比特币（BTC）市场周期：统计动量视角

胡锦瑟财经

Bitcoin's price typically shows evidence of statistical momentum, where price increases follow upward trends and price decreases follow downward trends. Over longer time frames, this creates price cycles that exhibit phenomena around historical upward trends (Figure 1).

比特币的价格通常显示出统计动量的证据，其中价格上涨遵循上升趋势，价格下跌遵循下降趋势。在较长的时间范围内，这会产生围绕历史上升趋势呈现现象的价格周期（图 1）。

Each past price cycle has had unique drivers, and future price returns have no reason to fully reflect past experiences. Additionally, as Bitcoin matures and is adopted by a broader base of traditional investors, and as the impact of the four-year halving events on supply diminishes, the cyclical nature of Bitcoin's price may reshape or completely disappear. Nevertheless, studying past cycles may provide investors with some guidance regarding Bitcoin's typical statistical behavior, which can inform risk management decisions.

过去的每个价格周期都有独特的驱动因素，未来的价格回报没有理由完全反映过去的经验。此外，随着比特币的成熟并被更广泛的传统投资者采用，以及四年减半事件对供应的影响减弱，比特币价格的周期性可能会重塑或完全消失。尽管如此，研究过去的周期可能会为投资者提供有关比特币典型统计行为的一些指导，从而为风险管理决策提供信息。

Figure 2 shows Bitcoin's price performance during each previous cycle's appreciation phase. The price at the cycle low (marking the beginning of the appreciation phase) is indexed to 100 and tracked to its peak (marking the end of the appreciation phase). Figure 3 presents the same information in tabular form.

图 2 显示了比特币在之前每个周期升值阶段的价格表现。周期低点（标志着升值阶段的开始）的价格指数为100，并追踪到其峰值（标志着升值阶段的结束）。图 3 以表格形式显示了相同的信息。

The first price cycle in Bitcoin's history was relatively short and steep: the first cycle lasted less than a year, while the second cycle lasted about two years. In both cases, the price rose more than 500 times from the previous cycle low. The subsequent two cycles lasted less than three years each. During the cycle from January 2015 to December 2017, Bitcoin's price increased over 100 times, while in the cycle from December 2018 to November 2021, Bitcoin's price rose about 20 times.

比特币历史上的第一个价格周期相对较短且陡峭：第一个周期持续了不到一年，而第二个周期持续了大约两年。在这两种情况下，价格均比上一个周期低点上涨了 500 多倍。随后的两个周期各持续不到三年。在2015年1月至2017年12月的周期中，比特币的价格上涨了100多倍，而在2018年12月至2021年11月的周期中，比特币的价格上涨了约20倍。

After peaking in November 2021, Bitcoin's price fell to about $16,000 in November 2022, marking a cyclical low. The current price increase has been ongoing since then, lasting over two years. As shown in Figure 2, the latest price increase is relatively close to the previous two Bitcoin cycles, both of which lasted about a year before reaching their peaks. In terms of magnitude, the current cycle's approximate 6-fold return is significant but far below the returns achieved in the previous four cycles. Overall, while we cannot be certain that future price returns will resemble past cycles, Bitcoin's history tells us that the latest bull market could continue in terms of both duration and magnitude.

比特币价格在 2021 年 11 月达到顶峰后，于 2022 年 11 月跌至 16,000 美元左右，创下周期性低点。从那时起，当前的价格上涨一直持续，持续了两年多。如图2所示，最新的价格上涨与前两个比特币周期相对接近，这两个周期都持续了大约一年才达到顶峰。从幅度上看，当前周期约6倍的回报率相当可观，但远低于前四个周期所实现的回报率。总体而言，虽然我们不能确定未来的价格回报是否会与过去的周期相似，但比特币的历史告诉我们，最新的牛市在持续时间和规模上都可能持续下去。

Figure 3: Four different cycles in Bitcoin's price history

图 3：比特币价格历史的四个不同周期

In addition to measuring past cycles' price performance, investors can apply various blockchain-based indicators to assess the maturity of the Bitcoin bull market. For example, common indicators measure the degree of appreciation of Bitcoin relative to the buyer's cost basis, the extent of new capital inflows into Bitcoin, and the price relative to Bitcoin miners' income levels.

除了衡量过去周期的价格表现外，投资者还可以应用各种基于区块链的指标来评估比特币牛市的成熟度。例如，常见指标衡量比特币相对于购买者成本基础的升值程度、新资本流入比特币的程度以及相对于比特币矿工收入水平的价格。

One particularly popular indicator calculates the ratio of Bitcoin's market value (MV) (measured at its secondary market price per token) to its realized value (RV) (measured at the price of its last on-chain transaction per token). This indicator, known as the MVRV ratio, can be viewed as the extent to which Bitcoin's market value exceeds the total cost basis of the market. In the past four cycles, the MVRV ratio reached values of at least 4 (Figure 4). Currently, the MVRV ratio is 2.6, indicating that the latest cycle may still continue. However, the MVRV ratio peaks at lower levels in each cycle, so it may never reach 4 before the price peaks.

一个特别流行的指标计算比特币的市场价值（MV）（以每个代币的二级市场价格衡量）与其实现价值（RV）（以每个代币最后一次链上交易的价格衡量）的比率。该指标被称为 MVRV 比率，可以被视为比特币市场价值超过市场总成本基础的程度。在过去的四个周期中，MVRV 比率至少达到 4 的值（图 4）。目前MVRV比率为2.6，表明最新周期可能仍会持续。然而，MVRV 比率在每个周期中都在较低水平达到峰值，因此在价格达到峰值之前可能永远不会达到 4。

Other on-chain indicators measure the extent of new capital entering the Bitcoin ecosystem—experienced cryptocurrency investors often refer to this framework as HODL Waves. Prices may appreciate as new capital purchases Bitcoin from long-term holders at slightly higher prices. There are various specific measures to choose from, but Grayscale Research prefers to use the number of tokens transferred on-chain last year relative to Bitcoin's total freely circulating supply (Figure 5). In the past four cycles, this indicator reached at least 60%—meaning that during the appreciation phase, at least 60% of the freely circulating supply was traded on-chain within a year. Currently, this figure is about 54%, suggesting that we may see more tokens change hands on-chain before the price peaks.

其他链上指标衡量新资本进入比特币生态系统的程度——经验丰富的加密货币投资者通常将此框架称为 HODL Waves。随着新资本以略高的价格从长期持有者手中购买比特币，价格可能会上涨。有多种具体衡量标准可供选择，但 Grayscale Research 更喜欢使用去年链上转移的代币数量相对于比特币自由流通总量的比例（图 5）。在过去的四个周期中，这一指标至少达到了 60%——这意味着在升值阶段，一年内至少有 60% 的自由流通供应量在链上交易。目前，这一数字约为 54%，这表明我们可能会看到更多代币在价格见顶之前在链上易手。

Other cyclical indicators focus on Bitcoin miners, the professional service providers securing the Bitcoin network. For example, a common metric calculates the ratio of miners' market cap (MC) (the dollar value of all Bitcoin held by miners) to the so-called "thermal cap" (TC) (the cumulative value of Bitcoin issued to miners through block rewards and transaction fees). The intuition is that when the value of miners' assets reaches a certain threshold, they may begin to take profits. Historically, when the MCTC ratio exceeds 10, the price subsequently peaks within that cycle (Figure 6). Currently, the MCTC ratio is about 6, indicating that we are still in the middle of the current cycle

其他周期性指标关注比特币矿工，即保护比特币网络安全的专业服务提供商。例如，一个通用指标计算矿工市值（MC）（矿工持有的所有比特币的美元价值）与所谓的“热上限”（TC）（通过发行给矿工的比特币的累计价值）的比率。区块奖励和交易费用）。直觉是，当矿工资产价值达到一定阈值时，他们可能会开始获利了结。从历史上看，当 MCTC 比率超过 10 时，价格随后在该周期内达到峰值（图 6）。目前MCTC比率约为6，表明我们仍处于当前周期的中期