AI Memecoin Omegacycle

截至 2024 年第一季度，排名前 10 的“AI Tech”代币的总流通市值为 309 亿美元。另一方面，排名前 10 的 AI memecoin 可能吸引了更多关注，但总市值仅为 25.4 亿美元。

Q1 2024 saw the top 10 “AI Tech” tokens reach a combined circulating market cap of $30.9 billion, while the top 10 AI memecoins garnered more attention but settled at a combined market cap of $2.54 billion.

2024 年第一季度，十大“AI Tech”代币的总流通市值达到 309 亿美元，而十大 AI memecoin 吸引了更多关注，但总市值达到 25.4 亿美元。

I believe the emergence of GOAT and terminal of truths opens up a new category of AI that could easily grow 100x from now. This is a great opportunity, just like getting in early in the DeFi Summer of 2020.

我相信 GOAT 和真理终结的出现开辟了一个新的人工智能类别，从现在起它可以轻松增长 100 倍。这是一个很好的机会，就像提前进入 2020 年 DeFi 夏季一样。

Market Opportunities

市场机会

Memecoin Supercycle + AI Supercycle = AI Memecoin Omegacycle

Memecoin 超级周期 + AI 超级周期 = AI Memecoin Omegacycle

Following NVDA’s crazy rally in Q1 2024, many AI tokens are going parabolic despite questionable fundamentals and token economics. We are seeing valuations of over $30 billion for the top 10 “AI Tech Tokens” and we are not even counting FDV and smaller market cap tokens. I believe this is a “testing the waters” for the Crypto x AI space and we will see a much bigger rally in 2025.

继 NVDA 在 2024 年第一季度疯狂上涨之后，尽管基本面和代币经济学存在问题，许多 AI 代币仍呈抛物线走势。我们看到前 10 名“AI 科技代币”的估值超过 300 亿美元，我们甚至没有计算 FDV 和市值较小的代币。我相信这是 Crypto x AI 领域的一次“试水”，我们将在 2025 年看到更大的反弹。

However, I believe that the vast majority of outperformance will be in the AI memecoin category. The total market cap of AI memecoin is equivalent to that of ETHEREUM CLASSIC. AI memecoin will slowly siphon off the capital of AI Tech coins, static meme coins, and VC coins.

然而，我相信绝大多数表现出色的将出现在人工智能模因币类别中。 AI memecoin 的总市值与 ETHEREUM CLASSIC 相当。 AI memecoin 将慢慢吸走 AI Tech 币、静态 meme 币和 VC 币的资本。

DeFi SUMMER Moment

DeFi 夏季时刻

Some have likened GOAT’s journey from $0 to $1 billion to the “YFI moment” for this new industry. One of the catalysts for DeFi SUMMER 2020 was the emergence of YFI, which “Fair Launched” in July and reached a market cap of $1 billion within 2 months. This activated a large amount of on-chain capital to enter DeFi tokens because it allowed the industry to verify that a fair-launched DeFi token could start from $0 and reach $1 billion.

有些人将 GOAT 从 0 美元到 10 亿美元的历程比作这个新行业的“YFI 时刻”。 YFI 的出现是 DeFi SUMMER 2020 的催化剂之一，它于 7 月“Fair Launch”，并在 2 个月内达到 10 亿美元的市值。这激活了大量链上资金进入 DeFi 代币，因为它让业界验证了一个公平发行的 DeFi 代币可以从 0 美元开始，达到 10 亿美元。

DeFi was a hot area in the last cycle because it was new, attractive, and gave people the ability to dream. With interest rates at 0%, there were rumors that DeFi would siphon capital from TradFi and become the future of finance. This led to a speculative frenzy on the chain, helping DeFi applications gain TVL and users to test the ecosystem. When YFI launched, the total DeFi market cap was about $5 billion. It peaked at about $170 billion at the top of the market, an increase of 34 times. If GOAT is similar to YFI, then we are still in the very early stages as the total market cap of AI memecoins is less than $5 billion.

上个周期，DeFi 是一个热门领域，因为它新颖、有吸引力，并且赋予人们梦想的能力。在利率为 0% 的情况下，有传言称 DeFi 将从 TradFi 中吸走资金，成为金融的未来。这引发了链上投机狂潮，帮助 DeFi 应用获得 TVL 和用户测试生态系统。 YFI 推出时，DeFi 总市值约为 50 亿美元。最高时约为1700亿美元，增长了34倍。如果 GOAT 与 YFI 类似，那么我们仍处于早期阶段，因为 AI memecoin 的总市值还不到 50 亿美元。

The DeFi cycle combines catalysts/factors internal to crypto (liquidity mining, Ponzi yield farming, speculation) and catalysts/factors external to crypto (interest rates drop to zero → capital enters crypto seeking yield), and bubbles form. AI Memecoin Omegacycle is no exception.

DeFi 周期结合了加密货币内部的催化剂/因素（流动性挖矿、庞氏收益耕作、投机）和加密货币外部的催化剂/因素（利率降至零→资本进入加密货币寻求收益），并形成泡沫。 AI Memecoin Omegacycle 也不例外。

Reflexivity in the new paradigm

新范式中的反身性

Reflexivity theory states that investors make decisions not based on reality, but on their perception of reality. These perceptions trigger actions that have an impact on reality or fundamentals, which in turn affects investor perceptions, which in turn affects prices.

反身性理论指出，投资者做出决策不是基于现实，而是基于他们对现实的看法。这些看法会引发对现实或基本面产生影响的行动，进而影响投资者的看法，进而影响价格。

Price is the total market cap of the AI memecoin space, fundamentals based on attention and how big the "dream" is. These are not "pure memecoins" in my opinion. They are closer to the "tokenized AGI" launched by all fair on pumpfun in my opinion. If VC wants to sell heavily, these tokens will be issued at a FDV of $1 billion with a 10% float. But these AI memecoins start at $0, and anyone has the opportunity to get in early.

价格是人工智能模因币空间的总市值，基本面基于关注度和“梦想”有多大。在我看来，这些不是“纯粹的模因币”。我认为它们更接近all fair在pumpfun上推出的“代币化AGI”。如果 VC 想要大量出售，这些代币将以 10 亿美元的 FDV 发行，浮动利率为 10%。但这些 AI memecoin 起价为 0 美元，任何人都有机会提前参与。

In my opinion, reflexivity works as follows:

在我看来，反身性的作用如下：

It’s really important to note that all of these tokens started out as pumpfun. It fits with the current zeitgeist, the Memecoin/AI supercycle, and anti-VC sentiment. Elon Musk expects AGI to be achieved in 2025–26, so if you believe in 4-year cycles, the hype peak could coincide with the top of cryptocurrencies in Q4 2025.

值得注意的是，所有这些代币都是从 Pumpfun 开始的。它符合当前的时代精神、Memecoin/AI 超级周期和反风险投资情绪。 Elon Musk 预计 AGI 将在 2025-26 年实现，因此，如果您相信 4 年周期，那么炒作高峰可能会与 2025 年第四季度加密货币的顶峰同时出现。

My Positioning

我的定位

Last cycle, the total DeFi market cap reached $170 billion. If the industry reaches these valuations, it would mean about 40x growth from now. But since the total cryptocurrency market cap is much higher, we can easily surpass these levels. The key is to have confidence, be patient, and adjust the portfolio accordingly, because rotation and volatility will be intense.

上一周期，DeFi 总市值达到 1700 亿美元。如果该行业达到这些估值，则意味着从现在起将增长约 40 倍。但由于加密货币总市值要高得多，我们可以轻松超越这些水平。关键是要有信心、要有耐心，并相应地调整投资组合，因为轮动和波动会很剧烈。