比特幣（BTC）累積趨勢接近0，意味著參與者的分配和累積減弱

在過去的幾個月裡，比特幣（BTC）的價格圖表出現了一些極端的波動。 2024 年 BTC 創下 7.3 萬美元的歷史新高，市場青睞度提高

Bitcoin price has seen some extreme volatility on the price charts over the past few months. While 2024 has brought record highs for BTC, to the tune of $73k and greater market favorability since the launch of ETFs, it has also seen higher volatility.

過去幾個月，比特幣價格在價格圖表上出現了一些極端波動。雖然 2024 年 BTC 創下了 7.3 萬美元的歷史新高，並且自 ETF 推出以來市場青睞度更高，但波動性也更高。

At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $54,239 after an 8.42% decline over the past week. And yet, it is still showing some signs of life with a recent hike in trading volume. In fact, figures for the same surged by sq63.13% to $48.6 billion over the last 24 hours. What does this mean for BTC’s market outlook over the short and long term though? Can Bitcoin fully recover now?

截至撰寫本文時，BTC 交易價格為 54,239 美元，過去一周下跌 8.42%。然而，隨著最近交易量的增加，它仍然顯示出一些活力的跡象。事實上，過去 24 小時內這一數字飆升了 63.13% 至 486 億美元。這對 BTC 的短期和長期市場前景意味著什麼？比特幣現在能完全恢復嗎？

Well, according to popular crypto analyst Ali Martinez’s suggestion, BTC may be seeing reduced participation. He made this assertion by citing the declining accumulation trend score.

嗯，根據流行的加密貨幣分析師 Ali Martinez 的建議，BTC 的參與度可能會減少。他以累積趨勢分數下降為由做出了這一斷言。

Bitcoin accumulation trend score nears 0

比特幣累積趨勢評分接近0

According to Martinez, the accumulation trend score is nearing 0 right now. This means that market participants are either distributing or not accumulating BTC.

馬丁內斯表示，目前累積趨勢分數接近0。這意味著市場參與者要么正在分配，要么不累積比特幣。

In context, the accumulation trend score reflects the relative size of entities that are actively accumulating coins on-chain in terms of BTC holdings. A value close to 1 suggests that participants are accumulating coins. A value closer to 0 indicates participants are distributing their holdings.

在上下文中，累積趨勢得分反映了積極在鏈上累積代幣的實體在 BTC 持有量方面的相對規模。接近 1 的值表示參與者正在累積代幣。接近 0 的值表示參與者正在分配其持有的資產。

Thus, when the accumulation trend score flashes 0, it suggests no buyers from any cohort and implies distribution. Every time BTC hits a low in a bear cycle, it sees a hike in accumulation as investors buy the dip. However, after the bear market cycle persists, a lack of accumulation occurs as they lack confidence in the cycle.

因此，當累積趨勢分數閃爍為 0 時，表示任何群組中都沒有買家，並且表示分佈。每當比特幣在熊市週期中觸及低點時，隨著投資者逢低買入，其累積量就會增加。但熊市週期持續後，由於對週期缺乏信心，出現了累積不足的情況。

Based on this analysis, the accumulation score is nearing 0 from the end of August to early September 2024. This means greater distribution and weakening accumulation among participants. Such a scenario suggests larger players and long-term holders are not buying – An indication of bearish sentiment.

根據此分析，2024年8月底至9月初，累積分數接近0。這種情況表明較大的參與者和長期持有者不會購買——這表明看跌情緒。

This is also a sign of lack of confidence among investors over the near-term rally. These market conditions result in selling pressure, leading to a price decline on the charts.

這也顯示投資者對近期反彈缺乏信心。這些市場狀況導致拋售壓力，導致圖表上的價格下跌。

Bitcoin SOPR, exchange netflows hint at bearish scenario

比特幣 SOPR、交易所淨流量暗示看跌情景

Now, while the metrics highlighted by Martinez provided a detailed outlook of the prevailing market sentiment, the broader market did bear the brunt of its recent recovery.

現在，雖然馬丁內斯強調的指標提供了當前市場情緒的詳細前景，但大盤確實首當其沖地受到了近期復甦的影響。

For starters, Bitcoin’s large holder SOPR has declined from 2.4 to 1.6 over the past 7 days. This showed that although long-term holders are selling at a profit, the scale of the profit is decreasing. Therefore, traders are selling at a loss as they are becoming less confident in the short-term to medium-term outlook for the asset.

首先，比特幣的大持有者 SOPR 在過去 7 天內從 2.4 下降至 1.6。這表明，雖然長期持有者在獲利拋售，但獲利規模正在縮小。因此，交易者正在虧本出售，因為他們對該資產的中短期前景越來越缺乏信心。

This scenario also seemed to suggest that investors are pessimistic about future price hikes and they are preparing for a further bearish scenario.

這種情況似乎也顯示投資人對未來的價格上漲感到悲觀，他們正在為進一步的看跌情況做準備。

Additionally, Bitcoin’s exchange netflows have remained relatively positive over the past 7 days. In 7 days, 4 days have seen positive exchange netflows – A sign that more investors are preparing to close their positions. Here, a hike in inflows into exchanges can result in distribution, if it leads to selling.

此外，比特幣的交易淨流量在過去 7 天中保持相對積極的狀態。在 7 天中，有 4 天出現了正的外匯淨流量——這表明更多的投資者正準備平倉。在這裡，流入交易所的資金增加如果導致拋售，就可能導致分配。

In light of all these factors, it can be predicted that if the selling pressure persists, BTC will risk declining below $50k.

綜合以上因素，可以預測，如果拋售壓力持續存在，BTC 將面臨跌破 5 萬美元的風險。