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BitMEX 创始人 Arthur Hayes 在其题为“Sugar High”的最新市场分析中列出了 2024 年最后一个季度看好比特币和更广泛的加密货币市场的四个理由。
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BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes has shared his bullish outlook on Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto market in his latest market analysis. He presents four key reasons to be optimistic about Q4.
BitMEX 创始人 Arthur Hayes 在最新的市场分析中分享了他对比特币 (BTC) 和更广泛的加密货币市场的看涨前景。他提出了对第四季度持乐观态度的四个关键理由。
Hayes begins his analysis by comparing the fiscal approaches of major central banks to his skiing diet. He likens quick energy snacks to short-term monetary policy adjustments, particularly the interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank. These cuts, he argues, are like “sugar highs”—they boost asset prices temporarily but must be balanced with more sustainable financial policies, akin to “real food” in his analogy.
海耶斯通过将主要央行的财政方法与他的滑雪饮食进行比较来开始他的分析。他将快速能源零食比作短期货币政策调整,特别是美联储、英国央行和欧洲央行的降息。他认为,这些削减就像“高糖”——它们会暂时推高资产价格,但必须与更可持续的金融政策相平衡,类似于他的类比中的“真正的食物”。
This pivotal monetary policy shift after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s announcement at the Jackson Hole symposium, triggered a positive reaction in the market, aligning with Hayes’s prediction. He suggests that the anticipation of lower rates makes assets priced in fiat currencies with fixed supplies, such as Bitcoin, more attractive, hence boosting their value. He explains, “Investors believe that if money is cheaper, assets priced in fiat dollars of fixed supply should rise. I agree.”
美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔研讨会上宣布这一关键的货币政策转变引发了市场的积极反应,这与海耶斯的预测一致。他认为,利率下降的预期使得以固定供应的法定货币定价的资产(例如比特币)更具吸引力,从而提高了其价值。他解释说:“投资者认为,如果货币更便宜,以固定供应的法定美元定价的资产应该会上涨。我同意。”
However, Hayes cautions about the potential risks of a yen carry trade unwind, which could disrupt the markets. He explains that the anticipated future rate cuts by the Fed, BOE, and ECB could reduce the interest rate differential between these currencies and the yen, posing a risk of destabilizing financial markets.
然而,海耶斯警告日元套利交易放松的潜在风险,这可能会扰乱市场。他解释说,美联储、英国央行和欧洲央行未来降息的预期可能会缩小这些货币与日元之间的利差,从而带来金融市场不稳定的风险。
Hayes argues that unless real economic measures, akin to his “real food” during ski touring, are taken by central banks—specifically expanding their balance sheets and engaging in quantitative easing—there could be negative repercussions for the market. “If the dollar-yen smashes through 140 on the downside in short order, I don’t believe they will hesitate to provide the “real food” that the filthy fiat financial markets require to exist,” he adds.
海耶斯认为,除非各国央行采取真正的经济措施,类似于他在滑雪旅行期间的“真正的食物”,特别是扩大资产负债表并实行量化宽松,否则可能会对市场产生负面影响。 “如果美元兑日元短期内跌破 140,我相信他们会毫不犹豫地提供肮脏的法定金融市场所需的‘真正的食物’,”他补充道。
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To further solidify his argument, Hayes references the US economy’s resilience. He notes that the US has only experienced two quarters of negative real GDP growth since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, which he argues is not indicative of an economy that requires further rate cuts. “Even the most recent estimation of 3Q2024 real GDP is a solid +2.0%. Again, this is not an economy suffering from overly restrictive interest rates,” Hayes argues.
为了进一步证实他的论点,海耶斯提到了美国经济的弹性。他指出,自 COVID-19 大流行爆发以来,美国仅经历了两个季度的实际 GDP 负增长,他认为这并不表明经济需要进一步降息。 “即使是对 2024 年第三季度实际 GDP 的最新估计也稳定增长了 2.0%。再说一遍,这并不是一个遭受利率过度限制的经济体。”海耶斯认为。
4 Reasons To Be Bullish On Bitcoin In Q4
第四季度看好比特币的 4 个理由
This assertion challenges the Fed’s current trajectory towards lowering rates, suggesting that it might be more politically motivated rather than based on economic necessity. In light of this, Hayes presents four key reasons to bullish on Bitcoin and the broader crypto market in Q4.
这一主张对美联储目前的降息轨迹提出了挑战,表明其可能更多地出于政治动机,而不是基于经济必要性。有鉴于此,海耶斯提出了第四季度看好比特币和更广泛的加密货币市场的四个关键理由。
1. Global Central Bank Policies: Hayes highlights the current trend of major central banks, which are cutting rates to stimulate their economies despite ongoing inflation and growth. “Central banks globally, now led by the Fed, are reducing the price of money. The Fed is cutting rates while inflation is above their target, and the US economy continues to grow. The BOE and ECB will likely continue cutting rates at their upcoming meetings,” Hayes writes.
1. 全球央行政策:海耶斯强调了主要央行当前的趋势,尽管通胀和增长仍在持续,但它们仍在降息以刺激经济。 “现在以美联储为首的全球央行正在降低货币价格。美联储在通胀高于目标的情况下降息,而美国经济继续增长。英国央行和欧洲央行可能会在即将举行的会议上继续降息,”海耶斯写道。
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2. Increased Dollar Liquidity: The US Treasury, under Secretary Janet Yellen, is set to inject significant liquidity into the financial markets through the issuance of $271 billion in Treasury bills and an additional $30 billion in buybacks. This increase in dollar liquidity, totaling around $301 billion by year-end, is expected to keep financial markets buoyant and could lead to increased flows into Bitcoin and crypto as investors seek higher returns.
2.增加美元流动性:美国财政部在国务卿珍妮特·耶伦的领导下,将通过发行2710亿美元的国库券和另外300亿美元的回购,向金融市场注入大量流动性。到年底,美元流动性的增加预计将达到约 3010 亿美元,预计将使金融市场保持活跃,并可能导致随着投资者寻求更高回报,流入比特币和加密货币的资金增加。
3. Strategic Treasury General Account Usage: Approximately $740 billion remains in the US Treasury General Account (TGA), which Hayes suggests will be strategically deployed to support market conditions favorable for the current administration. This substantial financial maneuvering capability could further enhance market liquidity, indirectly benefiting assets like Bitcoin that thrive in environments of high liquidity.
3. 战略性财政部普通账户用途:美国财政部普通账户(TGA)中剩余约 7,400 亿美元,海耶斯建议将其战略性部署,以支持有利于现任政府的市场条件。这种巨大的金融操纵能力可以进一步增强市场流动性,间接有利于比特币等在高流动性环境中蓬勃发展的资产。
4. Bank Of Japan’s Cautious Approach To Interest Rates: The BOJ’s recent apprehensive stance towards raising interest rates, particularly after observing the impact of a minor rate hike on July 31, 2024, signals a cautious approach that will consider market reactions closely. This cautiousness, intended to avoid destabilizing markets, suggests a global environment where central banks might prioritize market stability over tightening, which again bodes well for Bitcoin and crypto.
4. 日本央行对利率采取谨慎态度:日本央行近期对加息持谨慎态度,特别是在观察到 2024 年 7 月 31 日小幅加息的影响之后,这表明日本央行将采取谨慎态度,密切考虑市场反应。这种谨慎的态度是为了避免破坏市场稳定,这表明全球环境中央行可能会优先考虑市场稳定而不是紧缩,这对比特币和加密货币来说又是个好兆头。
Hayes concludes that the combination of these factors creates a fertile ground for Bitcoin’s growth. As central banks globally lean towards policies that increase liquidity and reduce the attractiveness of holding fiat currencies, Bitcoin stands out as a finite supply asset that could potentially skyrocket in value.
海耶斯的结论是,这些因素的结合为比特币的增长创造了肥沃的土壤。随着全球央行倾向于增加流动性并降低持有法定货币吸引力的政策,比特币作为一种供应有限的资产脱颖而出,其价值可能会飙升。
“Some fear that the Fed cutting rates is a leading indicator of a US and, by extension, developed market recession. That might be true, but […] they will ramp up
“一些人担心美联储降息是美国乃至发达市场衰退的先行指标。这可能是真的,但是[…]他们会加速
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