加密貨幣投資者為選舉結果做準備，比特幣（BTC）市場情緒波動

11 月 4 日星期一，美國現貨比特幣 ETF 錄得驚人的 5.411 億美元淨流出，創下史上第二大流出日。

Bitcoin traders are exhibiting caution ahead of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, evident in the massive net outflows observed in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs on Monday, November 4. These outflows, amounting to $541.1 million, mark the second-largest outflow day in the history of Bitcoin ETFs.

比特幣交易員在2024 年美國總統大選之前表現出謹慎態度，這一點從11 月4 日星期一美國現貨比特幣ETF 出現的大規模淨流出中可見一斑。著歷史上第二大資金流出日。

The outflows come as markets brace for heightened volatility tied to the presidential election, with the BTC price hovering around $68,000. Traders are also anticipating how the candidates’ positions on cryptocurrency will impact the digital asset market.

資金流出之際，市場正準備迎接與總統大選相關的波動加劇，比特幣價格徘徊在 68,000 美元左右。交易員也預計候選人對加密貨幣的立場將如何影響數位資產市場。

As per the latest data, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced two consecutive days of net outflows, following a week of inflows that had totaled around $2.2 billion. Several ETFs faced notable outflows on Monday.

根據最新數據，美國現貨比特幣 ETF 繼一周流入總額約 22 億美元之後，連續兩天出現淨流出。週一，多個 ETF 面臨顯著資金外流。

The ProShares Short Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITI) saw the largest outflows of the day, amounting to $114.8 million. This ETF provides 1x inverse exposure to Bitcoin, catering to traders who anticipate price declines.

ProShares 空頭比特幣策略 ETF (BITI) 當天流出量最大，達 1.148 億美元。該 ETF 提供 1 倍的比特幣反向敞口，迎合預期價格下跌的交易者。

Meanwhile, the GraniteShares 2x Leveraged Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BTC2L) and the Direxion Daily 2x Long Bitcoin ETN (BULL) also experienced significant outflows, totaling $96.6 million and $80.8 million, respectively. These leveraged ETFs offer 2x exposure to Bitcoin, amplifying both gains and losses.

同時，GraniteShares 2x 槓桿比特幣策略 ETF (BTC2L) 和 Direxion Daily 2x 多頭比特幣 ETN (BULL) 也經歷了大幅流出，資金總額分別為 9,660 萬美元和 8,080 萬美元。這些槓桿 ETF 提供 2 倍的比特幣曝險，放大收益和損失。

On the other hand, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) stood as the lone ETF to see inflows, totaling $38.4 million, as traders continue to favor the largest and oldest Bitcoin ETF in the U.S.

另一方面，貝萊德(BlackRock) 的iShares 比特幣信託ETF (IBIT) 成為唯一一隻出現資金流入的ETF，資金流入總額為3840 萬美元，交易者繼續青睞美國最大、歷史最悠久的比特幣ETF

Bitcoin traders appear to be scaling back their exposure in anticipation of potential election-driven volatility. The BTC price has fallen about 4.6% over the past week and 1.7% in the last 24 hours, trading close to $68,000. This market caution is evident in traders’ sensitivity to polling shifts and evolving sentiment surrounding the presidential candidates.

由於預期選舉可能導致波動，比特幣交易員似乎正在縮減其風險敞口。 BTC 價格在過去一周下跌了約 4.6%，在過去 24 小時內下跌了 1.7%，交易價格接近 68,000 美元。交易員對民調變化和圍繞總統候選人不斷變化的情緒的敏感度體現了市場的謹慎態度。

Coin Shares head of research James Butter fill noted that early inflows in the week were ignited by optimism over a possible Republican win. However, minor outflows began as the race tightened, underscoring Bitcoin’s susceptibility to political events.

Coin Shares 研究主管 James Butter fill 指出，本週早些時候的資金流入是由對共和黨可能獲勝的樂觀情緒引發的。然而，隨著競爭的加劇，資金開始小幅流出，凸顯了比特幣對政治事件的敏感度。

The U.S. election's potential influence on Bitcoin is tied to the candidates' positions on cryptocurrency. Donald Trump, the Republican contender, has a pro-crypto stance, which has boosted confidence among crypto traders. In contrast, Kamala Buttegig is seen as more moderate, with less emphasis on crypto-specific policies.

美國大選對比特幣的潛在影響與候選人對加密貨幣的立場有關。共和黨候選人唐納德·川普(Donald Trump)持有支持加密貨幣的立場，這提振了加密貨幣交易者的信心。相較之下，卡馬拉·布特吉格 (Kamala Buttegig) 被認為更加溫和，不太重視加密貨幣的政策。

Polls are nearly deadlocked, with Buttegig holding a slim 1.2% lead according to FiveThirtyEight data as of November 4. Trump’s odds, however, have fluctuated on crypto betting platforms, rising from a dip at 53.8% back to over 59% in recent days.

民調幾乎陷入僵局，根據FiveThirtyEight 截至11 月4 日的數據，布特吉格微弱領先1.2%。 然而，川普的賠率在加密博彩平台上波動較大，最近幾天從53.8% 的下降回升至59% 以上。

The speculation around Trump’s potential win has led some analysts to forecast a rally toward $100,000 for Bitcoin if he prevails, owing to expectations of favorable policies.

由於對川普可能獲勝的猜測，一些分析師預測，如果他獲勝，由於對有利政策的預期，比特幣價格將上漲至 10 萬美元。

The substantial ETF outflows suggest short-term caution among institutional investors, but the long-term outlook remains bullish if market stability resumes post-election. Analysts are eyeing a possible short-term range of $78,000–$84,000 if Bitcoin can rebound from current levels, supported by the 1.618 and 2.618 Fibonacci extensions.

ETF 的大量流出表明機構投資者短期內保持謹慎，但如果選舉後市場恢復穩定，長期前景仍然看漲。如果比特幣能夠在 1.618 和 2.618 斐波那契擴展的支撐下從當前水平反彈，分析師預計短期價格區間可能為 78,000 美元至 84,000 美元。

With Bitcoin historically reacting to U.S. elections with volatility and eventual recovery, the coming days may be pivotal in setting BTC’s trajectory for the rest of the year.

從歷史上看，比特幣對美國大選的反應是波動和最終復甦，未來幾天可能是決定比特幣今年剩餘時間走勢的關鍵。