比特币（BTC）下跌低于$ 83,000，但衍生品市场表明该下降应该是短暂的

比特币（BTC）最近的波动率强调了市场如何倾向于过度反应，尤其是在可以升级的情况下，例如贸易战。

Bitcoin (BTC) price dropped below the $83,000 mark on March 3 as the S&P 500 remained in correction territory, with the major U.S. stock market index down 6.5% since its all-time high on Feb. 19.

由于标准普尔500标准普尔（S＆P 500）仍然处于矫正领域，比特币（BTC）的价格下跌低于83,000美元，自2月19日的历史最高点以来，美国主要股票市场指数下跌了6.5％。

While a 6.5% drop in the S&P 500 might seem minor in absolute terms, it could have a more significant impact on the potential earnings impact.

尽管在绝对情况下，标准普尔500指数下降了6.5％，但这可能会对潜在的收入影响产生更大的影响。

However, derivatives markets suggest that Bitcoin’s move below $83,000 should be short-lived.

但是，衍生品市场表明，比特币的举动低于$ 83,000。

Chart showing the US 2-year Treasury yield (left) and Bitcoin/USD (right).

图表显示了美国两年期财政收益率（左）和比特币/美元（右）。

Traders tend to sell off assets when they sense a recession coming. Presently, investors are moving into cash and short-term government bonds.

交易者感觉到即将到来的衰退时，往往会出售资产。目前，投资者正在转移现金和短期政府债券。

This shift explains why the US 2-year Treasury yield recently hit its lowest level in five months. Traders are willing to accept lower yields, which shows strong buying interest.

这一转变解释了为什么美国两年期财政收益最近在五个月内达到了其最低水平。交易者愿意接受较低的收益率，这表明购买兴趣很强。

Bitcoin derivatives markets held firm despite the 16% correction since the rejection at $99,500 on Feb. 21, indicating that whales and market makers do not expect further declines.

比特币衍生品市场坚定地保持了16％的纠正，自2月21日拒绝以99,500美元的价格拒绝以来，这表明鲸鱼和做市商预计不会进一步下降。

More importantly, even if the much-anticipated United States strategic digital asset reserves fail to secure congressional approval, there is still strong political momentum at the state level, keeping the initiatives alive.

更重要的是，即使备受期待的美国战略性数字资产储备未能获得国会批准，在州一级仍然有强大的政治势头，以保持倡议的生命。

Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch

比特币2个月期货年度溢价。资料来源：laevitas.ch

Bitcoin futures maintained a stable 6.5% annualized premium (basis rate) over spot markets as of March 4, unchanged from the prior week. This metric remained within the neutral 5% to 10% range observed over the past four weeks—a clear indication that professional traders are unfazed by recent volatility, showing confidence in market stability.

截至3月4日，比特币期货在现货市场上保持了稳定的6.5％的年度溢价（基本率），与上一周保持不变。在过去的四个星期中，该度量仍然保持在中性的5％至10％范围内，这清楚地表明，专业交易者对最近的波动率并没有使市场稳定信心。

Bitcoin 30-day options delta skew (put-call). Source: Laevitas.ch

比特币30天选项delta偏斜（plat-call）。资料来源：laevitas.ch

The Bitcoin options 25% delta skew (put-call) stood at 4% on March 4, reflecting balanced pricing between put (sell) and call (buy) options. Given the failed attempt to reclaim the $94,000 support on March 3, the low demand for protective puts signals resilience among investors.

3月4日，比特币选项25％的三角洲偏斜（Put-tall）为4％，反映出PUT（卖出）和呼叫（买入）选项之间的平衡定价。鉴于3月3日在3月3日获得94,000美元支持的尝试失败，因此对保护性投资人的弹性的低需求。

Bitcoin’s dip below $83,000 reflects macroeconomic uncertainty

比特币的下跌低于$ 83,000反映宏观经济不确定性

US Senator Cynthia Lummis predicted that state governments will likely adopt Bitcoin into strategic reserves before the federal government. Utah’s HB230 “Blockchain and Digital Innovation Amendments” bill has already passed the House and, if approved by the Senate, could allocate up to 5% of state reserves to Bitcoin through a qualified custodian or exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

美国参议员辛西娅·卢米斯（Cynthia Lummis）预测，州政府可能会在联邦政府面前采用比特币中的战略储备。犹他州的HB230“区块链和数字创新修正案”法案已经通过了众议院，如果得到参议院的批准，则可以通过合格的保管人或交易所交易的资金（ETF）将多达5％的国家储量分配给比特币。

However, Bitcoin’s ability to regain bullish momentum remains closely tied to traditional market sentiment. Traders worry that 20% or greater two-week price drops in companies like Tesla, TSM, Broadcom, and ARM signal that the artificial intelligence sector has entered a bear market, potentially impacting sales of the world’s largest corporations and reducing investor appetite for risk assets.

但是，比特币重新获得看涨势头的能力仍然与传统市场情绪紧密相关。交易者担心特斯拉，TSM，Broadcom和ARM等公司的20％或更高的价格下跌，表明人工智能部门已经进入了熊市市场，可能会影响全球最大的公司的销售，并减少投资者对风险资产的偏见。

Investors are worried that US economic growth will slow down, and this seems likely based on the Atlanta Fed’s real GDP estimate. If the US economy contracts by 2% or more in the first quarter, the valuations of publicly listed companies could drop sharply.

投资者担心美国的经济增长会放缓，这似乎是基于亚特兰大美联储真正的GDP估计值的。如果美国经济在第一季度签约2％或更多，那么公开上市公司的估值可能会急剧下降。

At the same time, higher vacancies in commercial real estate could increase credit risks, putting serious pressure on the banking sector.

同时，商业房地产的较高空缺可能会增加信用风险，从而对银行业造成巨大压力。

The recent drop in Bitcoin below $83,000 is not really tied to the success or failure of the US digital asset strategic reserve. Instead, investors are pulling out of riskier assets like artificial intelligence stocks and consumer cyclical companies.

比特币最近下跌83,000美元的下跌与美国数字资产战略储备的成功或失败并没有真正的联系。取而代之的是，投资者正在摆脱诸如人工智能股票和消费者周期性公司等风险的资产。

On March 3, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $74 million in outflows, adding to the uncertainty. Investors worry that institutional demand will remain weak, reflecting a tougher macroeconomic environment.

3月3日，现货比特币ETF的流出额为7400万美元，增加了不确定性。投资者担心机构需求将保持疲软，这反映了更艰难的宏观经济环境。

Chances are Bitcoin’s price will remain below $90,000 until the S&P 500 shows that a normal correction is over—when investors fear a recession, they cut back on risky assets. Still, Bitcoin derivatives data suggests the risk of a bigger drop is low for now.

比特币的价格将保持在90,000美元以下，直到标准普尔500指数表明正常的更正已经结束 - 当投资者担心经济衰退时，他们减少了风险的资产。尽管如此，比特币衍生品数据表明，暂时更大的下降风险仍然很低。

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

本文是出于一般信息目的，不打算被视为法律或投资建议。这里表达的观点，思想和观点是作者独自一人，不一定反映或代表Cointelegraph的观点和观点。