|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BitMEX 創辦人 Arthur Hayes 在其題為「Sugar High」的最新市場分析中列出了 2024 年最後一個季度看好比特幣和更廣泛的加密貨幣市場的四個理由。
CryptoSlate Top Stories
CryptoSlate 熱門故事
BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes has shared his bullish outlook on Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto market in his latest market analysis. He presents four key reasons to be optimistic about Q4.
BitMEX 創辦人 Arthur Hayes 在最新的市場分析中分享了他對比特幣 (BTC) 和更廣泛的加密貨幣市場的看漲前景。他提出了對第四季持樂觀態度的四個關鍵理由。
Hayes begins his analysis by comparing the fiscal approaches of major central banks to his skiing diet. He likens quick energy snacks to short-term monetary policy adjustments, particularly the interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank. These cuts, he argues, are like “sugar highs”—they boost asset prices temporarily but must be balanced with more sustainable financial policies, akin to “real food” in his analogy.
海耶斯透過將主要央行的財政方法與他的滑雪飲食進行比較來開始他的分析。他將快速能源零食比喻為短期貨幣政策調整,特別是聯準會、英國央行和歐洲央行的降息。他認為,這些削減就像「高糖」——它們會暫時推高資產價格,但必須與更可持續的金融政策相平衡,類似於他的類比中的「真正的食物」。
This pivotal monetary policy shift after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s announcement at the Jackson Hole symposium, triggered a positive reaction in the market, aligning with Hayes’s prediction. He suggests that the anticipation of lower rates makes assets priced in fiat currencies with fixed supplies, such as Bitcoin, more attractive, hence boosting their value. He explains, “Investors believe that if money is cheaper, assets priced in fiat dollars of fixed supply should rise. I agree.”
聯準會主席鮑威爾在傑克遜霍爾研討會上宣布這一關鍵的貨幣政策轉變引發了市場的積極反應,這與海耶斯的預測一致。他認為,利率下降的預期使得以固定供應的法定貨幣定價的資產(例如比特幣)更具吸引力,從而提高了其價值。他解釋說:「投資者認為,如果貨幣更便宜,以固定供應的法定美元定價的資產應該會上漲。我同意。
However, Hayes cautions about the potential risks of a yen carry trade unwind, which could disrupt the markets. He explains that the anticipated future rate cuts by the Fed, BOE, and ECB could reduce the interest rate differential between these currencies and the yen, posing a risk of destabilizing financial markets.
然而,海耶斯警告日圓套利交易放鬆的潛在風險,這可能會擾亂市場。他解釋說,聯準會、英國央行和歐洲央行未來降息的預期可能會縮小這些貨幣與日圓之間的利差,從而帶來金融市場不穩定的風險。
Hayes argues that unless real economic measures, akin to his “real food” during ski touring, are taken by central banks—specifically expanding their balance sheets and engaging in quantitative easing—there could be negative repercussions for the market. “If the dollar-yen smashes through 140 on the downside in short order, I don’t believe they will hesitate to provide the “real food” that the filthy fiat financial markets require to exist,” he adds.
海耶斯認為,除非各國央行採取真正的經濟措施,類似於他在滑雪旅行期間的“真正的食物”,特別是擴大資產負債表並實行量化寬鬆,否則可能會對市場產生負面影響。 “如果美元兌日圓短期內跌破 140,我相信他們會毫不猶豫地提供骯髒的法定金融市場所需的‘真正的食物’,”他補充道。
Related Reading
相關閱讀
Bitcoin Plummets To $59,000, On-Chain Data Reveals Why
比特幣暴跌至 59,000 美元,鏈上數據揭示原因
To further solidify his argument, Hayes references the US economy’s resilience. He notes that the US has only experienced two quarters of negative real GDP growth since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, which he argues is not indicative of an economy that requires further rate cuts. “Even the most recent estimation of 3Q2024 real GDP is a solid +2.0%. Again, this is not an economy suffering from overly restrictive interest rates,” Hayes argues.
為了進一步鞏固他的論點,海耶斯提到了美國經濟的彈性。他指出,自 COVID-19 大流行爆發以來,美國僅經歷了兩個季度的實際 GDP 負增長,他認為這並不表明經濟需要進一步降息。 「即使是 2024 年第三季實際 GDP 的最新估計也穩定成長了 2.0%。再說一遍,這並不是一個遭受利率過度限制的經濟體。
4 Reasons To Be Bullish On Bitcoin In Q4
第四季看好比特幣的 4 個理由
This assertion challenges the Fed’s current trajectory towards lowering rates, suggesting that it might be more politically motivated rather than based on economic necessity. In light of this, Hayes presents four key reasons to bullish on Bitcoin and the broader crypto market in Q4.
這項主張對聯準會目前的降息軌跡提出了挑戰,表明其可能更多地出於政治動機,而不是基於經濟必要性。有鑑於此,海耶斯提出了第四季看好比特幣和更廣泛的加密貨幣市場的四個關鍵理由。
1. Global Central Bank Policies: Hayes highlights the current trend of major central banks, which are cutting rates to stimulate their economies despite ongoing inflation and growth. “Central banks globally, now led by the Fed, are reducing the price of money. The Fed is cutting rates while inflation is above their target, and the US economy continues to grow. The BOE and ECB will likely continue cutting rates at their upcoming meetings,” Hayes writes.
1. 全球央行政策:海耶斯強調了主要央行當前的趨勢,儘管通膨和成長仍在持續,但它們仍在降息以刺激經濟。 「現在以聯準會為首的全球央行正在降低貨幣價格。聯準會在通膨高於目標的情況下降息,美國經濟持續成長。英國央行和歐洲央行可能會在即將舉行的會議上繼續降息,」海耶斯寫道。
Related Reading
相關閱讀
Buying Bitcoin Now Is Like Getting It Below $10,000 In 2019: Experts
專家:現在買比特幣就像 2019 年比特幣跌破 1 萬美元一樣
2. Increased Dollar Liquidity: The US Treasury, under Secretary Janet Yellen, is set to inject significant liquidity into the financial markets through the issuance of $271 billion in Treasury bills and an additional $30 billion in buybacks. This increase in dollar liquidity, totaling around $301 billion by year-end, is expected to keep financial markets buoyant and could lead to increased flows into Bitcoin and crypto as investors seek higher returns.
2.增加美元流動性:美國財政部在國務卿珍妮特·耶倫的領導下,將透過發行2,710億美元的國庫券和另外300億美元的回購,向金融市場注入大量流動性。到年底,美元流動性的增加預計將達到約 3,010 億美元,預計將使金融市場保持活躍,並可能導致隨著投資者尋求更高回報,流入比特幣和加密貨幣的資金增加。
3. Strategic Treasury General Account Usage: Approximately $740 billion remains in the US Treasury General Account (TGA), which Hayes suggests will be strategically deployed to support market conditions favorable for the current administration. This substantial financial maneuvering capability could further enhance market liquidity, indirectly benefiting assets like Bitcoin that thrive in environments of high liquidity.
3. 戰略性財政部普通帳戶用途:美國財政部普通帳戶(TGA)中剩餘約 7,400 億美元,海耶斯建議將其戰略性部署,以支持有利於現任政府的市場條件。這種龐大的金融操縱能力可以進一步增強市場流動性,間接有利於比特幣等在高流動性環境中蓬勃發展的資產。
4. Bank Of Japan’s Cautious Approach To Interest Rates: The BOJ’s recent apprehensive stance towards raising interest rates, particularly after observing the impact of a minor rate hike on July 31, 2024, signals a cautious approach that will consider market reactions closely. This cautiousness, intended to avoid destabilizing markets, suggests a global environment where central banks might prioritize market stability over tightening, which again bodes well for Bitcoin and crypto.
4. 日本央行對利率採取謹慎態度:日本央行近期對升息持謹慎態度,特別是在觀察到2024 年7 月31 日小幅加息的影響之後,這表明日本央行將採取謹慎態度,密切考慮市場反應。這種謹慎的態度是為了避免破壞市場穩定,這表明全球環境中央行可能會優先考慮市場穩定而不是緊縮,這對比特幣和加密貨幣來說又是個好兆頭。
Hayes concludes that the combination of these factors creates a fertile ground for Bitcoin’s growth. As central banks globally lean towards policies that increase liquidity and reduce the attractiveness of holding fiat currencies, Bitcoin stands out as a finite supply asset that could potentially skyrocket in value.
海耶斯的結論是,這些因素的結合為比特幣的增長創造了肥沃的土壤。隨著全球央行傾向於增加流動性並降低持有法定貨幣吸引力的政策,比特幣作為供應有限的資產脫穎而出,其價值可能會飆升。
“Some fear that the Fed cutting rates is a leading indicator of a US and, by extension, developed market recession. That might be true, but […] they will ramp up
「有些人擔心聯準會降息是美國乃至已開發市場衰退的先行指標。這可能是真的,但是[…]他們會加速
免責聲明:info@kdj.com
所提供的資訊並非交易建議。 kDJ.com對任何基於本文提供的資訊進行的投資不承擔任何責任。加密貨幣波動性較大,建議您充分研究後謹慎投資!
如果您認為本網站使用的內容侵犯了您的版權,請立即聯絡我們(info@kdj.com),我們將及時刪除。
-
- 5 種新的加密貨幣可以讓你的錢增值 10 倍或 100 倍
- 2024-09-25 00:45:01
- 加密貨幣交易者總是在尋找新的機會,讓自己的資金增加 10 倍和 100 倍。今天,我們將關注 Pepe、Ripple、BNB、FET 和 Cutoshi 這五種代幣,看看哪一種最有可能獲得巨額收益。
-
- 比特幣 (BTC) 週一飆升至 64,000 美元以上,升至 64,400 美元高位,然後回落至當前水平
- 2024-09-25 00:25:01
-
- Dogecoin (DOGE) vs GoodEgg (GEGG):哪種 Meme 幣在 2024 年會表現較好?
- 2024-09-25 00:25:01
- 多年來,狗狗幣 (DOGE) 一直是迷因幣之王,以其俏皮的柴犬吉祥物和
-
- 開放藝術 (TONX) – 創新與表達自由相遇的夜晚
- 2024-09-25 00:25:01
- Open Art 由 Blum、TONX 和 TON Society 在 Token2049 期間主辦,是一場讓與會者沉浸在創新與表達自由相遇的夜晚的活動。
-
- Lunex (LNEX) 網路:革命性的 DeFi 協議,將所有孤立的區塊鏈連接到一個非託管交易所
- 2024-09-25 00:15:02
- 加密貨幣市場有幾個 DeFi 交易所,例如 Uniswap 和 PancakeSwap,但這些交易所都不允許用戶跨不同的區塊鏈交換加密貨幣。
-
- 聯準會降息後 SUI 和 AVAX 飆升:下一步是什麼?
- 2024-09-25 00:15:02
- 最近的聯邦降息被許多人視為壞消息,但對於 Sui (SUI) 和 Avalanche (AVAX) 等加密貨幣來說實際上是因禍得福。
-
- Ripple (XRP) 價格預測:XRP 能否很快帶來爆炸性的價格上漲?
- 2024-09-25 00:15:02
- 仔細觀察加密貨幣市場就會發現,許多數位資產在為今年最後一個季度做準備時取得了巨大的收益。
-
- ALEO 空投已上線 — 索取您的免費代幣!
- 2024-09-25 00:15:02
- 領取您的區塊鏈 ALEO 代幣非常簡單!只需遵循這些快速步驟即可立即開始使用您的代幣。
-
- 馬龍林 (Malone Lam) 正在流行,這次是作為一個熱門模因,已成為去中心化交易所的頂級交易對之一
- 2024-09-25 00:15:02
- 鏈上數據顯示,Raydium DEX 上的 Malone/Solana(SOL)交易對 24 小時內暴漲超過 1000%。