人工智能代理的炒作尚未结束

近期，AI代理板块代币普遍回调。根据GMGN数据，Base生态中主流的AI Agent代币

Author: Odaily Planet Daily, Golem

作者：Odaily星球日报、Golem

Recently, the tokens in the AI Agent sector have generally retraced.

近期，AI代理板块代币普遍回调。

According to GMGN data, the mainstream AI Agent tokens in the Base ecosystem, VIRTUAL, have seen a 7-day decline of over 39%, AIXBT over 20%, GAME over 30%, and LUNA over 50%; in the Solana ecosystem, the mainstream AI Agent tokens ai16z have seen a 7-day decline of over 45%, ELIZA over 48%, and swarms and ARC over 38%.

GMGN数据显示，Base生态中主流AI代理代币VIRTUAL连续7天跌幅超39%，AIXBT超20%，GAME超30%，LUNA超50%； Solana 生态中，主流 AI Agent 代币 ai16z 7 天跌幅超过 45%，ELIZA 跌幅超过 48%，Swarms 和 ARC 跌幅超过 38%。

Since GOAT initiated a new model combining AI and Crypto, and with ai16z and Virtuals promoting the narrative of crypto AI Agents, more than three months have passed. Therefore, many opinions in the market suggest that the hype around AI Agents has ended, and those who have not yet liquidated their positions have become the payers of this "feast," with some even comparing this round of AI Agent hype to a "faster-paced inscription craze."

自从 GOAT 发起人工智能与加密货币相结合的新模式，并通过 ai16z 和 Virtuals 推动加密人工智能代理的叙述以来，已经过去了三个多月。因此，市场上不少观点认为，围绕AI Agent的炒作已经结束，那些尚未平仓的人成为了这场“盛宴”的买单者，甚至有人将本轮AI Agent炒作比作“更快”。 -节奏铭文热潮。”

Is the AI Agent hype nearing its end? The answer is not so.

AI Agent 的炒作是否已接近尾声？答案并非如此。

What Stage Have AI Agents Reached?

AI智能体已经发展到什么阶段了？

It is undeniable that in investing, we must respect cycles, entering the market before it peaks and exiting gracefully before the hype fades. Currently, AI Agents are in a deep squat phase before a powerful jump.

不可否认，投资必须尊重周期，在市场见顶之前入场，在炒作消退之前优雅退出。目前，人工智能代理正处于强力跳跃之前的深蹲阶段。

The Impact of CEX on Prices Continues to Diminish

CEX对价格的影响持续减弱

From the perspective of market sentiment and liquidity, people generally view the listing of tokens on "the universe's largest exchange," Binance, as the endpoint for on-chain assets. When Binance lists a popular token from a sector, it signifies a dual peak in market sentiment and liquidity for that sector, and after a period of FOMO, the market will return to calm. However, in this round of AI Agent narratives, the impact of CEX listings on tokens may not be as significant as imagined.

从市场情绪和流动性的角度来看，人们普遍将代币在“全球最大交易所”币安的上市视为链上资产的端点。当币安上线某个行业的热门代币时，意味着该行业的市场情绪和流动性达到双高峰，经过一段时间的“FOMO”之后，市场将回归平静。然而，在这一轮AI Agent的叙述中，CEX上市对代币的影响可能并没有想象中的那么大。

According to public information, Binance has launched perpetual contract trading for ai16z and swarms, and only listed AIXBT for spot trading on January 10. Although the listing of ai16z and swarms contracts initially caused market FUD leading to price drops, both subsequently rebounded; similarly, even after Binance announced the listing of AIXBT for spot trading, the price returned to normal levels after a brief period of FOMO.

公开资料显示，币安已上线ai16z和swarms永续合约交易，并于1月10日才上线AIXBT进行现货交易。虽然ai16z和swarms合约上线初期引起市场FUD导致价格下跌，但随后均出现反弹；同样，即使在币安宣布 AIXBT 上线现货交易后，价格在短暂的 FOMO 期后也恢复到正常水平。

According to Cointelegraph statistics, on January 7, the proportion of spot cryptocurrency trading volume on DEX exceeded 20% for the first time. As more people engage in on-chain trading, the influence of CEX on the prices of on-chain assets will continue to diminish.

据Cointelegraph统计，1月7日，DEX上的现货加密货币交易量占比首次超过20%。随着越来越多的人参与链上交易，CEX对链上资产价格的影响力将不断减弱。

AI Agents Are the Metaverse of 2025

AI 代理是 2025 年的虚拟世界

The world went crazy for the metaverse in 2021, and in 2025, the world will go crazy for AI Agents.

2021 年，世界为虚拟宇宙而疯狂，2025 年，世界将为人工智能代理而疯狂。

The metaverse in 2021 not only thrived in the web3 space but also sparked a wave in web2 internet companies, with the most notable event being social media giant Facebook rebranding to Meta, going all-in on the metaverse. In 2025, Nvidia resembles Meta of that year, attracting attention in the AI Agent wave. Nvidia's founder, Jensen Huang, mentioned in his keynote speech at CES 2025 that "over 30 million developers worldwide will have their own software assistants in the future, or they will fall behind their peers. Moreover, AI Agents are expected to become the next robotics industry, with an industry scale reaching trillions of dollars."

2021年的元宇宙不仅在web3领域蓬勃发展，也引发了web2互联网公司的热潮，其中最引人注目的事件是社交媒体巨头Facebook更名为Meta，全力进军元宇宙。 2025年，Nvidia就像当年的Meta一样，在AI Agent浪潮中引起关注。英伟达创始人黄仁勋在 CES 2025 的主题演讲中提到，“未来全球超过 3000 万开发者将拥有自己的软件助手，否则就会落后于同行。而且，AI Agent 有望成为下一个机器人”产业，产业规模达到万亿美元。”

Web3 has always enjoyed combining with "hot narratives," from major tech industry trends to a squirrel killed in the U.S. The metaverse craze in 2021 gave birth to companies like Decentraland in web3, which, excluding derivative assets, had a peak token market cap exceeding $10 billion. However, neither ai16z nor virtuals have yet reached a market cap of $10 billion.

Web3 一直喜欢与“热点叙事”相结合，从重大科技行业趋势到美国被杀的松鼠。2021 年的元宇宙热潮催生了像 Web3 中的 Decentraland 这样的公司，这些公司（不包括衍生资产）的代币市值峰值超过了100 亿美元。然而，ai16z 和 virtuals 的市值都还没有达到 100 亿美元。

2025 is the year of the AI Agent explosion, and the traditional web2 tech industry's enthusiasm for it has not yet ended; web3 is just getting started.

2025年是AI Agent爆发年，传统web2科技行业对其的热情尚未结束； web3 才刚刚开始。

Are AI Agents a Faster-Paced Version of Inscriptions?

AI 代理是铭文的更快节奏版本吗？

Additionally, there is a viewpoint in the market that understands AI Agents as a faster-paced version of inscriptions. There are indeed some similarities between the two, such as AI Agents being fairly distributed through the pump.fun model, similar to the fair minting of inscriptions; the framework competition among AI Agents resembles the asset issuance protocol competition in the Bitcoin ecosystem, where overall, there are not many significant differences between the frameworks, but there are subtle differences; and the quicker launch of better-narrative assets is akin to the rapid minting of popular inscription assets back in the day.

此外，市场上有一种观点将人工智能代理理解为更快节奏的铭文版本。两者确实有一些相似之处，比如AI Agent通过pump.fun模型公平分配，类似于铭文的公平铸造； AI Agent之间的框架竞争类似于比特币生态中的资产发行协议竞争，总体而言，框架之间没有太多显着差异，但存在细微差别；更快地推出更好的叙事资产类似于当时流行的铭文资产的快速铸造。

However, there are also differences between the two:

然而，两者之间也存在差异：

Frankly speaking, Web3 indeed does not have an unchanging narrative; the AI Agent craze may fade, but at least

坦白说，Web3确实没有一成不变的叙事；人工智能代理热潮可能会消退，但至少