特朗普的關稅重磅炸彈後，比特幣墜毀

週三下午，特朗普總統聲稱將“一次”向185個國家 /地區徵收的一系列廣泛的“互惠關稅”震撼了市場。

The Bitcoin price slid by 7.2%—from $88,526 to $82,150—within the span of four hours following the reciprocal tariff announcement by US President Donald Trump on Wednesday. The precipitous drop aligns with a broader market rout set off by what has been described as one of the largest tariff packages in modern US history.

比特幣的價格下跌了7.2％，從88,526美元到82,150美元 - 在美國總統唐納德·特朗普週三的互惠關稅公告之後的四個小時的跨度。急劇的下降與更廣泛的市場潰敗相吻合，而這被描述為現代美國歷史上最大的關稅套餐之一。

Bitcoin Crashes After Trump’s Tariff Bombshell

特朗普的關稅重磅炸彈後，比特幣墜毀

On Wednesday afternoon, markets were jolted by a sweeping set of “reciprocal tariffs” that President Trump claimed would be levied on 185 countries “all at once.” The news sent ripples across global finance, with the S&P 500 futures market reportedly shedding $2 trillion of market capitalization in under 15 minutes.

週三下午，特朗普總統聲稱將“一次”向185個國家 /地區徵收的一系列廣泛的“互惠關稅”震撼了市場。這一消息使全球金融上的漣漪散發出了漣漪，據報導，標準普爾500年期貨市場在15分鐘內省下了2萬億美元的市值。

According to The Kobeissi Letter (via X): “Reciprocal tariffs are officially HERE: President Trump just announced tariffs on 185 countries AT ONCE, one of the largest tariffs in US history. S&P 500 futures erased -$2 TRILLION of market cap in under 15 minutes. ”

根據Kobeissi的信（通過X）：“互惠關稅正式在這裡：特朗普總統剛剛宣布了一次對185個國家 /地區的關稅，這是美國歷史上最大的關稅之一。標準普爾500年的期貨 - 25萬美元的市值在15分鐘以下。”

The initial press coverage noted a 10% baseline tariff. However, as Trump spoke, the scheme’s complexity and scope became more apparent. He clarified that tariffs would be “reciprocal” but set to half of whatever rate another country currently imposes on US goods—a figure well beyond the 10% baseline in many cases.

最初的新聞報導指出基線關稅10％。但是，正如特朗普所說的那樣，該計劃的複雜性和範圍變得越來越明顯。他澄清說，關稅將是“互惠”，但將目前對美國商品施加的任何稅率的一半降為一半 - 在許多情況下，這一數字遠遠超出了10％的基準。

China, for instance, reportedly applies 67% tariffs on certain imports from the United States, suggesting a 34% tariff reciprocally aimed at Chinese imports. Meanwhile, the European Union could face a 20% tariff. “This is VASTLY different than a 10% tariff across the board,” The Kobeissi Letter pointed out, adding that these significantly higher rates created massive volatility.

例如，據報導，中國對來自美國的某些進口徵收67％的關稅，這表明對中國進口的關稅有34％的關稅。同時，歐盟可能面臨20％的關稅。 “這與總體上的10％的關稅有很大的不同。” Kobeissi的信指出，並補充說，這些比率顯著造成了巨大的波動性。

At one point in Trump’s announcement, the S&P 500 futures reversed from being up 2% to dropping 4%—an abrupt 6-percentage-point swing in under 20 minutes. By the time the “Make America Wealthy Again Event” concluded, the markets had sustained those losses, with Nasdaq 100 futures indicating a potential 500-point decline from prior levels.

在特朗普宣布的某一時刻，標準普爾500指貨從增長2％升至4％，這是在20分鐘內突然的6％的揮桿。到“使美國再次富裕的事件”結束時，市場已經持續了這些損失，納斯達克100期貨期貨可能從先前水平下降了500點。

Bitcoin, which was up 8.9% since Monday morning, instantly experienced the same turmoil, shedding 7.2% of its value. Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, remarked via X: “I hope Bitcoiners learn that Trump’s tariffs are a net negative for Bitcoin and the US economy.”He further elaborated: “Trump has introduced too much uncertainty to the world economy with his tariffs. There’s a high enough chance of recession if the tariffs last long enough. This of course has hit Bitcoin and crypto prices in spite of a positive regulatory environment and [the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve].”

比特幣自周一早上以來上漲了8.9％，立即經歷了相同的動盪，降低了其價值的7.2％。加密富裕研究負責人朱利奧·莫雷諾（Julio Moreno）在X上說：“我希望比特幣的關稅對比特幣和美國經濟的淨負面影響。”他進一步闡述：“特朗普對世界經濟的不確定性過多，因為他的關稅很長時間，如果有足夠的優勢，那麼如果有足夠的優勢，那麼這個不足的價格就會佔有一致。和[戰略比特幣儲備]。”

Economic Projections

經濟預測

While the precise long-term effects remain unclear, several prominent institutions have already issued forecasts.

儘管確切的長期影響尚不清楚，但一些重要的機構已經發布了預測。

JPMorgan analysts warn: “On a static basis, today’s announcement would raise just under $400 billion in revenue, or about 1.3% of GDP, which would be the largest tax increase since the Revenue Act of 1968. We estimate that today’s announced measures could boost PCE prices by 1–1.5% this year… This impact alone could take the economy perilously close to slipping into recession. And this is before accounting for the additional hits to gross exports and to investment spending.”

摩根大通分析師警告說：“在靜態的基礎上，今天的宣布將籌集到不到4000億美元的收入，約佔GDP的1.3％，這將是自1968年《收入收入法》以來最大的稅收增加。我們估計，當今宣布的措施可能會使PCE的價格促進了這一年的1-1.5％，這將使這一數量增加了1-1.5％的境地，這將使經濟逐步銷售，然後將其訴諸危險的訴訟，這是訴訟中的訴訟。總體出口和投資支出。”

Simultaneously, The Kobeissi Letter noted that the average US tariff rate—once the new set of duties is enforced—could exceed levels not seen since World War II. They cautioned that the White House’s targeted tariff revenue of $600 billion per year may be optimistic, suggesting only half that amount might materialize based on current data. Additional exemptions—such as copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and lumber—amplified the confusion, indicating that the tariffs will vary widely by sector and country of origin.

同時，Kobeissi的信指出，美國的普通關稅率（一套新的職責被執行）可能會超過自第二次世界大戰以來未見的水平。他們警告說，白宮的目標收入為每年6000億美元的目標收入可能是樂觀的，這表明只有一半的金額可能會根據當前數據而實現。其他豁免（例如銅，藥品，半導體和木材）增加了混亂，表明關稅會因部門和原籍國而差異很大。

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UBS, as quoted by The Kobeissi Letter, also raised the alarm about inflation: “BREAKING: UBS says a permanent implementation of President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs would result in inflation rising to 5%. This would be a result of prices adjusting to the higher costs of imports. We are on the verge of 5% inflation and negative GDP growth.”

正如Kobeissi信件所引用的，瑞銀也引起了人們對通貨膨脹的警報：“破壞：瑞銀說，特朗普總統的互惠關稅的永久實施將導致通貨膨脹率上升到5％。這將導致價格調整到進口成本上的價格。

Although President Trump hinted at forthcoming “largest tax cuts in American history,” markets did not bounce back on that news. He specified that Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security benefits would be spared from cuts, but investors and analysts appeared more focused on the immediate shock from the tariff package.

儘管特朗普總統暗示了即將推出的“美國歷史上最大的減稅”，但市場並沒有回到這一消息。他指出，醫療保險，醫療補助和社會保障福利將從削減中保留下來，但投資者和分析師似乎更專注於關稅套餐的直接衝擊。

At press time, BTC recovered to $83,207.

發稿時，BTC恢復到83,207美元。