美國在經濟和地緣政治上都佔據了公牛

美國在經濟和地緣政治上都佔據了公牛。很多事情都會改變，比特幣已經成為贏家。

The United States is taking the bull by the horns, both economically and geopolitically. A lot of things are going to change, and bitcoin is already emerging as a winner.

美國在經濟和地緣政治上都佔據了公牛。很多事情都會改變，比特幣已經成為贏家。

Tariffs and Annexation Threats

關稅和吞併威脅

The United States is known for its toughness in business. Donald Trump has just increased tariffs by 25% for Canada and Mexico, and by 20% for China.

美國以其業務韌性而聞名。唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）剛剛將加拿大和墨西哥的關稅提高了25％，中國的關稅增加了20％。

A 25% customs tax on imports from the European Union is also in the works. Together, these four economies produce 61% of U.S. merchandise imports.

從歐盟進口的25％的海關稅也正在製作中。這四個經濟體共同產生了61％的美國商品進口。

Trump jokingly said he could annex Canada to settle the matter. And while Denmark raises the retirement age to 70 “to prepare for the Russians”, D. Trump is eyeing Greenland:

特朗普開玩笑地說，他可以吞併加拿大解決此事。丹麥將退休年齡提高到70個“為俄羅斯人做準備”，而D.特朗普則關注格陵蘭：

It is “the art of the deal” in all its glory. The American president is putting maximum pressure on Nordic countries to gain easier access to their mineral and energy resources.

這是所有榮耀的“交易的藝術”。美國總統正在向北歐國家施加最大的壓力，要求更容易獲得其礦產和能源。

Regarding his Canadian neighbor, the goal is to revive the construction of the Keystone XL pipeline, which was suspended by Joe Biden in 2021. Canada is indeed the fourth largest oil exporter in the world. The country pumps more than 4 million barrels per day, of which 90% is exported to the United States.

關於他的加拿大鄰居，目標是恢復基石XL管道的建設，喬·拜登（Joe Biden）於2021年暫停。加拿大確實是世界第四大石油出口商。該國每天抽超過400萬桶，其中90％出口到美國。

Trump wants to revive this pipeline which will transport an additional million barrels to the American economy. It will also allow the development of North Dakota’s oil industry, one of the last U.S. states still having interesting reserves.

特朗普想復興這條管道，這將向美國經濟帶來另外一百萬桶。這還將允許北達科他州石油行業的發展，這是美國最後一個仍擁有有趣儲量的州之一。

The same story applies to Denmark. The U.S. Vice President JD Vance is convinced that the Greenlanders have “an incredibly rich country”. According to him, the Danes “do not let the Greenlanders develop and explore”.

同樣的故事也適用於丹麥。美國副總統JD Vance堅信，格陵蘭人擁有一個“令人難以置信的富裕國家”。據他說，丹麥人“不要讓格陵蘭人發展和探索”。

Energy Above All

最重要的是能量

In Europe, the rumor is that after having let go of Ukraine, Uncle Sam will soon exit NATO. Or how to scare the gallery to make the printing press work in favor of the defense sector.

在歐洲，有傳言稱，山姆叔叔將很快退出北約。或如何嚇fir庫，以使印刷新聞界有利於國防部門。

Thus, after the hundreds of billions printed for the COVID war, the real arms dealers want their share of the pie. More than 800 billion euros are announced to fill the order books of American and European armament industries. It will be interesting to see to what extent…

因此，在為共同戰爭印刷了數百十億印刷後，真正的武器經銷商希望他們在餡餅中的份額。宣布超過8000億歐元的價格填補美國和歐洲軍械行業的訂單。有趣的是，看看多大程度上……

Yet, Vladimir Putin has repeatedly stated that attacking NATO would be pure madness. Fostering this irrational fear is merely an excuse to buy American bombs, allowing them to reduce their trade deficit at our expense.

然而，弗拉基米爾·普京（Vladimir Putin）反复說，進攻北約將是純粹的瘋狂。培養這種非理性的恐懼只是購買美國炸彈的藉口，使他們能夠以我們為代價減少貿易赤字。

Making bombs and investing in the increasingly distant extraction of energy resources. That is the good old strategy to keep growth in front of debt.

製造炸彈並投資於日益遙遠的能源資源提取。這是將增長保持債務面前的好舊策略。

Growth = Productivity = Machines = Energy

增長=生產力=機器=能源

Not to mention all the necessary atoms. The lithium, cobalt, and nickel from batteries. Neodymium and dysprosium from wind turbine magnets. Copper from power lines, etc.

更不用說所有必要的原子了。電池中的鋰，鈷和鎳。來自風力渦輪機磁鐵的霓虹燈和畸形。電源線的銅，等。

But beware, energy is dwindling, especially oil which is indispensable for long-distance transport. A decline in production would result in less transport and therefore a decrease in the global production of almost everything. The alternative would be to produce more locally, which is nearly impossible given the dispersion of natural resources and the division of labor on a global scale.

但是要當心，能量正在逐漸減少，尤其是石油對於長途運輸是必不可少的。生產的下降將導致運輸較少，因此幾乎所有事物的全球產量下降。另一種選擇是在本地生產更多，這幾乎是不可能的，鑑於自然資源的分散以及在全球範圍內的勞動分工。

This constraint on the queen of energies makes the economy no longer profitable enough to accommodate social spending. Particularly the pension schemes established in a time of energy abundance and low life expectancy.

對能量女王的這種限制使經濟不再足夠盈利，無法適應社會支出。尤其是在能源豐度和預期壽命低的時期建立的養老金計劃。

The Root of Evil

邪惡的根源

Of course, no one tells us what is really happening. Partly because politicians themselves do not understand, but also because it is easier to blame our neighbors. But the heart of the problem lies in energy.

當然，沒有人告訴我們到底發生了什麼。部分原因是政客本身不了解，也是因為責怪我們的鄰居更容易。但是問題的核心在於能量。

Each type of energy has its preferred use. Diesel, fuel oil, and kerosene power trucks, boats, and planes respectively. Without oil, goodbye globalization and its low prices. We will have to adapt, as we have always done.

每種能量都有其首選。柴油，燃油和煤油電源卡車，船隻和飛機。沒有石油，再見全球化及其低價。我們將不得不像一直以來一樣適應。

Let us remember, for instance, that we used to burn oil to produce electricity before the oil price spike in 1971. Home heating was done with fuel oil, and factories sometimes used diesel to power their machines. In response to rising oil prices, we turned to gas, coal, and nuclear power plants. Car manufacturers began making smaller cars and more efficient engines.

讓我們記住，例如，我們曾經在1971年的油價飆升之前燃燒石油來發電。用燃料油進行家用供暖，工廠有時會使用柴油為機器供電。為了響應石油價格上漲，我們轉向天然氣，煤炭和核電廠。汽車製造商開始生產較小的汽車和更高效的發動機。

Today, even cars must switch to electric. Hence the American pressures to secure access to Ukrainian lithium deposits that Elon Musk needs for his Teslas…

今天，即使是汽車也必須轉向電動。因此，美國的壓力是確保埃隆·馬斯克（Elon Musk）需要的特斯拉（Teslas）所需的烏克蘭鋰礦床。

The following graph is enough to convince us that the tensions on global oil supply are real:

以下圖足以說服我們全球石油供應的緊張局勢是真實的：

Although there is still plenty of naphtha in the earth’s crust, it still needs to be extracted at a low enough cost for consumers to afford it!

儘管地殼中仍然有大量的石腦油，但仍需要以低成本的成本提取它，以使消費者負擔得起！

The Inevitable Inflation

不可避免的通貨膨脹

The last thing one can expect from a politician is for them to tell their voters: “We have a shortage problem. The resources are there, but too expensive to extract and transport to provide food, universities, energy, and housing at affordable prices”.

一個政治家可以期望的最後一件事是讓他們告訴選民：“我們有一個短缺問題。資源在那裡，但提取和運輸太昂貴，無法以負擔得起的價格提供食品，大學，能源和住房。”

This is the consequence of energy supply under constraint. The additional purchasing power made available by debt causes inflation rather than an increase in the quantity of finished products and services.

這是限制下能源供應的結果。債務提供的額外購買力會導致通貨膨脹，而不是成品和服務的數量增加。

The first

第一個