比特幣（BTC）交換餘額下降到8年低點，信號收緊了供應並更新機構利益

比特幣（BTC）的交換餘額已在八年來下降到其最低水平，因為區塊鏈數據表明供應收緊並更新了機構利益。

NAIROBI (CoinChapter.com) – Bitcoin (BTC) exchange balances fell to their lowest in eight years as blockchain data showed tightening supply and renewed institutional interest. The move fueled debate on how high the coin can rise in the current cycle.

內羅畢（Coinchapter.com） - 比特幣（BTC）的交換餘額在八年來下降到最低，因為區塊鏈數據顯示供應收緊並更新了機構利益。此舉激發了關於硬幣在當前週期中的高度上升的爭論。

As of March 27, Bitcoin’s supply on exchanges dropped to just 7.53%, reaching levels last seen in 2018, according to Santiment. The firm called the trend a “positive development,” adding that it usually reflects reduced short-term selling pressure.

據Santiment稱，截至3月27日，比特幣的交易所供應量僅下降到7.53％，達到了2018年的最後水平。該公司稱該趨勢為“積極發展”，並補充說，它通常反映了短期銷售壓力的減輕。

“The continued trend of coins moving into self-custody limits the chances of major sell-offs,” Santiment wrote on X.

Santiment在X上寫道：“硬幣轉向自我群體的持續趨勢限制了重大拋售的機會。”

The lowest reading in 8 years. As of yesterday, Bitcoin exchange balances fell to just 7.53%. This ties in closely with the high levels of coins being moved into self-custody, something we've been tracking closely and is a positive development. It lessens the chances of major sell-offs.

八年來最低的讀數。截至昨天，比特幣交換餘額下降到僅7.53％。這與高水平的硬幣緊密聯繫在一起，這是我們一直在仔細跟踪的自我顧客，這是一個積極的發展。它減少了主要拋售的機會。

— Santiment (@santiment) March 27, 2024

- santiment（@Santment）2024年3月27日

Bitcoin whales have been aggressively accumulating the coin since March 11, adding over 129,000 BTC, which at current prices amounts to $11.2 billion. According to Glassnode, the rate of accumulation was the fastest since August 2024.

自3月11日以來，比特幣鯨一直積極積累硬幣，增加了129,000多個BTC，目前價格為112億美元。根據GlassNode的說法，自2024年8月以來的積累速率最快。

The uptick follows dovish comments from the Federal Reserve and eased concerns around new tariffs under President Trump’s administration, expected to begin on April 2.

在美聯儲的評論中，提升措施，並減輕了特朗普總統政府領導下的新關稅的擔憂，預計將於4月2日開始。

Whale addresses holding over 10,000 BTC began offsetting the steady selling pressure from retail traders. Meanwhile, consistent inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) supported the ongoing recovery.

持有超過10,000 BTC的鯨魚地址開始抵消零售商人的穩定銷售壓力。同時，一致流入現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）支持了持續的恢復。

Since March 14, Bitcoin ETFs have seen net inflows every trading day, pushing BTC more than 10%. In comparison, from February 10 to March 13, ETF flows stalled and Bitcoin dropped 17%.

自3月14日以來，比特幣ETF在每個交易日都看到淨流入，將BTC推向了10％以上。相比之下，從2月10日到3月13日，ETF流停滯了，比特幣下降了17％。

The data shows a direct link between institutional demand and BTC price direction.

數據顯示了機構需求與BTC價格方向之間的直接聯繫。

Bitcoin STH-MVRV ratio fell below yearly average as exchange balances hit 8-year low (yellow). Source: Aksel Kibar

隨著交換餘額達到8年低點（黃色），比特幣STH-MVRV比率低於年平均水平。資料來源：Aksel Kibar

Earlier cycles saw drops of 50–80% during bear markets, but today, even a 30% decline sparks similar concerns.

早期的周期在熊市中下降了50-80％，但如今，即使30％的下降也引起了類似的擔憂。

The Short-Term Holder Market Value to Realized Value (STH-MVRV) ratio—a key on-chain metric—fell below its 365-day average on February 25. The move suggested bearish sentiment ahead of visible price drops.

短期持有人的市場價值對已實現價值（STH-MVRV）的比率（這是一個關鍵的鏈度指標）低於2月25日的365天平均水平。此舉表明，在可見價格下降之前，此舉表明看跌情緒。

While the metric remains below trend, analysts expect it to recover as exchange balances fall. Lower BTC availability for sale usually leads to relief rallies as supply tightens.

儘管公制仍然低於趨勢，但分析師預計隨著交換餘額下降，它將恢復。較低的BTC可用性出售通常會導致供應收緊的救濟集會。

As of press time, Bitcoin is trading at $87,653—still down 19% from its all-time high of $108,786. But bulls appear to be regaining momentum.

截至發稿時，比特幣的交易價格為87,653美元，其歷史最高點的高度為108,786美元。但是公牛似乎正在恢復動力。

Bitcoin price hovers above crucial support as Aksel Kibar warns against yearly average breach. Source: Aksel Kibar on X

隨著阿克塞爾·基巴爾（Aksel Kibar）警告年度平均違規行為，比特幣價格徘徊在關鍵支持之上。資料來源：X上的Aksel Kibar

Despite Accumulation, Prediction Markets Remain Cautious

儘管積累，預測市場仍然謹慎

However, sentiment on prediction markets remains conservative. On-chain data shared by Ashwin on March 27 shows Polymarket participants expect Bitcoin to peak at $138,617 in 2025.

但是，預測市場的情感仍然是保守的。阿什溫（Ashwin）在3月27日共享的鏈上數據顯示，Polymarket參與者預計比特幣在2025年達到138,617美元的峰值。

The data suggests a potential upside of 60% from current levels, but also highlights downside bets as low as $59,000. Polymarket users see the $138K target as a more realistic ceiling compared to extreme bullish forecasts.

數據表明，目前水平的上漲空間為60％，但也突出顯示下注賭注低至59,000美元。與極端看漲預測相比，Polymarket用戶將13.8k的目標視為更現實的天花板。

Kalshi users have a similar outlook, setting their BTC price target at $122,000—just $11,500 above the current all-time high.

Kalshi用戶的前景類似，將其BTC價格目標定為122,000美元，僅比目前的歷史最高高11,500美元。

“This Polymarket data gives a realistic sentiment gauge, not just a bullish hope narrative,” said Ashwin.

阿什溫說：“這個多聚市場數據給出了現實的情感計，而不僅僅是看漲的希望敘事。”

The analysis compares market sentiment scores with both bearish and bullish price targets.

該分析將市場情感評分與看跌和看漲的價格目標進行了比較。

A visualization of Polymarket and Kalshi users' predictions for Bitcoin in 2025. Both platforms highlight a potential peak around $138K. Source: Ashwin on X

在2025年，Polymarket和Kalshi用戶對比特幣的預測的可視化。這兩個平台都突出了一個潛在的峰值，左右左右。資料來源：X上的Ashwin

With the yearly average sitting at $76,000, trader Aksel Kibar stressed that this level must hold.

由於年平均水平為76,000美元，交易員阿克塞爾·基巴爾（Aksel Kibar）強調，這一水平必須保持。

“Extremely important for the price not to breach the year-long average,” Kibar warned.

基巴爾警告說：“對於不違反一年的平均水平的價格非常重要。”

Key support lines lie at $69,000 and $73,800. Maintaining these levels could confirm that Bitcoin has exited its mini bear market and entered a consolidation phase.

關鍵支持線為69,000美元，$ 73,800。保持這些水平可以證實比特幣已退出其迷你熊市並進入合併階段。

Meanwhile, the “Bitcoin 1Y+ HOLD wave,” tracked by Bitbo Charts, continues trending up. This reflects a broader shift toward long-term holding among investors, adding to the bullish case.

同時，Bitbo圖表跟踪的“比特幣1Y+ Hold Wave”繼續呈上升趨勢。這反映了向投資者長期持有的更廣泛的轉變，從而增加了看漲的案件。