AI Memecoin Omegacycle

截至2024 年第一季度，排名前10 的「AI Tech」代幣的總流通市值為309 億美元。美元。

Q1 2024 saw the top 10 “AI Tech” tokens reach a combined circulating market cap of $30.9 billion, while the top 10 AI memecoins garnered more attention but settled at a combined market cap of $2.54 billion.

2024 年第一季度，十大「人工智慧科技」代幣的總流通市值達到 309 億美元，而十大人工智慧迷因幣吸引了更多關注，但總市值達到 25.4 億美元。

I believe the emergence of GOAT and terminal of truths opens up a new category of AI that could easily grow 100x from now. This is a great opportunity, just like getting in early in the DeFi Summer of 2020.

我相信 GOAT 和真理終結的出現開闢了一個新的人工智慧類別，從現在起它可以輕鬆成長 100 倍。這是一個很好的機會，就像提前進入 2020 年 DeFi 夏季一樣。

Market Opportunities

市場機會

Memecoin Supercycle + AI Supercycle = AI Memecoin Omegacycle

Memecoin 超級週期 + AI 超級週期 = AI Memecoin Omegacycle

Following NVDA’s crazy rally in Q1 2024, many AI tokens are going parabolic despite questionable fundamentals and token economics. We are seeing valuations of over $30 billion for the top 10 “AI Tech Tokens” and we are not even counting FDV and smaller market cap tokens. I believe this is a “testing the waters” for the Crypto x AI space and we will see a much bigger rally in 2025.

繼 NVDA 在 2024 年第一季瘋狂上漲之後，儘管基本面和代幣經濟學存在問題，許多 AI 代幣仍呈現拋物線走勢。我們看到前 10 名「AI 科技代幣」的估值超過 300 億美元，我們甚至沒有計算 FDV 和市值較小的代幣。我相信這是 Crypto x AI 領域的一次“試水”，我們將在 2025 年看到更大的反彈。

However, I believe that the vast majority of outperformance will be in the AI memecoin category. The total market cap of AI memecoin is equivalent to that of ETHEREUM CLASSIC. AI memecoin will slowly siphon off the capital of AI Tech coins, static meme coins, and VC coins.

然而，我相信絕大多數表現出色的將出現在人工智慧迷因幣類別中。 AI memecoin 的總市值與 ETHEREUM CLASSIC 相當。 AI memecoin 將慢慢吸走 AI Tech 幣、靜態 meme 幣和 VC 幣的資本。

DeFi SUMMER Moment

DeFi 夏季時刻

Some have likened GOAT’s journey from $0 to $1 billion to the “YFI moment” for this new industry. One of the catalysts for DeFi SUMMER 2020 was the emergence of YFI, which “Fair Launched” in July and reached a market cap of $1 billion within 2 months. This activated a large amount of on-chain capital to enter DeFi tokens because it allowed the industry to verify that a fair-launched DeFi token could start from $0 and reach $1 billion.

有些人將 GOAT 從 0 美元到 10 億美元的歷程比作這個新產業的「YFI 時刻」。 DeFi SUMMER 2020 的催化劑之一是 YFI 的出現，該項目於 7 月“Fair Launch”，並在 2 個月內達到 10 億美元的市值。這啟動了大量鏈上資金進入 DeFi 代幣，因為它讓業界驗證了一個公平發行的 DeFi 代幣可以從 0 美元開始，達到 10 億美元。

DeFi was a hot area in the last cycle because it was new, attractive, and gave people the ability to dream. With interest rates at 0%, there were rumors that DeFi would siphon capital from TradFi and become the future of finance. This led to a speculative frenzy on the chain, helping DeFi applications gain TVL and users to test the ecosystem. When YFI launched, the total DeFi market cap was about $5 billion. It peaked at about $170 billion at the top of the market, an increase of 34 times. If GOAT is similar to YFI, then we are still in the very early stages as the total market cap of AI memecoins is less than $5 billion.

上個週期，DeFi 是一個熱門領域，因為它新穎、有吸引力，並賦予人們夢想的能力。在利率為 0% 的情況下，有傳言稱 DeFi 將從 TradFi 中吸走資金，成為金融的未來。這引發了鏈上投機狂潮，幫助 DeFi 應用程式獲得 TVL 和用戶測試生態系統。 YFI 推出時，DeFi 總市值約 50 億美元。最高時約1700億美元，成長了34倍。如果 GOAT 與 YFI 類似，那麼我們仍處於早期階段，因為 AI memecoin 的總市值還不到 50 億美元。

The DeFi cycle combines catalysts/factors internal to crypto (liquidity mining, Ponzi yield farming, speculation) and catalysts/factors external to crypto (interest rates drop to zero → capital enters crypto seeking yield), and bubbles form. AI Memecoin Omegacycle is no exception.

DeFi 週期結合了加密貨幣內部的催化劑/因素（流動性挖礦、龐氏收益耕作、投機）和加密貨幣外部的催化劑/因素（利率降至零→資本進入加密貨幣尋求收益），並形成泡沫。 AI Memecoin Omegacycle 也不例外。

Reflexivity in the new paradigm

新範式中的反身性

Reflexivity theory states that investors make decisions not based on reality, but on their perception of reality. These perceptions trigger actions that have an impact on reality or fundamentals, which in turn affects investor perceptions, which in turn affects prices.

反身性理論指出，投資人做出決策不是基於現實，而是基於他們對現實的看法。這些看法會引發對現實或基本面產生影響的行動，進而影響投資人的看法，進而影響價格。

Price is the total market cap of the AI memecoin space, fundamentals based on attention and how big the "dream" is. These are not "pure memecoins" in my opinion. They are closer to the "tokenized AGI" launched by all fair on pumpfun in my opinion. If VC wants to sell heavily, these tokens will be issued at a FDV of $1 billion with a 10% float. But these AI memecoins start at $0, and anyone has the opportunity to get in early.

價格是人工智慧迷因幣空間的總市值，基本面基於關注度和「夢想」有多大。在我看來，這些不是「純粹的迷因幣」。我認為它們更接近all fair在pumpfun上推出的「代幣化AGI」。如果 VC 想要大量出售，這些代幣將以 10 億美元的 FDV 發行，浮動利率為 10%。但這些 AI memecoin 起價為 0 美元，任何人都有機會提前參與。

In my opinion, reflexivity works as follows:

在我看來，反身性的作用如下：

It’s really important to note that all of these tokens started out as pumpfun. It fits with the current zeitgeist, the Memecoin/AI supercycle, and anti-VC sentiment. Elon Musk expects AGI to be achieved in 2025–26, so if you believe in 4-year cycles, the hype peak could coincide with the top of cryptocurrencies in Q4 2025.

值得注意的是，所有這些代幣都是從 Pumpfun 開始的。它符合當前的時代精神、Memecoin/AI 超級週期和反創投情緒。 Elon Musk 預計 AGI 將在 2025-26 年實現，因此，如果您相信 4 年周期，那麼炒作高峰可能會與 2025 年第四季度加密貨幣的頂峰同時出現。

My Positioning

我的定位

Last cycle, the total DeFi market cap reached $170 billion. If the industry reaches these valuations, it would mean about 40x growth from now. But since the total cryptocurrency market cap is much higher, we can easily surpass these levels. The key is to have confidence, be patient, and adjust the portfolio accordingly, because rotation and volatility will be intense.

上一周期，DeFi 總市值達到 1,700 億美元。如果該行業達到這些估值，則意味著從現在起將成長約 40 倍。但由於加密貨幣總市值要高得多，我們可以輕鬆超越這些水準。關鍵是要有信心、要有耐心，並相應地調整投資組合，因為輪動和波動會很劇烈。