比特币（BTC）数字黄金吗？

不管在加密生态系统还是非透明生态系统中，在支持比特币（包括我们在内）的人中，坚定的信念一直是：

Regardless of whether in the crypto ecosystem or the non-crypto ecosystem, a firmly held belief among those who support Bitcoin (including us) has long been:

不管在加密生态系统还是非透明生态系统中，在支持比特币（包括我们在内）的人中，坚定的信念一直是：

Bitcoin is "digital gold."

比特币是“数字黄金”。

I have never doubted this viewpoint.

我从来没有怀疑这个观点。

However, over the years, the increasing correlation between Bitcoin and the U.S. stock market, along with its diverging trends from gold, has led me to question this perspective.

但是，多年来，比特币与美国股票市场之间的相关性不断增加，以及它与黄金的不同趋势，使我质疑这一观点。

Because if Bitcoin truly is, as we imagine, "digital gold," then after all these years, with the community expanding so much and holders transitioning from a small group of early enthusiasts to an increasingly mainstream group of institutional investors, its consensus should have strengthened many times over, and people's faith in it should have solidified countless times. Under such reinforcement, it should behave more and more like gold.

因为正如我们想象的那样，如果比特币确实是“数字黄金”，那么在这些年之后，社区的扩大如此之多，并且持有人从一小群早期发烧友过渡到越来越多的机构投资者组成的主流群体，那么它的共识应该加强了很多次，人们的信仰应该巩固了无数的数量。在这样的强化下，它应该越来越像黄金。

But if we carefully reflect on Bitcoin's performance in recent years, we can see that it has not increasingly resembled gold.

但是，如果我们近年来仔细地反思比特币的性能，我们可以看到它并没有越来越类似于黄金。

A typical behavior of gold is: when the world becomes more chaotic and people's confidence in fiat currency (especially the U.S. dollar) or the existing financial system weakens, they embrace gold and abandon fiat currency.

黄金的典型行为是：当世界变得更加混乱，人们对法定货币（尤其是美元）或现有的金融体系的信心减弱时，他们就会拥抱黄金并放弃法定货币。

If we look back at not-so-distant history, we can see this effect of gold more clearly.

如果我们回顾不太遥远的历史，我们可以更清楚地看到黄金的这种效果。

Before the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, all the world's fiat currencies were pegged to the dollar, and the dollar was pegged to gold. In the earlier industrial revolution period, the pound and many fiat currencies of developed capitalist countries were directly pegged to gold, known as the gold standard.

在布雷顿森林系统崩溃之前，世界上所有的法定货币都挂在美元上，而美元挂在黄金上。在较早的工业革命时期，发达的资本主义国家的英镑和许多法定货币直接与黄金挂钩，称为黄金标准。

In those times, all measures of value were ultimately assessed in gold.

在那个时候，所有价值衡量标准最终都以黄金评估。

If the Bretρον Woods system and the gold standard feel too unfamiliar to us, we might consider the historical accounts of the financial situation of the Nationalist government during its last two years on the mainland:

如果布雷特ρον伍兹系统和黄金标准对我们来说太陌生了，我们可能会考虑国民党在大陆上的财务状况的历史记录：

The rampant issuance of gold yuan notes and silver dollar notes led to a complete loss of credibility for fiat currency, and people only used gold for large transactions. "Huangyu" was the nickname people gave to gold during that time.

金元票据和银元票据的猖s发行导致菲亚特货币的信誉完全丧失，人们只将黄金用于大型交易。 “ Huangyu”是人们在那段时间给黄金的昵称。

Throughout 5,000 years of human history, gold has played this role for the vast majority of the time. In most periods, whether for nations or individuals, the ultimate measure of wealth has been how much gold one possesses.

在5，000年的人类历史上，黄金在绝大多数时间内都扮演了这一角色。在大多数时期，无论是国家还是个人，最终的财富衡量是人们拥有多少黄金。

Has Bitcoin's evolution and development achieved this effect, or will we increasingly agree that when people lose confidence in fiat currency and the existing financial system, they will embrace Bitcoin and use Bitcoin as a measure of their wealth?

比特币的进化和发展是否实现了这一影响，还是我们越来越同意，当人们对菲亚特货币和现有金融体系失去信心时，他们将拥抱比特币并使用比特币作为衡量其财富的衡量？

We might say so, but what we say often is not as honest as our actual actions.

我们可能会这么说，但是我们经常说的不像我们的实际行动那样诚实。

If we hold one Bitcoin, and its market price was $100,000 yesterday, but today it has plummeted to $50,000, if we trust Bitcoin more or measure our wealth in Bitcoin, we should remain calm and indifferent.

如果我们持有一个比特币，昨天的市场价格为100,000美元，但是今天它已经下降到50,000美元，如果我们更信任比特币或用比特币来衡量我们的财富，我们应该保持冷静和冷漠。

But I believe 95% of holders would likely be lamenting, "If only I had sold yesterday."

但是我相信95％的持有人可能会感叹，“如果我昨天只卖了。”

This actually reflects a greater trust in the dollar, measuring wealth in dollar terms.

这实际上反映了对美元的更大信任，以美元计量的财富来衡量财富。

Let’s imagine another historical scenario to see what would happen if this scenario occurred with gold:

让我们想象另一种历史场景，看看如果黄金发生这种情况会发生什么：

On a certain day in 1948, in Shanghai, a yellow fish could be exchanged for 1 million gold yuan notes, but today it can only be exchanged for 500,000 gold yuan notes. Would the people of Shanghai be scrambling to exchange their gold yuan notes for yellow fish, or would they be lamenting, "If only I had sold the yellow fish yesterday"?

1948年的某个一天，在上海，一条黄鱼可以换成100万个金元的钞票，但今天只能将其换成500,000 Gold yuan笔记。上海人民会争先恐后地将他们的金元音换成黄鱼，还是会为“如果我昨天只卖黄鱼”而感叹？

I think the answer is self-evident; who would still dare to trust gold yuan notes?

我认为答案是不言而喻的。谁仍然敢相信金元的笔记？

This comparison helps clarify the distinction between Bitcoin and gold.

这种比较有助于阐明比特币和黄金之间的区别。

In fact, in the early days of Bitcoin's inception, those idealistic enthusiasts were the ones who believed in Bitcoin more; they were more willing to measure their crypto assets in Bitcoin terms. Conversely, as crypto assets have developed and more mainstream individuals and institutions have entered this ecosystem, an increasing number of holders trust stablecoins more and prefer to measure their crypto assets in dollars (stablecoins).

实际上，在比特币成立的早期，那些理想主义的爱好者就是那些相信比特币的爱好者。他们更愿意用比特币衡量加密货币资产。相反，随着加密资产的发展，越来越多的主流个人和机构进入了该生态系统，越来越多的持有人信任稳定稳定人，并且更喜欢以美元（Stablecoins）来衡量其加密货币资产。

Of course, we often see some people claim to hold a certain amount of Bitcoin, but in my view, this does not mean they trust Bitcoin more or measure their assets in Bitcoin; rather, they trust the dollar value of Bitcoin after conversion, caring more about how much their Bitcoin is worth in dollars. Here, Bitcoin is similar to real estate as a wealth target.

当然，我们经常看到有些人声称拥有一定数量的比特币，但我认为，这并不意味着他们更多地相信比特币或在比特币中衡量其资产。相反，他们相信转换后比特币的美元价值，更关心比特币的价值。在这里，比特币类似于房地产作为财富目标。

Gold took 5,000 years to establish its financial and monetary attributes in history and in people's hearts, but Bitcoin does not have such a history.

黄金花了5，000年的时间来建立其历史和人们心中的财务和货币属性，但比特币没有这样的历史。

Lacking the trials and tribulations of history, at least for now, it is hard to say that Bitcoin resembles gold.

缺乏历史的试验和磨难，至少在目前，很难说比特币类似于黄金。

There is another viewpoint that considers Bitcoin as a hedge against the real world.

还有另一种观点将比特币视为对冲现实世界的对冲。

However, if we carefully review Bitcoin's performance during crises in real life over the years, we find that

但是，如果我们多年来仔细审查现实生活中危机期间比特币的表现，我们会发现