隨著網絡活動降至一年低點，比特幣（BTC）面臨重大轉變

比特幣（BTC）目前發現自己處於不穩定的位置，因為網絡活動降至一年低點。貿易價格接近96,500美元，估計的公允價值估計在48,000至95,000美元之間，對高估的擔憂正在持續。

Bitcoin (BTC) price has been on a wild ride lately, and it’s currently trading in a zone that’s overvalued based on its dwindling network activity, a key metric that’s now at a one-year low. But despite this, BTC has managed to buck the broader market trend and post a 9.4% gain in January, a period when most cryptocurrencies saw declines of 25.7%. So, what gives?

比特幣（BTC）的價格最近一直處於野外的速度，目前正在基於其減少的網絡活動而被高估的區域進行交易，這是一個關鍵指標，該指標現在為一年低。但是，儘管如此，BTC還是設法阻止了更廣泛的市場趨勢，並在一月份的增長9.4％，這一時期大多數加密貨幣下降了25.7％。那麼，什麼給呢？

Well, let’s dive into the details and try to understand the factors behind this surprising performance.

好吧，讓我們研究細節，並嘗試了解這種令人驚訝的表現背後的因素。

Bitcoin’s Network Activity Index, a measure of transactions on the network, has seen a steep decline of 15% since peaking in November 2024. Currently, daily transactions on the Bitcoin network are around 346,000, which is a significant drop compared to the record high of 734,000 in September. This represents a decline of 53% from the peak levels.

比特幣的網絡活動指數是該網絡交易的衡量標準，自2024年11月達到頂峰以來，比特幣的交易量急劇下降了15％。目前，比特幣網絡上的每日交易約為346,000，與創紀錄的高度相比，這是顯著的下降。 9月734,000。這比峰值水平下降了53％。

One of the key factors behind this decline is the reduced use of the Runes protocol, which was previously a major hub for token minting on the Bitcoin blockchain. As a result, the daily usage of OP_RETURN codes, which are crucial for storing token data, has also nose-dived from an impressive 802,000 in April 2024 to a mere 10,000 in early January.

這種下降背後的關鍵因素之一是減少了符文協議的使用，該協議以前是對比特幣區塊鏈上的造幣的主要樞紐。結果，對於存儲令牌數據至關重要的OP_Return代碼的每日使用也從2024年4月的802,000到1月初的10,000人的鼻子潛行。

This drastic drop in network activity is also evident in the total unconfirmed transactions in Bitcoin’s mempool, which have seen a 99% decline, going from 287,000 in December 2024 to just 3,000 now. This level of pending transactions has not been seen since March 2022.

在比特幣的Mempool的總未經證實的交易中，網絡活動的大幅度下降也顯而易見，該交易的下降了99％，從2024年12月的287,000到現在只有3,000。自2022年3月以來，一直沒有看到這種待處理的交易。

Despite these troubling figures, Bitcoin has shown surprising resilience, with a 9.4% price increase in January 2024, while the broader market faced a decline of 25.7%. This indicates a complex relationship between market sentiment and Bitcoin’s intrinsic value.

儘管有這些令人不安的數據，但比特幣表現出令人驚訝的彈性，2024年1月的價格上漲了9.4％，而更廣泛的市場面臨25.7％的下降。這表明市場情緒與比特幣的內在價值之間存在復雜的關係。

As we’ve seen, Bitcoin’s network activity is a key factor in determining its fair value, and the trend towards reduced activity raises questions about the long-term sustainability of Bitcoin’s current structure and economic model.

如我們所見，比特幣的網絡活動是確定其公允價值的關鍵因素，而降低活動的趨勢引發了有關比特幣當前結構和經濟模型的長期可持續性的問題。

However, if there are any new innovations in the crypto space, we might see a potential rebound in activity if they re-engage users and promote transaction growth.

但是，如果加密貨幣領域有任何新的創新，如果他們重新吸引用戶並促進交易增長，我們可能會看到活動的潛在反彈。

1. What could be the implications of the declining network activity for Bitcoin’s price?

1。網絡活動對比特幣價格下降的影響是什麼？

As fewer people are using Bitcoin for transactions, and given that trading significantly exceeds its fair value, we may see volatility and possible correction in prices if activity doesn’t rebound.

由於更少的人使用比特幣進行交易，並且鑑於交易大大超過其公允價值，因此，如果活動不反彈，我們可能會看到價格的波動性和可能的​​糾正。

2. What innovations might help revive Bitcoin’s network activity?

2.哪些創新可能有助於復興比特幣的網絡活動？

The introduction of improved transaction protocols, enhanced scalability solutions like the Lightning Network, or new applications that increase user engagement could potentially rekindle network activity.

引入改進的交易協議，增強的可伸縮性解決方案（例如閃電網絡）或增加用戶參與度的新應用程序可能會重新點燃網絡活動。

3. Is now a good time to invest in Bitcoin given the current market conditions?

3。現在，鑑於當前的市場狀況，現在是投資比特幣的好時機嗎？

This largely depends on individual risk tolerance and investment strategy, but the substantial decline in activity might suggest caution. Investors should conduct thorough research and consider both short-term volatility and long-term potential.

這在很大程度上取決於個人風險承受能力和投資策略，但活動的大幅下降可能表明謹慎。投資者應進行徹底的研究，並考慮短期波動和長期潛力。

Although Bitcoin continues to be a major player in the cryptocurrency market, its declining network usage signals potential challenges ahead. Investors are urged to remain vigilant and consider the shifting ecosystem as they make decisions.

儘管比特幣仍然是加密貨幣市場中的主要參與者，但其網絡使用率下降的標誌表示未來的潛在挑戰。敦促投資者保持警惕，並在決定時考慮變化的生態系統。

For more detailed information on Bitcoin and cryptocurrency trends, check out CoinDesk.

有關比特幣和加密貨幣趨勢的更多詳細信息，請查看Coindesk。