特朗普的关税重磅炸弹后，比特币坠毁

周三下午，特朗普总统声称将“一次”向185个国家 /地区征收的一系列广泛的“互惠关税”震撼了市场。

The Bitcoin price slid by 7.2%—from $88,526 to $82,150—within the span of four hours following the reciprocal tariff announcement by US President Donald Trump on Wednesday. The precipitous drop aligns with a broader market rout set off by what has been described as one of the largest tariff packages in modern US history.

比特币的价格下跌了7.2％，从88,526美元到82,150美元 - 在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周三的互惠关税公告之后的四个小时的跨度。急剧的下降与更广泛的市场溃败相吻合，而这被描述为现代美国历史上最大的关税套餐之一。

Bitcoin Crashes After Trump’s Tariff Bombshell

特朗普的关税重磅炸弹后，比特币坠毁

On Wednesday afternoon, markets were jolted by a sweeping set of “reciprocal tariffs” that President Trump claimed would be levied on 185 countries “all at once.” The news sent ripples across global finance, with the S&P 500 futures market reportedly shedding $2 trillion of market capitalization in under 15 minutes.

周三下午，特朗普总统声称将“一次”向185个国家 /地区征收的一系列广泛的“互惠关税”震撼了市场。这一消息使全球金融上的涟漪散发出了涟漪，据报道，标准普尔500年期货市场在15分钟内省下了2万亿美元的市值。

According to The Kobeissi Letter (via X): “Reciprocal tariffs are officially HERE: President Trump just announced tariffs on 185 countries AT ONCE, one of the largest tariffs in US history. S&P 500 futures erased -$2 TRILLION of market cap in under 15 minutes. ”

根据Kobeissi的信（通过X）：“互惠关税正式在这里：特朗普总统刚刚宣布了一次对185个国家 /地区的关税，这是美国历史上最大的关税之一。标准普尔500年的期货 - 25万美元的市值在15分钟以下。”

The initial press coverage noted a 10% baseline tariff. However, as Trump spoke, the scheme’s complexity and scope became more apparent. He clarified that tariffs would be “reciprocal” but set to half of whatever rate another country currently imposes on US goods—a figure well beyond the 10% baseline in many cases.

最初的新闻报道指出基线关税10％。但是，正如特朗普所说的那样，该计划的复杂性和范围变得越来越明显。他澄清说，关税将是“互惠”，但将目前对美国商品施加的任何税率的一半降为一半 - 在许多情况下，这一数字远远超出了10％的基准。

China, for instance, reportedly applies 67% tariffs on certain imports from the United States, suggesting a 34% tariff reciprocally aimed at Chinese imports. Meanwhile, the European Union could face a 20% tariff. “This is VASTLY different than a 10% tariff across the board,” The Kobeissi Letter pointed out, adding that these significantly higher rates created massive volatility.

例如，据报道，中国对来自美国的某些进口征收67％的关税，这表明对中国进口的关税有34％的关税。同时，欧盟可能面临20％的关税。 “这与总体上的10％的关税有很大的不同。” Kobeissi的信指出，并补充说，这些比率显着造成了巨大的波动性。

At one point in Trump’s announcement, the S&P 500 futures reversed from being up 2% to dropping 4%—an abrupt 6-percentage-point swing in under 20 minutes. By the time the “Make America Wealthy Again Event” concluded, the markets had sustained those losses, with Nasdaq 100 futures indicating a potential 500-point decline from prior levels.

在特朗普宣布的某一时刻，标准普尔500指货从增长2％升至4％，这是在20分钟内突然的6％的挥杆。到“使美国再次富裕的事件”结束时，市场已经持续了这些损失，纳斯达克100期货期货可能从先前水平下降了500点。

Bitcoin, which was up 8.9% since Monday morning, instantly experienced the same turmoil, shedding 7.2% of its value. Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, remarked via X: “I hope Bitcoiners learn that Trump’s tariffs are a net negative for Bitcoin and the US economy.”He further elaborated: “Trump has introduced too much uncertainty to the world economy with his tariffs. There’s a high enough chance of recession if the tariffs last long enough. This of course has hit Bitcoin and crypto prices in spite of a positive regulatory environment and [the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve].”

比特币自周一早上以来上涨了8.9％，立即经历了相同的动荡，降低了其价值的7.2％。加密富裕研究负责人朱利奥·莫雷诺（Julio Moreno）在X上说：“我希望比特币的关税对比特币和美国经济的净负面影响。”他进一步阐述：“特朗普对世界经济的不确定性过多，因为他的关税很长时间，如果有足够的优势，那么如果有足够的优势，那么这个不足的价格就会占有一致。和[战略比特币储备]。”

Economic Projections

经济预测

While the precise long-term effects remain unclear, several prominent institutions have already issued forecasts.

尽管确切的长期影响尚不清楚，但一些重要的机构已经发布了预测。

JPMorgan analysts warn: “On a static basis, today’s announcement would raise just under $400 billion in revenue, or about 1.3% of GDP, which would be the largest tax increase since the Revenue Act of 1968. We estimate that today’s announced measures could boost PCE prices by 1–1.5% this year… This impact alone could take the economy perilously close to slipping into recession. And this is before accounting for the additional hits to gross exports and to investment spending.”

摩根大通分析师警告说：“在静态的基础上，今天的宣布将筹集到不到4000亿美元的收入，约占GDP的1.3％，这将是自1968年《收入收入法》以来最大的税收增加。我们估计，当今宣布的措施可能会使PCE的价格促进了这一年的1-1.5％，这将使这一数量增加了1-1.5％的境地，这将使经济逐步销售，然后将其诉诸危险的诉讼，这是诉讼中的诉讼。总体出口和投资支出。”

Simultaneously, The Kobeissi Letter noted that the average US tariff rate—once the new set of duties is enforced—could exceed levels not seen since World War II. They cautioned that the White House’s targeted tariff revenue of $600 billion per year may be optimistic, suggesting only half that amount might materialize based on current data. Additional exemptions—such as copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and lumber—amplified the confusion, indicating that the tariffs will vary widely by sector and country of origin.

同时，Kobeissi的信指出，美国的普通关税率（一套新的职责被执行）可能会超过自第二次世界大战以来未见的水平。他们警告说，白宫的目标收入为每年6000亿美元的目标收入可能是乐观的，这表明只有一半的金额可能会根据当前数据而实现。其他豁免（例如铜，药品，半导体和木材）增加了混乱，表明关税会因部门和原籍国而差异很大。

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UBS, as quoted by The Kobeissi Letter, also raised the alarm about inflation: “BREAKING: UBS says a permanent implementation of President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs would result in inflation rising to 5%. This would be a result of prices adjusting to the higher costs of imports. We are on the verge of 5% inflation and negative GDP growth.”

正如Kobeissi信件所引用的，瑞银也引起了人们对通货膨胀的警报：“破坏：瑞银说，特朗普总统的互惠关税的永久实施将导致通货膨胀率上升到5％。这将导致价格调整到进口成本上的价格。

Although President Trump hinted at forthcoming “largest tax cuts in American history,” markets did not bounce back on that news. He specified that Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security benefits would be spared from cuts, but investors and analysts appeared more focused on the immediate shock from the tariff package.

尽管特朗普总统暗示了即将推出的“美国历史上最大的减税”，但市场并没有回到这一消息。他指出，医疗保险，医疗补助和社会保障福利将从削减中保留下来，但投资者和分析师似乎更专注于关税套餐的直接冲击。

At press time, BTC recovered to $83,207.

发稿时，BTC恢复到83,207美元。