling $38.4 million, as traders continue to favor the largest and oldest Bitcoin ETF in the U.S.

另一方面，贝莱德 (BlackRock) 的 iShares 比特币信托 ETF (IBIT) 成为唯一一只出现资金流入的 ETF，资金流入总额为 3840 万美元，交易者继续青睐美国最大、历史最悠久的比特币 ETF

Bitcoin traders appear to be scaling back their exposure in anticipation of potential election-driven volatility. The BTC price has fallen about 4.6% over the past week and 1.7% in the last 24 hours, trading close to $68,000. This market caution is evident in traders’ sensitivity to polling shifts and evolving sentiment surrounding the presidential candidates.

由于预期选举可能导致波动，比特币交易员似乎正在缩减其风险敞口。 BTC 价格在过去一周下跌了约 4.6%，在过去 24 小时内下跌了 1.7%，交易价格接近 68,000 美元。交易员对民调变化和围绕总统候选人不断变化的情绪的敏感度体现了市场的谨慎态度。

Coin Shares head of research James Butter fill noted that early inflows in the week were ignited by optimism over a possible Republican win. However, minor outflows began as the race tightened, underscoring Bitcoin’s susceptibility to political events.

Coin Shares 研究主管詹姆斯·巴特·菲尔 (James Butter fill) 指出，本周早些时候的资金流入是由对共和党可能获胜的乐观情绪引发的。然而，随着竞争的加剧，资金开始小幅流出，凸显了比特币对政治事件的敏感性。

The U.S. election's potential influence on Bitcoin is tied to the candidates' positions on cryptocurrency. Donald Trump, the Republican contender, has a pro-crypto stance, which has boosted confidence among crypto traders. In contrast, Kamala Buttegig is seen as more moderate, with less emphasis on crypto-specific policies.

美国大选对比特币的潜在影响与候选人对加密货币的立场有关。共和党候选人唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)持有支持加密货币的立场，这提振了加密货币交易者的信心。相比之下，卡马拉·布特吉格 (Kamala Buttegig) 被认为更加温和，不太重视特定于加密货币的政策。

Polls are nearly deadlocked, with Buttegig holding a slim 1.2% lead according to FiveThirtyEight data as of November 4. Trump’s odds, however, have fluctuated on crypto betting platforms, rising from a dip at 53.8% back to over 59% in recent days.

民意调查几乎陷入僵局，根据 FiveThirtyEight 截至 11 月 4 日的数据，布特吉格微弱领先 1.2%。然而，特朗普的赔率在加密博彩平台上波动较大，最近几天从 53.8% 的下降回升至 59% 以上。

The speculation around Trump’s potential win has led some analysts to forecast a rally toward $100,000 for Bitcoin if he prevails, owing to expectations of favorable policies.

由于对特朗普可能获胜的猜测，一些分析师预测，如果他获胜，由于对有利政策的预期，比特币价格将上涨至 10 万美元。

The substantial ETF outflows suggest short-term caution among institutional investors, but the long-term outlook remains bullish if market stability resumes post-election. Analysts are eyeing a possible short-term range of $78,000–$84,000 if Bitcoin can rebound from current levels, supported by the 1.618 and 2.618 Fibonacci extensions.

ETF 的大量流出表明机构投资者短期内保持谨慎，但如果选举后市场恢复稳定，长期前景仍然看涨。如果比特币能够在 1.618 和 2.618 斐波那契扩展的支撑下从当前水平反弹，分析师预计短期价格区间可能为 78,000 美元至 84,000 美元。

With Bitcoin historically reacting to U.S. elections with volatility and eventual recovery, the coming days may be pivotal in setting BTC’s trajectory for the rest of the year.

从历史上看，比特币对美国大选的反应是波动和最终复苏，未来几天可能是决定比特币今年剩余时间走势的关键。