比特币（BTC）积累趋势接近0，意味着参与者的分配和积累减弱

在过去的几个月里，比特币（BTC）的价格图表出现了一些极端的波动。 2024 年 BTC 创下 7.3 万美元的历史新高，市场青睐度提高

Bitcoin price has seen some extreme volatility on the price charts over the past few months. While 2024 has brought record highs for BTC, to the tune of $73k and greater market favorability since the launch of ETFs, it has also seen higher volatility.

过去几个月，比特币价格在价格图表上出现了一些极端波动。虽然 2024 年 BTC 创下了 7.3 万美元的历史新高，并且自 ETF 推出以来市场青睐度更高，但波动性也更高。

At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $54,239 after an 8.42% decline over the past week. And yet, it is still showing some signs of life with a recent hike in trading volume. In fact, figures for the same surged by sq63.13% to $48.6 billion over the last 24 hours. What does this mean for BTC’s market outlook over the short and long term though? Can Bitcoin fully recover now?

截至撰写本文时，BTC 交易价格为 54,239 美元，过去一周下跌 8.42%。然而，随着最近交易量的增加，它仍然显示出一些活力的迹象。事实上，过去 24 小时内这一数字飙升了 63.13% 至 486 亿美元。这对 BTC 的短期和长期市场前景意味着什么？比特币现在能完全恢复吗？

Well, according to popular crypto analyst Ali Martinez’s suggestion, BTC may be seeing reduced participation. He made this assertion by citing the declining accumulation trend score.

嗯，根据流行的加密货币分析师 Ali Martinez 的建议，BTC 的参与度可能会减少。他以积累趋势分数下降为由做出了这一断言。

Bitcoin accumulation trend score nears 0

比特币积累趋势评分接近0

According to Martinez, the accumulation trend score is nearing 0 right now. This means that market participants are either distributing or not accumulating BTC.

马丁内斯表示，目前累积趋势得分接近于0。这意味着市场参与者要么正在分配，要么不积累比特币。

In context, the accumulation trend score reflects the relative size of entities that are actively accumulating coins on-chain in terms of BTC holdings. A value close to 1 suggests that participants are accumulating coins. A value closer to 0 indicates participants are distributing their holdings.

在上下文中，积累趋势得分反映了积极在链上积累代币的实体在 BTC 持有量方面的相对规模。接近 1 的值表明参与者正在积累代币。接近 0 的值表示参与者正在分配其持有的资产。

Thus, when the accumulation trend score flashes 0, it suggests no buyers from any cohort and implies distribution. Every time BTC hits a low in a bear cycle, it sees a hike in accumulation as investors buy the dip. However, after the bear market cycle persists, a lack of accumulation occurs as they lack confidence in the cycle.

因此，当累积趋势得分闪烁为 0 时，表明任何群组中都没有买家，并且意味着分布。每当比特币在熊市周期中触及低点时，随着投资者逢低买入，其积累量就会增加。但熊市周期持续后，由于对周期缺乏信心，出现了积累不足的情况。

Based on this analysis, the accumulation score is nearing 0 from the end of August to early September 2024. This means greater distribution and weakening accumulation among participants. Such a scenario suggests larger players and long-term holders are not buying – An indication of bearish sentiment.

据此分析，2024年8月底至9月初，积累分数接近0。这意味着参与者之间的分配更大，积累减弱。这种情况表明较大的参与者和长期持有者不会购买——这表明看跌情绪。

This is also a sign of lack of confidence among investors over the near-term rally. These market conditions result in selling pressure, leading to a price decline on the charts.

这也表明投资者对近期反弹缺乏信心。这些市场状况导致抛售压力，导致图表上的价格下跌。

Bitcoin SOPR, exchange netflows hint at bearish scenario

比特币 SOPR、交易所净流量暗示看跌情景

Now, while the metrics highlighted by Martinez provided a detailed outlook of the prevailing market sentiment, the broader market did bear the brunt of its recent recovery.

现在，虽然马丁内斯强调的指标提供了当前市场情绪的详细前景，但大盘确实首当其冲地受到了近期复苏的影响。

For starters, Bitcoin’s large holder SOPR has declined from 2.4 to 1.6 over the past 7 days. This showed that although long-term holders are selling at a profit, the scale of the profit is decreasing. Therefore, traders are selling at a loss as they are becoming less confident in the short-term to medium-term outlook for the asset.

首先，比特币的大持有者 SOPR 在过去 7 天内从 2.4 下降至 1.6。这表明，虽然长期持有者在获利抛售，但获利规模正在缩小。因此，交易者正在亏本出售，因为他们对该资产的中短期前景越来越缺乏信心。

This scenario also seemed to suggest that investors are pessimistic about future price hikes and they are preparing for a further bearish scenario.

这种情况似乎也表明投资者对未来的价格上涨感到悲观，他们正在为进一步的看跌情况做准备。

Additionally, Bitcoin’s exchange netflows have remained relatively positive over the past 7 days. In 7 days, 4 days have seen positive exchange netflows – A sign that more investors are preparing to close their positions. Here, a hike in inflows into exchanges can result in distribution, if it leads to selling.

此外，比特币的交易净流量在过去 7 天中保持相对积极的状态。在 7 天中，有 4 天出现了正的外汇净流量——这表明更多的投资者正准备平仓。在这里，流入交易所的资金增加如果导致抛售，就可能导致分配。

In light of all these factors, it can be predicted that if the selling pressure persists, BTC will risk declining below $50k.

综合以上因素，可以预测，如果抛售压力持续存在，BTC 将面临跌破 5 万美元的风险。