比特币（BTC）市场进入看跌阶段

比特币最近的价格行动为分析师和投资者带来了许多不眠之夜。多个指标开始点亮

The recent price action of Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has caused many a sleepless night for analysts and investors.

比特币（Crypto：BTC）最近的价格动作为分析师和投资者带来了许多不眠之夜。

Multiple indicators have started to light up, and not in a good way, suggesting that the flagship cryptocurrency is entering a bear market.

多个指标已经开始亮起，并且不是很好，这表明旗舰加密货币正在进入熊市。

This comes as the world’s largest digital currency continues to face mounting internal and external pressures. Flattening buy-side demand, Fed policies, and risk-off sentiment are just some of the bear signs we’re seeing today.

这是因为世界上最大的数字货币继续面临内部和外部压力。平坦的买方需求，美联储政策和冒险情绪只是我们今天看到的一些熊迹象。

Let’s analyze these and some of the other key signals that have many a Bitcoin bull on his or her heels.

让我们分析这些和其他一些主要信号，这些信号在他或她的脚后跟上都有许多比特币公牛。

Signs Pointing to a Bear Market

指向熊市的标志

The first sign that Bitcoin might be entering a bear market comes from the Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse, which tracks the movement of assets between spot and derivative exchanges. This indicator shows that Bitcoin’s market is in a corrective phase, giving signals that the momentum is slowing. As trading activity cools, the possibility of a bear market increases, notably as large investors, or whales, begin to reduce their exposure by selling off their holdings into the market.

比特币可能进入熊市的第一个迹象来自交换流脉冲，该脉冲跟踪了现货和衍生品交换之间资产的运动。该指标表明，比特币的市场处于纠正阶段，这表明势头正在放缓。随着贸易活动的降温，熊市市场的可能性增加，尤其是大型投资者或鲸鱼开始通过出售其持有的市场来减少其曝光率。

The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio is another key signal. The MVRV ratio has shifted from positive to negative territory, signaling a decline in Bitcoin’s momentum. A negative MVRV ratio has historically suggested that Bitcoin was entering a downtrend. It reflects a growing number of investors who are now at a loss and makes clear that there’s much lower appetite for buying Bitcoin at current levels.

MVRV（市场价值与实现价值）比率是另一个关键信号。 MVRV比率已从正面转向负区域，这表明比特币的势头下降。负MVRV比率从历史上表明，比特币正在进入下降趋势。它反映了越来越多的投资者，这些投资者现在处于亏损状态，并清楚地表明，在当前水平上购买比特币的需求要低得多。

In addition, the Market Cycle indicator is signaling some warnings. By the indicator’s assessment, Bitcoin now occupies the nascent state of a bear market, with the corrective phase in its price following the all-time high in plastering the sun-baked seas of November 2021. Accompanying this recent downturn in Bitcoin’s fortunes by our lights is a major drying-up of liquidity, with the total inflow for the cryptocurrency going from $135 billion in December to a mere $4 billion today.

此外，市场周期指标发出了一些警告。按照指标的评估，比特币现在占据了熊市的新生状态，其价格固定的价格是在2021年11月的阳光灿烂的海洋中的历史最高水平。伴随着比特币的福特在我们的灯光下，我们的灯光下的这一低矮的货物是流动性的主要水平，对于$ 135 $ 135 $ 135 $ 135 $ 135 $ 1355. $ 135亿美元。

Besides these technical signals, major institutional investors and Bitcoin whales have been actively selling into the market. Information from CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin miners have just realized profits that exceed $27 million. This signals that even long-term holders are cashing in at current prices. And what about the market’s biggest players? Traditionally, Bitcoin whales have been seen as the market’s major profit-takers. Profit-taking by them has exceeded $260 million. This is also not a sign of trust in the current price.

除了这些技术信号外，主要的机构投资者和比特币鲸已经积极出售市场。来自加密货币的信息表明，比特币矿工刚刚实现了超过2700万美元的利润。这表明即使是长期持有人也以当前价格兑现。那市场的最大参与者呢？传统上，比特币鲸被视为市场的主要获利者。他们的利润超过了2.6亿美元。这也不是当前价格信任的迹象。

Support Levels to Watch: Will Bitcoin Bounce Back?

支持水平要观看：比特币会反弹吗？

Bearish signs notwithstanding, Bitcoin has some key support levels it has historically respected that might provide a cushion if its price continues to decline. Several indicators say to watch the $66,000 to $69,000 zone as a crucial potential pivot for Bitcoin.

尽管有看跌的标志，但比特币在历史上尊重它的一些关键支持水平，如果其价格继续下降，可能会提供缓冲。几个指标说，这是$ 66,000至69,000美元的区域，这是对比特币的至关重要的潜在枢纽。

IOMAP (in/out of the money around price) from IntoTheBlock shows 750,000 investors bought 313,000 Bitcoin around the $69,000 mark. This is a big base of support below $69,000. This is confirmed from another angle by Glassnode's UTXO Realized Price Distribution, which shows very strong support at approximately $69,354. Both these on-chain indicators are signalling a lot of buying interest at these levels.

IOMAP（围绕价格围绕价格的钱）显示，有750,000名投资者在69,000美元左右购买了313,000比特币。这是低于69,000美元的支持基础。 GlassNode的UTXO实现了价格分布，从另一个角度证实了这一点，该价格非常强烈，约为69,354美元。这两种链上指标都在这些水平上表示很多购买兴趣。

Has #Bitcoin $BTC entered a bear market?

#bitcoin $ btc进入了熊市吗？

Let's dive in! 🧵👇

让我们潜入！ 🧵👇

— Ali (@ali_charts) March 18, 2025

- Ali（@ali_charts）2025年3月18日

Along with these on-chain signs, the Mayer Multiple, which gauges the present price of Bitcoin against its historical trend, indicates that the $66,000 area is a significant support level. The price of Bitcoin fell beneath its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) not long ago, and when that happens, it can mean the price is about to weaken. But if the price can recover the $66,000 to $69,000 zone, it can be seen as setting the price up for a nice rebound.

除了这些链上的标志外，Mayer倍数将比特币的当前价格违背其历史趋势，这表明66,000美元的面积是一个显着的支持水平。不久前，比特币的价格下降到其200天简单的移动平均水平（SMA）之下，当这种情况发生时，这可能意味着价格将会削弱。但是，如果价格可以收回66,000美元至69,000美元的区域，则可以将其视为为一个不错的篮板设定了价格。

What’s Next for Bitcoin? The $46,000 Line in the Sand

比特币的下一步是什么？ $ 46,000的沙子

Examining past downturns can reveal how Bitcoin might behave in a subsequent downturn. Since 2011, Bitcoin has had five significant downturns, where it has retraced (or fallen back) to below a key support level. Each time, after falling through the 50-week SMA, it has gone on to fall back to the 200-week SMA. Currently, the 200-week SMA is just about at $46,000, which many traders might consider a very real “next stop” for Bitcoin’s price if it drops much further. Note that should Bitcoin actually reach this 200-week SMA in

检查过去的衰退可以揭示比特币在随后的衰退中的表现。自2011年以来，比特币已经有五个重大的衰退，它已回顾（或倒退）至关键支撑级以下。每次跌落在50周的SMA之后，它都会恢复到200周的SMA。目前，200周的SMA差不多46,000美元，如果它进一步下降，许多交易者可能会认为比特币的价格非常真实。请注意，应该实际上到达比特币的200周SMA