随着网络活动降至一年低点，比特币（BTC）面临重大转变

比特币（BTC）目前发现自己处于不稳定的位置，因为网络活动降至一年低点。贸易价格接近96,500美元，估计的公允价值估计在48,000至95,000美元之间，对高估的担忧正在持续。

Bitcoin (BTC) price has been on a wild ride lately, and it’s currently trading in a zone that’s overvalued based on its dwindling network activity, a key metric that’s now at a one-year low. But despite this, BTC has managed to buck the broader market trend and post a 9.4% gain in January, a period when most cryptocurrencies saw declines of 25.7%. So, what gives?

比特币（BTC）的价格最近一直处于野外的速度，目前正在基于其减少的网络活动而被高估的区域进行交易，这是一个关键指标，该指标现在为一年低。但是，尽管如此，BTC还是设法阻止了更广泛的市场趋势，并在一月份的增长9.4％，这一时期大多数加密货币下降了25.7％。那么，什么给呢？

Well, let’s dive into the details and try to understand the factors behind this surprising performance.

好吧，让我们研究细节，并尝试了解这种令人惊讶的表现背后的因素。

Bitcoin’s Network Activity Index, a measure of transactions on the network, has seen a steep decline of 15% since peaking in November 2024. Currently, daily transactions on the Bitcoin network are around 346,000, which is a significant drop compared to the record high of 734,000 in September. This represents a decline of 53% from the peak levels.

比特币的网络活动指数是该网络交易的衡量标准，自2024年11月达到顶峰以来，比特币的交易量急剧下降了15％。目前，比特币网络上的每日交易约为346,000，与创纪录的高度相比，这是显着的下降。 9月734,000。这比峰值水平下降了53％。

One of the key factors behind this decline is the reduced use of the Runes protocol, which was previously a major hub for token minting on the Bitcoin blockchain. As a result, the daily usage of OP_RETURN codes, which are crucial for storing token data, has also nose-dived from an impressive 802,000 in April 2024 to a mere 10,000 in early January.

这种下降背后的关键因素之一是减少了符文协议的使用，该协议以前是对比特币区块链上的造币的主要枢纽。结果，对于存储令牌数据至关重要的OP_Return代码的每日使用也从2024年4月的802,000到1月初的10,000人的鼻子潜行。

This drastic drop in network activity is also evident in the total unconfirmed transactions in Bitcoin’s mempool, which have seen a 99% decline, going from 287,000 in December 2024 to just 3,000 now. This level of pending transactions has not been seen since March 2022.

在比特币的Mempool的总未经证实的交易中，网络活动的大幅度下降也显而易见，该交易的下降了99％，从2024年12月的287,000到现在只有3,000。自2022年3月以来，一直没有看到这种待处理的交易。

Despite these troubling figures, Bitcoin has shown surprising resilience, with a 9.4% price increase in January 2024, while the broader market faced a decline of 25.7%. This indicates a complex relationship between market sentiment and Bitcoin’s intrinsic value.

尽管有这些令人不安的数据，但比特币表现出令人惊讶的弹性，2024年1月的价格上涨了9.4％，而更广泛的市场面临25.7％的下降。这表明市场情绪与比特币的内在价值之间存在复杂的关系。

As we’ve seen, Bitcoin’s network activity is a key factor in determining its fair value, and the trend towards reduced activity raises questions about the long-term sustainability of Bitcoin’s current structure and economic model.

如我们所见，比特币的网络活动是确定其公允价值的关键因素，而降低活动的趋势引发了有关比特币当前结构和经济模型的长期可持续性的问题。

However, if there are any new innovations in the crypto space, we might see a potential rebound in activity if they re-engage users and promote transaction growth.

但是，如果加密货币领域有任何新的创新，如果他们重新吸引用户并促进交易增长，我们可能会看到活动的潜在反弹。

1. What could be the implications of the declining network activity for Bitcoin’s price?

1。网络活动对比特币价格下降的影响是什么？

As fewer people are using Bitcoin for transactions, and given that trading significantly exceeds its fair value, we may see volatility and possible correction in prices if activity doesn’t rebound.

由于更少的人使用比特币进行交易，并且鉴于交易大大超过其公允价值，因此，如果活动不反弹，我们可能会看到价格的波动性和可能的​​纠正。

2. What innovations might help revive Bitcoin’s network activity?

2.哪些创新可能有助于复兴比特币的网络活动？

The introduction of improved transaction protocols, enhanced scalability solutions like the Lightning Network, or new applications that increase user engagement could potentially rekindle network activity.

引入改进的交易协议，增强的可伸缩性解决方案（例如闪电网络）或增加用户参与度的新应用程序可能会重新点燃网络活动。

3. Is now a good time to invest in Bitcoin given the current market conditions?

3。现在，鉴于当前的市场状况，现在是投资比特币的好时机吗？

This largely depends on individual risk tolerance and investment strategy, but the substantial decline in activity might suggest caution. Investors should conduct thorough research and consider both short-term volatility and long-term potential.

这在很大程度上取决于个人风险承受能力和投资策略，但活动的大幅下降可能表明谨慎。投资者应进行彻底的研究，并考虑短期波动和长期潜力。

Although Bitcoin continues to be a major player in the cryptocurrency market, its declining network usage signals potential challenges ahead. Investors are urged to remain vigilant and consider the shifting ecosystem as they make decisions.

尽管比特币仍然是加密货币市场中的主要参与者，但其网络使用率下降的标志表示未来的潜在挑战。敦促投资者保持警惕，并在决定时考虑变化的生态系统。

For more detailed information on Bitcoin and cryptocurrency trends, check out CoinDesk.

有关比特币和加密货币趋势的更多详细信息，请查看Coindesk。