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这种损失远非轶事,突出了欧洲金融体系内的深漏,因通货膨胀,利率上升和公共债务管理而加剧。
The Bank of France found itself in 2024 facing an unprecedented financial situation with an operating loss of 17.7 billion euros. This loss, far from being anecdotal, is a symptom of deeper vulnerabilities within the European financial system, exacerbated by inflation, rising interest rates, and the management of public debts.
法国银行在2024年面临着空前的财务状况,营业损失为177亿欧元。这种损失远非轶事,是欧洲金融体系内更深脆弱性的症状,这会因通货膨胀,利率上升和公共债务管理而加剧。
The stellar performance of the Paris Stock Exchange in recent years, embodied by the rise of the CAC 40 to record highs, contrasts sharply with the operating loss of 17.7 billion euros declared by the Bank of France for 2024. This divergence highlights the complex financial realities faced by France at the start of 2025.
近年来,巴黎证券交易所的出色表现,由CAC 40的崛起体现,以创纪录高点,与法国银行在2024年宣布的177亿欧元的营业损失形成鲜明对比。这种差异突出了法国在2025年初面临的复杂财务现实。
While the State will be able to count on the net income of the central bank to reduce its own deficit, the operating loss of 17.7 billion euros reported by the Bank of France is a record figure that is sure to spark reactions. This loss is explained by several factors.
尽管该州将能够依靠中央银行的净收入来减少自身的赤字,但法国银行报告的177亿欧元的营业损失肯定会引发反应。这种损失由几个因素解释。
First, the bank’s role in managing government bonds led to significant losses due to the rise in interest rates. These losses are a direct consequence of the European Central Bank's (ECB) actions to combat inflation.
首先,该银行在管理政府债券方面的作用导致了由于利率上升而造成的巨大损失。这些损失是欧洲中央银行(ECB)对抗通货膨胀的直接结果。
Second, the bank's net income was also impacted by the decrease in interest paid by the State on advances used to finance the public deficit. This decrease is linked to the reduction in the public deficit observed since 2023.
其次,该银行的净收入也受到国家支付的利息下降的影响。这种减少与自2023年以来观察到的公共赤字减少有关。
Finally, the stellar performance of the Paris Stock Exchange, which saw the CAC 40 reach record highs in recent years, did not generate significant capital gains for the central bank, despite holding a diversified portfolio of shares. This lack of capital gains is explained by the fact that the bank's stock portfolio is not actively traded and is managed for the long term.
最终,尽管持有多元化的股票组合,但巴黎证券交易所的出色表现近年来达到了CAC 40的创纪录最高点,但并未为中央银行带来巨大的资本收益。缺乏资本收益的原因是,该银行的股票投资组合没有积极交易,并且长期管理。
These elements explain the nature and extent of the loss suffered by the Bank of France. Moreover, they shed further light on the vulnerabilities of the European monetary system in the face of a changing economic context.
这些要素解释了法国银行遭受的损失的性质和程度。此外,他们进一步阐明了面对经济不断变化的欧洲货币体系的脆弱性。
In addition to these direct losses, the situation raises major concerns regarding French public finances.
除了这些直接损失外,情况还引起了法国公共财政的主要关注点。
The net loss of €7.7 billion in 2024 prevents the Banque de France from paying dividends to the State, thereby reducing the resources the State has available for its expenses.
2024年的净亏损为77亿欧元,阻止了法国巴克·德·德(Banque de France)向州支付股息,从而减少了该州可用于支出的资源。
This loss, although mitigated by accumulated reserves, shows a critical trend that began in 2023 with a deficit of €12.4 billion.
尽管累积的储量减轻了这种损失,但显示出一种关键趋势,该趋势始于2023年,赤字为124亿欧元。
The fact that these losses are worsening year on year prompts reflection on the sustainability of this model as well as on the capacity of the Banque de France to maintain such management in such a volatile economic context.
这些损失逐年恶化的事实促使人们对该模型的可持续性以及法国巴克·德·法兰西(Banque de France)在这种动荡的经济环境中维持此类管理的能力这一事实。
However, financial authorities expect a reduction in losses in 2025, suggesting that the situation could stabilize if economic conditions improve. But this will largely depend on the evolution of interest rates and inflation, as well as the response of the ECB to prevent a collapse of national central banks.
但是,金融当局预计2025年的损失会减少,这表明如果经济状况改善,情况可能会稳定。但这在很大程度上取决于利率和通货膨胀的发展,以及欧洲央行对防止国家央行崩溃的反应。
In the long term, such a recurring loss could force the State to reassess its economic priorities, or even lead to adjustments in its budgetary policy.
从长远来看,这种反复出现的损失可能会迫使国家重新评估其经济优先事项,甚至导致其预算政策的调整。
This loss reveals the fragilities of the European economic system and raises questions about the sustainability of current monetary policy. The uncertainty that persists regarding the evolution of interest rates and the impact of these choices on public finances necessitates serious reflection on the future of the welfare state and the management of public finances in France.
这种损失揭示了欧洲经济体系的脆弱性,并提出了有关当前货币政策可持续性的问题。关于利率的发展以及这些选择对公共财政的影响的不确定性,需要对福利国家的未来以及法国公共财政管理的未来进行认真的反思。
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