比特幣（BTC）市場進入看跌階段

比特幣最近的價格行動為分析師和投資者帶來了許多不眠之夜。多個指標開始點亮

The recent price action of Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has caused many a sleepless night for analysts and investors.

比特幣（Crypto：BTC）最近的價格動作為分析師和投資者帶來了許多不眠之夜。

Multiple indicators have started to light up, and not in a good way, suggesting that the flagship cryptocurrency is entering a bear market.

多個指標已經開始亮起，並且不是很好，這表明旗艦加密貨幣正在進入熊市。

This comes as the world’s largest digital currency continues to face mounting internal and external pressures. Flattening buy-side demand, Fed policies, and risk-off sentiment are just some of the bear signs we’re seeing today.

這是因為世界上最大的數字貨幣繼續面臨內部和外部壓力。平坦的買方需求，美聯儲政策和冒險情緒只是我們今天看到的一些熊跡象。

Let’s analyze these and some of the other key signals that have many a Bitcoin bull on his or her heels.

讓我們分析這些和其他一些主要信號，這些信號在他或她的腳後跟上都有許多比特幣公牛。

Signs Pointing to a Bear Market

指向熊市的標誌

The first sign that Bitcoin might be entering a bear market comes from the Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse, which tracks the movement of assets between spot and derivative exchanges. This indicator shows that Bitcoin’s market is in a corrective phase, giving signals that the momentum is slowing. As trading activity cools, the possibility of a bear market increases, notably as large investors, or whales, begin to reduce their exposure by selling off their holdings into the market.

比特幣可能進入熊市的第一個跡象來自交換流脈衝，該脈衝跟踪了現貨和衍生品交換之間資產的運動。該指標表明，比特幣的市場處於糾正階段，這表明勢頭正在放緩。隨著貿易活動的降溫，熊市市場的可能性增加，尤其是大型投資者或鯨魚開始通過出售其持有的市場來減少其曝光率。

The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio is another key signal. The MVRV ratio has shifted from positive to negative territory, signaling a decline in Bitcoin’s momentum. A negative MVRV ratio has historically suggested that Bitcoin was entering a downtrend. It reflects a growing number of investors who are now at a loss and makes clear that there’s much lower appetite for buying Bitcoin at current levels.

MVRV（市場價值與實現價值）比率是另一個關鍵信號。 MVRV比率已從正面轉向負區域，這表明比特幣的勢頭下降。負MVRV比率從歷史上表明，比特幣正在進入下降趨勢。它反映了越來越多的投資者，這些投資者現在處於虧損狀態，並清楚地表明，在當前水平上購買比特幣的需求要低得多。

In addition, the Market Cycle indicator is signaling some warnings. By the indicator’s assessment, Bitcoin now occupies the nascent state of a bear market, with the corrective phase in its price following the all-time high in plastering the sun-baked seas of November 2021. Accompanying this recent downturn in Bitcoin’s fortunes by our lights is a major drying-up of liquidity, with the total inflow for the cryptocurrency going from $135 billion in December to a mere $4 billion today.

此外，市場週期指標發出了一些警告。按照指標的評估，比特幣現在佔據了熊市的新生狀態，其價格固定的價格是在2021年11月的陽光燦爛的海洋中的歷史最高水平。伴隨著比特幣的福特在我們的燈光下，我們的燈光下的這一低矮的貨物是流動性的主要水平，對於$ 135 $ 135 $ 135 $ 135 $ 135 $ 1355. $ 135億美元。

Besides these technical signals, major institutional investors and Bitcoin whales have been actively selling into the market. Information from CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin miners have just realized profits that exceed $27 million. This signals that even long-term holders are cashing in at current prices. And what about the market’s biggest players? Traditionally, Bitcoin whales have been seen as the market’s major profit-takers. Profit-taking by them has exceeded $260 million. This is also not a sign of trust in the current price.

除了這些技術信號外，主要的機構投資者和比特幣鯨已經積極出售市場。來自加密貨幣的信息表明，比特幣礦工剛剛實現了超過2700萬美元的利潤。這表明即使是長期持有人也以當前價格兌現。那市場的最大參與者呢？傳統上，比特幣鯨被視為市場的主要獲利者。他們的利潤超過了2.6億美元。這也不是當前價格信任的跡象。

Support Levels to Watch: Will Bitcoin Bounce Back?

支持水平要觀看：比特幣會反彈嗎？

Bearish signs notwithstanding, Bitcoin has some key support levels it has historically respected that might provide a cushion if its price continues to decline. Several indicators say to watch the $66,000 to $69,000 zone as a crucial potential pivot for Bitcoin.

儘管有看跌的標誌，但比特幣在歷史上尊重它的一些關鍵支持水平，如果其價格繼續下降，可能會提供緩衝。幾個指標說，這是$ 66,000至69,000美元的區域，這是對比特幣的至關重要的潛在樞紐。

IOMAP (in/out of the money around price) from IntoTheBlock shows 750,000 investors bought 313,000 Bitcoin around the $69,000 mark. This is a big base of support below $69,000. This is confirmed from another angle by Glassnode's UTXO Realized Price Distribution, which shows very strong support at approximately $69,354. Both these on-chain indicators are signalling a lot of buying interest at these levels.

IOMAP（圍繞價格圍繞價格的錢）顯示，有750,000名投資者在69,000美元左右購買了313,000比特幣。這是低於69,000美元的支持基礎。 GlassNode的UTXO實現了價格分佈，從另一個角度證實了這一點，該價格非常強烈，約為69,354美元。這兩種鏈上指標都在這些水平上表示很多購買興趣。

Has #Bitcoin $BTC entered a bear market?

#bitcoin $ btc進入了熊市嗎？

Let's dive in! 🧵👇

讓我們潛入！ 🧵👇

— Ali (@ali_charts) March 18, 2025

- Ali（@ali_charts）2025年3月18日

Along with these on-chain signs, the Mayer Multiple, which gauges the present price of Bitcoin against its historical trend, indicates that the $66,000 area is a significant support level. The price of Bitcoin fell beneath its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) not long ago, and when that happens, it can mean the price is about to weaken. But if the price can recover the $66,000 to $69,000 zone, it can be seen as setting the price up for a nice rebound.

除了這些鏈上的標誌外，Mayer倍數將比特幣的當前價格違背其歷史趨勢，這表明66,000美元的面積是一個顯著的支持水平。不久前，比特幣的價格下降到其200天簡單的移動平均水平（SMA）之下，當這種情況發生時，這可能意味著價格將會削弱。但是，如果價格可以收回66,000美元至69,000美元的區域，則可以將其視為為一個不錯的籃板設定了價格。

What’s Next for Bitcoin? The $46,000 Line in the Sand

比特幣的下一步是什麼？ $ 46,000的沙子

Examining past downturns can reveal how Bitcoin might behave in a subsequent downturn. Since 2011, Bitcoin has had five significant downturns, where it has retraced (or fallen back) to below a key support level. Each time, after falling through the 50-week SMA, it has gone on to fall back to the 200-week SMA. Currently, the 200-week SMA is just about at $46,000, which many traders might consider a very real “next stop” for Bitcoin’s price if it drops much further. Note that should Bitcoin actually reach this 200-week SMA in

檢查過去的衰退可以揭示比特幣在隨後的衰退中的表現。自2011年以來，比特幣已經有五個重大的衰退，它已回顧（或倒退）至關鍵支撐級以下。每次跌落在50週的SMA之後，它都會恢復到200週的SMA。目前，200週的SMA差不多46,000美元，如果它進一步下降，許多交易者可能會認為比特幣的價格非常真實。請注意，應該實際上到達比特幣的200週SMA