QCP Capital 警告称，比特币 (BTC) 创下新高，但市场保持平衡

QCP Capital 报告称，比特币 (BTC) 触及新高，但指出整体市场波动仍然不大。

Bitcoin (BTC) hit fresh highs on Monday, but overall market volatility has remained subdued, largely due to heavy profit-taking on long calls, a type of call option that bets on BTC price increases.

比特币（BTC）周一创下新高，但整体市场波动仍然较小，这主要是由于多头看涨期权（一种押注 BTC 价格上涨的看涨期权）的大量获利了结。

The presence of long calls allowed traders to lock in profits strategically as the asset climbed, reducing upward volatility and indicating that the market was prepared for the move.

多头看涨期权的存在使交易者能够在资产上涨时战略性地锁定利润，从而减少向上波动性，并表明市场已为此做好准备。

As BTC broke through key resistance levels and exited a prolonged trading range, market sentiment appeared “euphoric,” but a closer examination revealed a steep rise in perpetual funding rates and basis yields.

随着比特币突破关键阻力位并退出长期交易区间，市场情绪显得“欣喜若狂”，但更仔细的检查显示，永续融资利率和基差收益率急剧上升。

Perpetual (perp) funding is the cost traders pay to hold long or short positions on futures contracts, and high perp funding can indicate an overheated market.

永续资金是交易者为持有期货合约多头或空头头寸而支付的成本，高永续资金可能表明市场过热。

Currently, basis yields have reached a seven-month high, which, according to QCP researchers, indicates potential over-leveraging.

目前，基差收益率已达到七个月高位，QCP 研究人员表示，这表明潜在的过度杠杆化。

Typically, such surges in basis yields are short-lived, often followed by corrective movements due to “leveraged washouts.”

通常情况下，基差收益率的这种飙升是短暂的，随后往往会因“杠杆冲刷”而出现修正走势。

These washouts occur when traders holding high-leverage positions are forced to sell or cover their positions, creating downward pressure on prices.

当持有高杠杆头寸的交易者被迫出售或补仓时，就会发生这些冲刷，从而对价格造成下行压力。

While QCP’s outlook remains optimistic on bitcoin structurally, the market could see sharp declines if leveraged positions start to unwind.

尽管 QCP 对比特币的结构性前景仍然乐观，但如果杠杆头寸开始平仓，市场可能会大幅下跌。

Economic Events This Week Could Impact Crypto Market Outlook

本周的经济事件可能会影响加密货币市场前景

QCP market strategists are also keeping a close eye on several economic developments this week that it says could affect the crypto market outlook.

QCP 市场策略师也在密切关注本周的几项经济发展，据称这些发展可能会影响加密货币市场前景。

Crucial events include the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday, the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data on Thursday, and a speech from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday.

重要事件包括周三的美国消费者价格指数（CPI）数据、周四的美国生产者价格指数（PPI）数据以及周五美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的讲话。

These announcements, QCP adds, will likely shape traders’ views on the Federal Reserve’s anticipated 25-basis-point rate cut in December.

QCP 补充道，这些公告可能会影响交易者对美联储 12 月份预期降息 25 个基点的看法。

According to QCP, if these events indicate a less favorable economic outlook, they could dampen market enthusiasm, leading to lower trading volumes and price corrections.

QCP 表示，如果这些事件表明经济前景不太乐观，可能会抑制市场热情，导致交易量下降和价格调整。

However, if the data aligns with market expectations for a December rate cut, BTC may continue to receive support from traders speculating on a positive economic trajectory.

然而，如果该数据符合市场对 12 月降息的预期，那么 BTC 可能会继续获得猜测经济向好轨迹的交易员的支持。

QCP anticipates a consolidation phase for BTC in the near term, with the price “chopping around” current levels.

QCP 预计 BTC 在短期内将进入盘整阶段，价格将“围绕”当前水平“波动”。

This suggests the asset could remain range-bound until new information from macroeconomic events provides additional market direction.

这表明该资产可能会保持区间波动，直到宏观经济事件的新信息提供额外的市场方向。

Despite the surge in BTC prices, QCP expects volatility levels to moderate, especially if the week’s economic announcements meet expectations.

尽管比特币价格飙升，但 QCP 预计波动水平将会放缓，特别是如果本周的经济公告符合预期的话。

As the cryptocurrency market awaits these updates, QCP highlights the need for a balanced approach during this period. While elevated perp funding and basis yields could indicate a temporary over-exuberance, QCP Capital’s analysis maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook, keeping a watchful eye on key economic indicators.

在加密货币市场等待这些更新之际，QCP 强调在此期间需要采取平衡的方法。虽然永久融资和基差收益率的上升可能表明暂时的过度繁荣，但 QCP Capital 的分析仍保持谨慎乐观的前景，并密切关注关键经济指标。