比特幣（BTC）下跌低於$ 83,000，但衍生品市場表明該下降應該是短暫的

比特幣（BTC）最近的波動率強調了市場如何傾向於過度反應，尤其是在可以升級的情況下，例如貿易戰。

Bitcoin (BTC) price dropped below the $83,000 mark on March 3 as the S&P 500 remained in correction territory, with the major U.S. stock market index down 6.5% since its all-time high on Feb. 19.

由於標準普爾500標準普爾（S＆P 500）仍然處於矯正領域，比特幣（BTC）的價格下跌低於83,000美元，自2月19日的歷史最高點以來，美國主要股票市場指數下跌了6.5％。

While a 6.5% drop in the S&P 500 might seem minor in absolute terms, it could have a more significant impact on the potential earnings impact.

儘管在絕對情況下，標準普爾500指數下降了6.5％，但這可能會對潛在的收入影響產生更大的影響。

However, derivatives markets suggest that Bitcoin’s move below $83,000 should be short-lived.

但是，衍生品市場表明，比特幣的舉動低於$ 83,000。

Chart showing the US 2-year Treasury yield (left) and Bitcoin/USD (right).

圖表顯示了美國兩年期財政收益率（左）和比特幣/美元（右）。

Traders tend to sell off assets when they sense a recession coming. Presently, investors are moving into cash and short-term government bonds.

交易者感覺到即將到來的衰退時，往往會出售資產。目前，投資者正在轉移現金和短期政府債券。

This shift explains why the US 2-year Treasury yield recently hit its lowest level in five months. Traders are willing to accept lower yields, which shows strong buying interest.

這一轉變解釋了為什麼美國兩年期財政收益最近在五個月內達到了其最低水平。交易者願意接受較低的收益率，這表明購買興趣很強。

Bitcoin derivatives markets held firm despite the 16% correction since the rejection at $99,500 on Feb. 21, indicating that whales and market makers do not expect further declines.

比特幣衍生品市場堅定地保持了16％的糾正，自2月21日拒絕以99,500美元的價格拒絕以來，這表明鯨魚和做市商預計不會進一步下降。

More importantly, even if the much-anticipated United States strategic digital asset reserves fail to secure congressional approval, there is still strong political momentum at the state level, keeping the initiatives alive.

更重要的是，即使備受期待的美國戰略性數字資產儲備未能獲得國會批准，在州一級仍然有強大的政治勢頭，以保持倡議的生命。

Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch

比特幣2個月期貨年度溢價。資料來源：laevitas.ch

Bitcoin futures maintained a stable 6.5% annualized premium (basis rate) over spot markets as of March 4, unchanged from the prior week. This metric remained within the neutral 5% to 10% range observed over the past four weeks—a clear indication that professional traders are unfazed by recent volatility, showing confidence in market stability.

截至3月4日，比特幣期貨在現貨市場上保持了穩定的6.5％的年度溢價（基本率），與上一周保持不變。在過去的四個星期中，該度量仍然保持在中性的5％至10％範圍內，這清楚地表明，專業交易者對最近的波動率並沒有使市場穩定信心。

Bitcoin 30-day options delta skew (put-call). Source: Laevitas.ch

比特幣30天選項delta偏斜（plat-call）。資料來源：laevitas.ch

The Bitcoin options 25% delta skew (put-call) stood at 4% on March 4, reflecting balanced pricing between put (sell) and call (buy) options. Given the failed attempt to reclaim the $94,000 support on March 3, the low demand for protective puts signals resilience among investors.

3月4日，比特幣選項25％的三角洲偏斜（Put-tall）為4％，反映出PUT（賣出）和呼叫（買入）選項之間的平衡定價。鑑於3月3日在3月3日獲得94,000美元支持的嘗試失敗，因此對保護性投資人的彈性的低需求。

Bitcoin’s dip below $83,000 reflects macroeconomic uncertainty

比特幣的下跌低於$ 83,000反映宏觀經濟不確定性

US Senator Cynthia Lummis predicted that state governments will likely adopt Bitcoin into strategic reserves before the federal government. Utah’s HB230 “Blockchain and Digital Innovation Amendments” bill has already passed the House and, if approved by the Senate, could allocate up to 5% of state reserves to Bitcoin through a qualified custodian or exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

美國參議員辛西婭·盧米斯（Cynthia Lummis）預測，州政府可能會在聯邦政府面前採用比特幣中的戰略儲備。猶他州的HB230“區塊鍊和數字創新修正案”法案已經通過了眾議院，如果得到參議院的批准，則可以通過合格的保管人或交易所交易的資金（ETF）將多達5％的國家儲量分配給比特幣。

However, Bitcoin’s ability to regain bullish momentum remains closely tied to traditional market sentiment. Traders worry that 20% or greater two-week price drops in companies like Tesla, TSM, Broadcom, and ARM signal that the artificial intelligence sector has entered a bear market, potentially impacting sales of the world’s largest corporations and reducing investor appetite for risk assets.

但是，比特幣重新獲得看漲勢頭的能力仍然與傳統市場情緒緊密相關。交易者擔心特斯拉，TSM，Broadcom和ARM等公司的20％或更高的價格下跌，表明人工智能部門已經進入了熊市市場，可能會影響全球最大的公司的銷售，並減少投資者對風險資產的偏見。

Investors are worried that US economic growth will slow down, and this seems likely based on the Atlanta Fed’s real GDP estimate. If the US economy contracts by 2% or more in the first quarter, the valuations of publicly listed companies could drop sharply.

投資者擔心美國的經濟增長會放緩，這似乎是基於亞特蘭大美聯儲真正的GDP估計值的。如果美國經濟在第一季度簽約2％或更多，那麼公開上市公司的估值可能會急劇下降。

At the same time, higher vacancies in commercial real estate could increase credit risks, putting serious pressure on the banking sector.

同時，商業房地產的較高空缺可能會增加信用風險，從而對銀行業造成巨大壓力。

The recent drop in Bitcoin below $83,000 is not really tied to the success or failure of the US digital asset strategic reserve. Instead, investors are pulling out of riskier assets like artificial intelligence stocks and consumer cyclical companies.

比特幣最近下跌83,000美元的下跌與美國數字資產戰略儲備的成功或失敗並沒有真正的聯繫。取而代之的是，投資者正在擺脫諸如人工智能股票和消費者周期性公司等風險的資產。

On March 3, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $74 million in outflows, adding to the uncertainty. Investors worry that institutional demand will remain weak, reflecting a tougher macroeconomic environment.

3月3日，現貨比特幣ETF的流出額為7400萬美元，增加了不確定性。投資者擔心機構需求將保持疲軟，這反映了更艱難的宏觀經濟環境。

Chances are Bitcoin’s price will remain below $90,000 until the S&P 500 shows that a normal correction is over—when investors fear a recession, they cut back on risky assets. Still, Bitcoin derivatives data suggests the risk of a bigger drop is low for now.

比特幣的價格將保持在90,000美元以下，直到標準普爾500指數表明正常的更正已經結束 - 當投資者擔心經濟衰退時，他們減少了風險的資產。儘管如此，比特幣衍生品數據表明，暫時更大的下降風險仍然很低。

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

本文是出於一般信息目的，不打算被視為法律或投資建議。這裡表達的觀點，思想和觀點是作者獨自一人，不一定反映或代表Cointelegraph的觀點和觀點。