比特币（BTC）交换余额下降到8年低点，信号收紧了供应并更新机构利益

比特币（BTC）的交换余额已在八年来下降到其最低水平，因为区块链数据表明供应收紧并更新了机构利益。

NAIROBI (CoinChapter.com) – Bitcoin (BTC) exchange balances fell to their lowest in eight years as blockchain data showed tightening supply and renewed institutional interest. The move fueled debate on how high the coin can rise in the current cycle.

内罗毕（Coinchapter.com） - 比特币（BTC）的交换余额在八年来下降到最低，因为区块链数据显示供应收紧并更新了机构利益。此举激发了关于硬币在当前周期中的高度上升的争论。

As of March 27, Bitcoin’s supply on exchanges dropped to just 7.53%, reaching levels last seen in 2018, according to Santiment. The firm called the trend a “positive development,” adding that it usually reflects reduced short-term selling pressure.

据Santiment称，截至3月27日，比特币的交易所供应量仅下降到7.53％，达到了2018年的最后水平。该公司称该趋势为“积极发展”，并补充说，它通常反映了短期销售压力的减轻。

“The continued trend of coins moving into self-custody limits the chances of major sell-offs,” Santiment wrote on X.

Santiment在X上写道：“硬币转向自我群体的持续趋势限制了重大抛售的机会。”

The lowest reading in 8 years. As of yesterday, Bitcoin exchange balances fell to just 7.53%. This ties in closely with the high levels of coins being moved into self-custody, something we've been tracking closely and is a positive development. It lessens the chances of major sell-offs.

八年来最低的读数。截至昨天，比特币交换余额下降到仅7.53％。这与高水平的硬币紧密联系在一起，这是我们一直在仔细跟踪的自我顾客，这是一个积极的发展。它减少了主要抛售的机会。

— Santiment (@santiment) March 27, 2024

- santiment（@Santment）2024年3月27日

Bitcoin whales have been aggressively accumulating the coin since March 11, adding over 129,000 BTC, which at current prices amounts to $11.2 billion. According to Glassnode, the rate of accumulation was the fastest since August 2024.

自3月11日以来，比特币鲸一直积极积累硬币，增加了129,000多个BTC，目前价格为112亿美元。根据GlassNode的说法，自2024年8月以来的积累速率最快。

The uptick follows dovish comments from the Federal Reserve and eased concerns around new tariffs under President Trump’s administration, expected to begin on April 2.

在美联储的评论中，提升措施，并减轻了特朗普总统政府领导下的新关税的担忧，预计将于4月2日开始。

Whale addresses holding over 10,000 BTC began offsetting the steady selling pressure from retail traders. Meanwhile, consistent inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) supported the ongoing recovery.

持有超过10,000 BTC的鲸鱼地址开始抵消零售商人的稳定销售压力。同时，一致流入现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）支持了持续的恢复。

Since March 14, Bitcoin ETFs have seen net inflows every trading day, pushing BTC more than 10%. In comparison, from February 10 to March 13, ETF flows stalled and Bitcoin dropped 17%.

自3月14日以来，比特币ETF在每个交易日都看到净流入，将BTC推向了10％以上。相比之下，从2月10日到3月13日，ETF流停滞了，比特币下降了17％。

The data shows a direct link between institutional demand and BTC price direction.

数据显示了机构需求与BTC价格方向之间的直接联系。

Bitcoin STH-MVRV ratio fell below yearly average as exchange balances hit 8-year low (yellow). Source: Aksel Kibar

随着交换余额达到8年低点（黄色），比特币STH-MVRV比率低于年平均水平。资料来源：Aksel Kibar

Earlier cycles saw drops of 50–80% during bear markets, but today, even a 30% decline sparks similar concerns.

早期的周期在熊市中下降了50-80％，但如今，即使30％的下降也引起了类似的担忧。

The Short-Term Holder Market Value to Realized Value (STH-MVRV) ratio—a key on-chain metric—fell below its 365-day average on February 25. The move suggested bearish sentiment ahead of visible price drops.

短期持有人的市场价值对已实现价值（STH-MVRV）的比率（这是一个关键的链度指标）低于2月25日的365天平均水平。此举表明，在可见价格下降之前，此举表明看跌情绪。

While the metric remains below trend, analysts expect it to recover as exchange balances fall. Lower BTC availability for sale usually leads to relief rallies as supply tightens.

尽管公制仍然低于趋势，但分析师预计随着交换余额下降，它将恢复。较低的BTC可用性出售通常会导致供应收紧的救济集会。

As of press time, Bitcoin is trading at $87,653—still down 19% from its all-time high of $108,786. But bulls appear to be regaining momentum.

截至发稿时，比特币的交易价格为87,653美元，其历史最高点的高度为108,786美元。但是公牛似乎正在恢复动力。

Bitcoin price hovers above crucial support as Aksel Kibar warns against yearly average breach. Source: Aksel Kibar on X

随着阿克塞尔·基巴尔（Aksel Kibar）警告年度平均违规行为，比特币价格徘徊在关键支持之上。资料来源：X上的Aksel Kibar

Despite Accumulation, Prediction Markets Remain Cautious

尽管积累，预测市场仍然谨慎

However, sentiment on prediction markets remains conservative. On-chain data shared by Ashwin on March 27 shows Polymarket participants expect Bitcoin to peak at $138,617 in 2025.

但是，预测市场的情感仍然是保守的。阿什温（Ashwin）在3月27日共享的链上数据显示，Polymarket参与者预计比特币在2025年达到138,617美元的峰值。

The data suggests a potential upside of 60% from current levels, but also highlights downside bets as low as $59,000. Polymarket users see the $138K target as a more realistic ceiling compared to extreme bullish forecasts.

数据表明，目前水平的上涨空间为60％，但也突出显示下注赌注低至59,000美元。与极端看涨预测相比，Polymarket用户将13.8k的目标视为更现实的天花板。

Kalshi users have a similar outlook, setting their BTC price target at $122,000—just $11,500 above the current all-time high.

Kalshi用户的前景类似，将其BTC价格目标定为122,000美元，仅比目前的历史最高高11,500美元。

“This Polymarket data gives a realistic sentiment gauge, not just a bullish hope narrative,” said Ashwin.

阿什温说：“这个多聚市场数据给出了现实的情感计，而不仅仅是看涨的希望叙事。”

The analysis compares market sentiment scores with both bearish and bullish price targets.

该分析将市场情感评分与看跌和看涨的价格目标进行了比较。

A visualization of Polymarket and Kalshi users' predictions for Bitcoin in 2025. Both platforms highlight a potential peak around $138K. Source: Ashwin on X

在2025年，Polymarket和Kalshi用户对比特币的预测的可视化。这两个平台都突出了一个潜在的峰值，左右左右。资料来源：X上的Ashwin

With the yearly average sitting at $76,000, trader Aksel Kibar stressed that this level must hold.

由于年平均水平为76,000美元，交易员阿克塞尔·基巴尔（Aksel Kibar）强调，这一水平必须保持。

“Extremely important for the price not to breach the year-long average,” Kibar warned.

基巴尔警告说：“对于不违反一年的平均水平的价格非常重要。”

Key support lines lie at $69,000 and $73,800. Maintaining these levels could confirm that Bitcoin has exited its mini bear market and entered a consolidation phase.

关键支持线为69,000美元，$ 73,800。保持这些水平可以证实比特币已退出其迷你熊市并进入合并阶段。

Meanwhile, the “Bitcoin 1Y+ HOLD wave,” tracked by Bitbo Charts, continues trending up. This reflects a broader shift toward long-term holding among investors, adding to the bullish case.

同时，Bitbo图表跟踪的“比特币1Y+ Hold Wave”继续呈上升趋势。这反映了向投资者长期持有的更广泛的转变，从而增加了看涨的案件。