关键亮点：比特币（BTC）价格的交易价格约为82792美元

发稿时，比特币价格的交易价格约为82,792美元，在过去24小时内下跌2.46％。在更广泛的市场动荡之中，这种下降到来

Key Highlights

关键亮点

* Bitcoin price was trading at around $82,792 at press time, down 2.46% in the previous 24 hours. This dip came amid broader market turbulence following a $1.25 Trillion plunge in the U.S. stock market.

*比特币价格在发稿时的交易价格约为82,792美元，在过去24小时内下跌2.46％。在美国股票市场的12.25万亿美元暴跌之后，这种下降是在更广泛的市场动荡之中。

* According to a 4-year SMA-based model, Bitcoin’s bear market floor is around $45,000, matching previous cycle bottoms.

*根据一个为期4年的SMA模型，比特币的熊市底层约为45,000美元，与先前的循环底部相匹配。

* ETF outflows and short-term technical breakdowns signal caution for Bitcoin’s near-term outlook. Meanwhile, Brazil’s adoption of BTC as a strategic reserve asset reflects long-term optimism.

* ETF流出和短期技术崩溃，对比特币近期前景的信号警告。同时，巴西将BTC作为战略储备资产的采用反映了长期乐观。

Bear Market Bitcoin Price Floor Estimated at $45,000

熊市比特币价格估计为45,000美元

The 4-year Simple Moving Average (SMA) suggests that Bitcoin’s bear market bottom is approximately $45,000. This metric provides a historical perspective on price trends and potential support levels.

4年的简单移动平均线（SMA）表明，比特币的熊市底部约为45,000美元。该指标提供了有关价格趋势和潜在支持水平的历史观点。

In previous market cycles, Bitcoin price has historically hit bottom near its 4-year SMA. This model is based on that. The chart referenced is colored regions that illustrate Bitcoin price movement through different cycle phases.

在以前的市场周期中，比特币价格历史上已经达到了4年SMA的最低点。该模型基于此。引用的图表是彩色区域，可说明通过不同循环阶段的比特币价格移动。

Current BTC market price of over $82,000 remains higher than the estimated bear market bottom of $45,000. This $45,000 level could be an essential long-term support benchmark amidst market dynamics.

当前的BTC市场价格超过82,000美元，仍高于估计的熊市底部45,000美元。在市场动态中，这45,000美元的水平可能是必不可少的长期支持基准。

As the chart also shows, past cycle tops have decreased over time. While Bitcoin price peaked at 10x the 4-year SMA, the last cycle peaked at 6x, and the current one is only 2.5x.

如图所示，随着时间的推移，过去的周期顶部有所减少。尽管比特币价格达到10倍，而4年SMA的峰值，最后一个周期的峰值为6倍，而目前的周期仅为2.5倍。

This is a sign that the token volatility decreases as the market expands. This suggested that BTC is experiencing lower peaks and higher lows, marking a transition to a more mature phase. As a result, extreme price volatility is becoming less pronounced.

这表明随着市场的扩大，令牌波动率会降低。这表明BTC正在经历较低的峰值和较高的低点，这标志着过渡到更成熟的阶段。结果，极端价格波动变得不那么明显。

Short-Term Technicals Show Weak Momentum

短期技术表现出微弱的动力

On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin is below all Ichimoku Cloud indicators (Base Line, Conversion Line, and the Cloud itself). The Lagging Span, another confirmation of the trend direction element, is also breaking downward. This technical setup typically indicates short-term weakness.

在4小时图表上，比特币低于所有Ichimoku云指示器（基线，转换线和云本身）。滞后跨度是趋势方向元素的另一个确认，也正在向下分解。该技术设置通常表示短期弱点。

Additionally, $81,200 is the next possible support per a Fibonacci retracement analysis. If Bitcoin price drops below this level, the pressure will likely continue down the downside. However, if it holds above, a recovery may begin.

此外，每次斐波那契回撤分析是下一个可能的支持，$ 81,200。如果比特币价格下跌以下，则压力可能会继续下降。但是，如果上述成立，则可能会开始恢复。

ETF Inflows Shift from Positive to Negative

ETF流入从正变为负

In recent days, the U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs had mixed flow data. On March 26, the market saw a positive inflow of +1,020 BTC, approximately $89 Million.

最近几天，美国现场比特币ETF具有混合流数据。 3月26日，市场的积极流入+1,020 BTC，约8900万美元。

BlackRock added +46 BTC, about $4 million, while Fidelity led with +1,120 BTC, about $97.10 Million. Other issuers also observed a combined outflow of -140 BTC.

BlackRock增加了+46 BTC，约为400万美元，而Fidelity则以+1,120 BTC的价格领先，约9710万美元。其他发行人还观察到-140 BTC的组合流出。

However, on March 28, the total outflow was -1,070 BTC, which is $93.20 Million. The only recording movement was Fidelity, which contributed to the entire outflow.

但是，在3月28日，总流出为-1,070 BTC，为9320万美元。唯一的录音运动是忠诚，这导致了整个流出。

This back-and-forth flow indicated institutional sentiment was still unclear and is indicative of a more uncertain market.

这种来回流程表明机构情绪仍不清楚，这表明市场不确定。

Brazil Proposes Bitcoin as Strategic Reserve Asset

巴西建议比特币作为战略储备资产

Brazil’s government has announced a significant move to recognize Bitcoin as a key economic asset. This step highlights Bitcoin’s role in ensuring national economic stability. A new bill suggests that 5% of the country’s national reserves should be invested in BTC.

巴西政府宣布了一项重大举措，将比特币视为主要经济资产。这一步骤凸显了比特币在确保国家经济稳定中的作用。一项新法案表明，该国5％的国家储备应投资于BTC。

“This is more than bullish…,” says analyst Crypto Patel. “This is history in the making.” The move comes as the bill is still in the early stages. However, it highlights the growing global interest in crypto as a reserve currency and its impact on Bitcoin price.

分析师加密帕特尔（Crypto Patel）说：“这不仅仅是看好……。” “这是创造历史。”此举是因为账单仍处于早期阶段。但是，它强调了全球对加密货币作为储备货币的兴趣及其对比特币价格的影响。

The move, if passed, would make Brazil one of the first countries to hold BTC at such a large scale. It could also persuade other nations, especially those with inflation or currency instability, to follow suit.

此举，如果通过的话，将使巴西成为最早的BTC如此大规模的国家之一。它还可以说服其他国家，尤其是那些通货膨胀或货币不稳定的国家效仿。

It also affects long-term demand and decreases market supply, supporting price levels over time.

这也会影响长期需求并减少市场供应，随着时间的推移支持价格水平。