關鍵亮點：比特幣（BTC）價格的交易價格約為82792美元

發稿時，比特幣價格的交易價格約為82,792美元，在過去24小時內下跌2.46％。在更廣泛的市場動蕩之中，這種下降到來

Key Highlights

關鍵亮點

* Bitcoin price was trading at around $82,792 at press time, down 2.46% in the previous 24 hours. This dip came amid broader market turbulence following a $1.25 Trillion plunge in the U.S. stock market.

*比特幣價格在發稿時的交易價格約為82,792美元，在過去24小時內下跌2.46％。在美國股票市場的12.25萬億美元暴跌之後，這種下降是在更廣泛的市場動蕩之中。

* According to a 4-year SMA-based model, Bitcoin’s bear market floor is around $45,000, matching previous cycle bottoms.

*根據一個為期4年的SMA模型，比特幣的熊市底層約為45,000美元，與先前的循環底部相匹配。

* ETF outflows and short-term technical breakdowns signal caution for Bitcoin’s near-term outlook. Meanwhile, Brazil’s adoption of BTC as a strategic reserve asset reflects long-term optimism.

* ETF流出和短期技術崩潰，對比特幣近期前景的信號警告。同時，巴西將BTC作為戰略儲備資產的採用反映了長期樂觀。

Bear Market Bitcoin Price Floor Estimated at $45,000

熊市比特幣價格估計為45,000美元

The 4-year Simple Moving Average (SMA) suggests that Bitcoin’s bear market bottom is approximately $45,000. This metric provides a historical perspective on price trends and potential support levels.

4年的簡單移動平均線（SMA）表明，比特幣的熊市底部約為45,000美元。該指標提供了有關價格趨勢和潛在支持水平的歷史觀點。

In previous market cycles, Bitcoin price has historically hit bottom near its 4-year SMA. This model is based on that. The chart referenced is colored regions that illustrate Bitcoin price movement through different cycle phases.

在以前的市場週期中，比特幣價格歷史上已經達到了4年SMA的最低點。該模型基於此。引用的圖表是彩色區域，可說明通過不同循環階段的比特幣價格移動。

Current BTC market price of over $82,000 remains higher than the estimated bear market bottom of $45,000. This $45,000 level could be an essential long-term support benchmark amidst market dynamics.

當前的BTC市場價格超過82,000美元，仍高於估計的熊市底部45,000美元。在市場動態中，這45,000美元的水平可能是必不可少的長期支持基準。

As the chart also shows, past cycle tops have decreased over time. While Bitcoin price peaked at 10x the 4-year SMA, the last cycle peaked at 6x, and the current one is only 2.5x.

如圖所示，隨著時間的推移，過去的周期頂部有所減少。儘管比特幣價格達到10倍，而4年SMA的峰值，最後一個週期的峰值為6倍，而目前的周期僅為2.5倍。

This is a sign that the token volatility decreases as the market expands. This suggested that BTC is experiencing lower peaks and higher lows, marking a transition to a more mature phase. As a result, extreme price volatility is becoming less pronounced.

這表明隨著市場的擴大，令牌波動率會降低。這表明BTC正在經歷較低的峰值和較高的低點，這標誌著過渡到更成熟的階段。結果，極端價格波動變得不那麼明顯。

Short-Term Technicals Show Weak Momentum

短期技術表現出微弱的動力

On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin is below all Ichimoku Cloud indicators (Base Line, Conversion Line, and the Cloud itself). The Lagging Span, another confirmation of the trend direction element, is also breaking downward. This technical setup typically indicates short-term weakness.

在4小時圖表上，比特幣低於所有Ichimoku雲指示器（基線，轉換線和雲本身）。滯後跨度是趨勢方向元素的另一個確認，也正在向下分解。該技術設置通常表示短期弱點。

Additionally, $81,200 is the next possible support per a Fibonacci retracement analysis. If Bitcoin price drops below this level, the pressure will likely continue down the downside. However, if it holds above, a recovery may begin.

此外，每次斐波那契回撤分析是下一個可能的支持，$ 81,200。如果比特幣價格下跌以下，則壓力可能會繼續下降。但是，如果上述成立，則可能會開始恢復。

ETF Inflows Shift from Positive to Negative

ETF流入從正變為負

In recent days, the U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs had mixed flow data. On March 26, the market saw a positive inflow of +1,020 BTC, approximately $89 Million.

最近幾天，美國現場比特幣ETF具有混合流數據。 3月26日，市場的積極流入+1,020 BTC，約8900萬美元。

BlackRock added +46 BTC, about $4 million, while Fidelity led with +1,120 BTC, about $97.10 Million. Other issuers also observed a combined outflow of -140 BTC.

BlackRock增加了+46 BTC，約為400萬美元，而Fidelity則以+1,120 BTC的價格領先，約9710萬美元。其他發行人還觀察到-140 BTC的組合流出。

However, on March 28, the total outflow was -1,070 BTC, which is $93.20 Million. The only recording movement was Fidelity, which contributed to the entire outflow.

但是，在3月28日，總流出為-1,070 BTC，為9320萬美元。唯一的錄音運動是忠誠，這導致了整個流出。

This back-and-forth flow indicated institutional sentiment was still unclear and is indicative of a more uncertain market.

這種來回流程表明機構情緒仍不清楚，這表明市場不確定。

Brazil Proposes Bitcoin as Strategic Reserve Asset

巴西建議比特幣作為戰略儲備資產

Brazil’s government has announced a significant move to recognize Bitcoin as a key economic asset. This step highlights Bitcoin’s role in ensuring national economic stability. A new bill suggests that 5% of the country’s national reserves should be invested in BTC.

巴西政府宣布了一項重大舉措，將比特幣視為主要經濟資產。這一步驟凸顯了比特幣在確保國家經濟穩定中的作用。一項新法案表明，該國5％的國家儲備應投資於BTC。

“This is more than bullish…,” says analyst Crypto Patel. “This is history in the making.” The move comes as the bill is still in the early stages. However, it highlights the growing global interest in crypto as a reserve currency and its impact on Bitcoin price.

分析師加密帕特爾（Crypto Patel）說：“這不僅僅是看好……。” “這是創造歷史。”此舉是因為賬單仍處於早期階段。但是，它強調了全球對加密貨幣作為儲備貨幣的興趣及其對比特幣價格的影響。

The move, if passed, would make Brazil one of the first countries to hold BTC at such a large scale. It could also persuade other nations, especially those with inflation or currency instability, to follow suit.

此舉，如果通過的話，將使巴西成為最早的BTC如此大規模的國家之一。它還可以說服其他國家，尤其是那些通貨膨脹或貨幣不穩定的國家效仿。

It also affects long-term demand and decreases market supply, supporting price levels over time.

這也會影響長期需求並減少市場供應，隨著時間的推移支持價格水平。