比特幣（BTC）數字黃金嗎？

不管在加密生態系統還是非透明生態系統中，在支持比特幣（包括我們在內）的人中，堅定的信念一直是：

Regardless of whether in the crypto ecosystem or the non-crypto ecosystem, a firmly held belief among those who support Bitcoin (including us) has long been:

不管在加密生態系統還是非透明生態系統中，在支持比特幣（包括我們在內）的人中，堅定的信念一直是：

Bitcoin is "digital gold."

比特幣是“數字黃金”。

I have never doubted this viewpoint.

我從來沒有懷疑這個觀點。

However, over the years, the increasing correlation between Bitcoin and the U.S. stock market, along with its diverging trends from gold, has led me to question this perspective.

但是，多年來，比特幣與美國股票市場之間的相關性不斷增加，以及它與黃金的不同趨勢，使我質疑這一觀點。

Because if Bitcoin truly is, as we imagine, "digital gold," then after all these years, with the community expanding so much and holders transitioning from a small group of early enthusiasts to an increasingly mainstream group of institutional investors, its consensus should have strengthened many times over, and people's faith in it should have solidified countless times. Under such reinforcement, it should behave more and more like gold.

因為正如我們想像的那樣，如果比特幣確實是“數字黃金”，那麼在這些年之後，社區的擴大如此之多，並且持有人從一小群早期發燒友過渡到越來越多的機構投資者組成的主流群體，那麼它的共識應該加強了很多次，人們的信仰應該鞏固了無數的數量。在這樣的強化下，它應該越來越像黃金。

But if we carefully reflect on Bitcoin's performance in recent years, we can see that it has not increasingly resembled gold.

但是，如果我們近年來仔細地反思比特幣的性能，我們可以看到它並沒有越來越類似於黃金。

A typical behavior of gold is: when the world becomes more chaotic and people's confidence in fiat currency (especially the U.S. dollar) or the existing financial system weakens, they embrace gold and abandon fiat currency.

黃金的典型行為是：當世界變得更加混亂，人們對法定貨幣（尤其是美元）或現有的金融體系的信心減弱時，他們就會擁抱黃金並放棄法定貨幣。

If we look back at not-so-distant history, we can see this effect of gold more clearly.

如果我們回顧不太遙遠的歷史，我們可以更清楚地看到黃金的這種效果。

Before the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, all the world's fiat currencies were pegged to the dollar, and the dollar was pegged to gold. In the earlier industrial revolution period, the pound and many fiat currencies of developed capitalist countries were directly pegged to gold, known as the gold standard.

在布雷頓森林系統崩潰之前，世界上所有的法定貨幣都掛在美元上，而美元掛在黃金上。在較早的工業革命時期，發達的資本主義國家的英鎊和許多法定貨幣直接與黃金掛鉤，稱為黃金標準。

In those times, all measures of value were ultimately assessed in gold.

在那個時候，所有價值衡量標準最終都以黃金評估。

If the Bretρον Woods system and the gold standard feel too unfamiliar to us, we might consider the historical accounts of the financial situation of the Nationalist government during its last two years on the mainland:

如果布雷特ρον伍茲系統和黃金標準對我們來說太陌生了，我們可能會考慮國民黨在大陸上的財務狀況的歷史記錄：

The rampant issuance of gold yuan notes and silver dollar notes led to a complete loss of credibility for fiat currency, and people only used gold for large transactions. "Huangyu" was the nickname people gave to gold during that time.

金元票據和銀元票據的猖s發行導致菲亞特貨幣的信譽完全喪失，人們只將黃金用於大型交易。 “ Huangyu”是人們在那段時間給黃金的暱稱。

Throughout 5,000 years of human history, gold has played this role for the vast majority of the time. In most periods, whether for nations or individuals, the ultimate measure of wealth has been how much gold one possesses.

在5，000年的人類歷史上，黃金在絕大多數時間內都扮演了這一角色。在大多數時期，無論是國家還是個人，最終的財富衡量是人們擁有多少黃金。

Has Bitcoin's evolution and development achieved this effect, or will we increasingly agree that when people lose confidence in fiat currency and the existing financial system, they will embrace Bitcoin and use Bitcoin as a measure of their wealth?

比特幣的進化和發展是否實現了這一影響，還是我們越來越同意，當人們對菲亞特貨幣和現有金融體系失去信心時，他們將擁抱比特幣並使用比特幣作為衡量其財富的衡量？

We might say so, but what we say often is not as honest as our actual actions.

我們可能會這麼說，但是我們經常說的不像我們的實際行動那樣誠實。

If we hold one Bitcoin, and its market price was $100,000 yesterday, but today it has plummeted to $50,000, if we trust Bitcoin more or measure our wealth in Bitcoin, we should remain calm and indifferent.

如果我們持有一個比特幣，昨天的市場價格為100,000美元，但是今天它已經下降到50,000美元，如果我們更信任比特幣或用比特幣來衡量我們的財富，我們應該保持冷靜和冷漠。

But I believe 95% of holders would likely be lamenting, "If only I had sold yesterday."

但是我相信95％的持有人可能會感嘆，“如果我昨天只賣了。”

This actually reflects a greater trust in the dollar, measuring wealth in dollar terms.

這實際上反映了對美元的更大信任，以美元計量的財富來衡量財富。

Let’s imagine another historical scenario to see what would happen if this scenario occurred with gold:

讓我們想像另一種歷史場景，看看如果黃金發生這種情況會發生什麼：

On a certain day in 1948, in Shanghai, a yellow fish could be exchanged for 1 million gold yuan notes, but today it can only be exchanged for 500,000 gold yuan notes. Would the people of Shanghai be scrambling to exchange their gold yuan notes for yellow fish, or would they be lamenting, "If only I had sold the yellow fish yesterday"?

1948年的某個一天，在上海，一條黃魚可以換成100萬個金元的鈔票，但今天只能將其換成500,000 Gold yuan筆記。上海人民會爭先恐後地將他們的金元票交換為黃魚，還是會感嘆：“如果我昨天只賣黃魚”？

I think the answer is self-evident; who would still dare to trust gold yuan notes?

我認為答案是不言而喻的。誰仍然敢相信金元的筆記？

This comparison helps clarify the distinction between Bitcoin and gold.

這種比較有助於闡明比特幣和黃金之間的區別。

In fact, in the early days of Bitcoin's inception, those idealistic enthusiasts were the ones who believed in Bitcoin more; they were more willing to measure their crypto assets in Bitcoin terms. Conversely, as crypto assets have developed and more mainstream individuals and institutions have entered this ecosystem, an increasing number of holders trust stablecoins more and prefer to measure their crypto assets in dollars (stablecoins).

實際上，在比特幣成立的早期，那些理想主義的愛好者就是那些相信比特幣的愛好者。他們更願意用比特幣衡量加密貨幣資產。相反，隨著加密資產的發展，越來越多的主流個人和機構進入了該生態系統，越來越多的持有人信任穩定穩定人，並且更喜歡以美元（Stablecoins）來衡量其加密貨幣資產。

Of course, we often see some people claim to hold a certain amount of Bitcoin, but in my view, this does not mean they trust Bitcoin more or measure their assets in Bitcoin; rather, they trust the dollar value of Bitcoin after conversion, caring more about how much their Bitcoin is worth in dollars. Here, Bitcoin is similar to real estate as a wealth target.

當然，我們經常看到有些人聲稱擁有一定數量的比特幣，但我認為，這並不意味著他們更多地相信比特幣或在比特幣中衡量其資產。相反，他們相信轉換後比特幣的美元價值，更關心比特幣的價值。在這裡，比特幣類似於房地產作為財富目標。

Gold took 5,000 years to establish its financial and monetary attributes in history and in people's hearts, but Bitcoin does not have such a history.

黃金花了5，000年的時間來建立其歷史和人們心中的財務和貨幣屬性，但比特幣沒有這樣的歷史。

Lacking the trials and tribulations of history, at least for now, it is hard to say that Bitcoin resembles gold.

缺乏歷史的試驗和磨難，至少在目前，很難說比特幣類似於黃金。

There is another viewpoint that considers Bitcoin as a hedge against the real world.

還有另一種觀點將比特幣視為對沖現實世界的對沖。

However, if we carefully review Bitcoin's performance during crises in real life over the years, we find that

但是，如果我們多年來仔細審查現實生活中危機期間比特幣的表現，我們會發現