QCP Capital 警告稱，比特幣 (BTC) 創下新高，但市場保持平衡

QCP Capital 報告稱，比特幣 (BTC) 觸及新高，但指出整體市場波動仍然不大。

Bitcoin (BTC) hit fresh highs on Monday, but overall market volatility has remained subdued, largely due to heavy profit-taking on long calls, a type of call option that bets on BTC price increases.

比特幣（BTC）週一創下新高，但整體市場波動仍然較小，這主要是由於多頭看漲期權（一種押注 BTC 價格上漲的看漲期權）的大量獲利了結。

The presence of long calls allowed traders to lock in profits strategically as the asset climbed, reducing upward volatility and indicating that the market was prepared for the move.

多頭看漲期權的存在使交易者能夠在資產上漲時策略性地鎖定利潤，從而減少向上波動並表明市場已為此做好準備。

As BTC broke through key resistance levels and exited a prolonged trading range, market sentiment appeared “euphoric,” but a closer examination revealed a steep rise in perpetual funding rates and basis yields.

隨著比特幣突破關鍵阻力位並退出長期交易區間，市場情緒顯得“欣喜若狂”，但更仔細的檢查顯示，永續融資利率和基差收益率急劇上升。

Perpetual (perp) funding is the cost traders pay to hold long or short positions on futures contracts, and high perp funding can indicate an overheated market.

永續資金是交易者為持有期貨合約多頭或空頭部位而支付的成本，高永續資金可能表示市場過熱。

Currently, basis yields have reached a seven-month high, which, according to QCP researchers, indicates potential over-leveraging.

目前，基差收益率已達到七個月高位，QCP 研究人員表示，這表明潛在的過度槓桿化。

Typically, such surges in basis yields are short-lived, often followed by corrective movements due to “leveraged washouts.”

通常情況下，基差殖利率的這種飆升是短暫的，隨後往往會因「槓桿沖刷」而出現修正走勢。

These washouts occur when traders holding high-leverage positions are forced to sell or cover their positions, creating downward pressure on prices.

當持有高槓桿部位的交易者被迫出售或補倉時，就會發生這些沖刷，對價格造成下行壓力。

While QCP’s outlook remains optimistic on bitcoin structurally, the market could see sharp declines if leveraged positions start to unwind.

儘管 QCP 對比特幣的結構性前景仍然樂觀，但如果槓桿部位開始平倉，市場可能會大幅下跌。

Economic Events This Week Could Impact Crypto Market Outlook

本週的經濟事件可能會影響加密貨幣市場前景

QCP market strategists are also keeping a close eye on several economic developments this week that it says could affect the crypto market outlook.

QCP 市場策略師也在密切關注本週的幾項經濟發展，據稱這些發展可能會影響加密貨幣市場前景。

Crucial events include the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday, the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data on Thursday, and a speech from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday.

重要事件包括週三的美國消費者物價指數（CPI）數據、週四的美國生產者物價指數（PPI）數據以及週五聯準會主席鮑威爾的演講。

These announcements, QCP adds, will likely shape traders’ views on the Federal Reserve’s anticipated 25-basis-point rate cut in December.

QCP 補充道，這些公告可能會影響交易者對聯準會 12 月預期降息 25 個基點的看法。

According to QCP, if these events indicate a less favorable economic outlook, they could dampen market enthusiasm, leading to lower trading volumes and price corrections.

QCP 表示，如果這些事件顯示經濟前景不太樂觀，可能會抑制市場熱情，導致交易量下降和價格調整。

However, if the data aligns with market expectations for a December rate cut, BTC may continue to receive support from traders speculating on a positive economic trajectory.

然而，如果該數據符合市場對 12 月降息的預期，那麼 BTC 可能會繼續獲得猜測經濟向好軌蹟的交易員的支持。

QCP anticipates a consolidation phase for BTC in the near term, with the price “chopping around” current levels.

QCP 預計 BTC 在短期內將進入盤整階段，價格將「圍繞」當前水平「波動」。

This suggests the asset could remain range-bound until new information from macroeconomic events provides additional market direction.

這表明該資產可能會保持區間波動，直到宏觀經濟事件的新資訊提供額外的市場方向。

Despite the surge in BTC prices, QCP expects volatility levels to moderate, especially if the week’s economic announcements meet expectations.

儘管比特幣價格飆升，但 QCP 預計波動水平將會放緩，特別是如果本週的經濟公告符合預期的話。

As the cryptocurrency market awaits these updates, QCP highlights the need for a balanced approach during this period. While elevated perp funding and basis yields could indicate a temporary over-exuberance, QCP Capital’s analysis maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook, keeping a watchful eye on key economic indicators.

在加密貨幣市場等待這些更新之際，QCP 強調在此期間需要採取平衡的方法。雖然永久融資和基差收益率的上升可能表明暫時的過度繁榮，但 QCP Capital 的分析仍保持謹慎樂觀的前景，並密切關注關鍵經濟指標。