美国在经济和地缘政治上都占据了公牛

美国在经济和地缘政治上都占据了公牛。很多事情都会改变，比特币已经成为赢家。

The United States is taking the bull by the horns, both economically and geopolitically. A lot of things are going to change, and bitcoin is already emerging as a winner.

美国在经济和地缘政治上都占据了公牛。很多事情都会改变，比特币已经成为赢家。

Tariffs and Annexation Threats

关税和吞并威胁

The United States is known for its toughness in business. Donald Trump has just increased tariffs by 25% for Canada and Mexico, and by 20% for China.

美国以其业务韧性而闻名。唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）刚刚将加拿大和墨西哥的关税提高了25％，中国的关税增加了20％。

A 25% customs tax on imports from the European Union is also in the works. Together, these four economies produce 61% of U.S. merchandise imports.

从欧盟进口的25％的海关税也正在制作中。这四个经济体共同产生了61％的美国商品进口。

Trump jokingly said he could annex Canada to settle the matter. And while Denmark raises the retirement age to 70 “to prepare for the Russians”, D. Trump is eyeing Greenland:

特朗普开玩笑地说，他可以吞并加拿大解决此事。丹麦将退休年龄提高到70个“为俄罗斯人做准备”，而D.特朗普则关注格陵兰：

It is “the art of the deal” in all its glory. The American president is putting maximum pressure on Nordic countries to gain easier access to their mineral and energy resources.

这是所有荣耀的“交易的艺术”。美国总统正在向北欧国家施加最大的压力，要求更容易获得其矿产和能源。

Regarding his Canadian neighbor, the goal is to revive the construction of the Keystone XL pipeline, which was suspended by Joe Biden in 2021. Canada is indeed the fourth largest oil exporter in the world. The country pumps more than 4 million barrels per day, of which 90% is exported to the United States.

关于他的加拿大邻居，目标是恢复基石XL管道的建设，乔·拜登（Joe Biden）于2021年暂停。加拿大确实是世界第四大石油出口商。该国每天抽超过400万桶，其中90％出口到美国。

Trump wants to revive this pipeline which will transport an additional million barrels to the American economy. It will also allow the development of North Dakota’s oil industry, one of the last U.S. states still having interesting reserves.

特朗普想复兴这条管道，这将向美国经济带来另外一百万桶。这还将允许北达科他州石油行业的发展，这是美国最后一个仍拥有有趣储量的州之一。

The same story applies to Denmark. The U.S. Vice President JD Vance is convinced that the Greenlanders have “an incredibly rich country”. According to him, the Danes “do not let the Greenlanders develop and explore”.

同样的故事也适用于丹麦。美国副总统JD Vance坚信，格陵兰人拥有一个“令人难以置信的富裕国家”。据他说，丹麦人“不要让格陵兰人发展和探索”。

Energy Above All

最重要的是能量

In Europe, the rumor is that after having let go of Ukraine, Uncle Sam will soon exit NATO. Or how to scare the gallery to make the printing press work in favor of the defense sector.

在欧洲，有传言称，山姆叔叔将很快退出北约。或如何吓fir库，以使印刷新闻界有利于国防部门。

Thus, after the hundreds of billions printed for the COVID war, the real arms dealers want their share of the pie. More than 800 billion euros are announced to fill the order books of American and European armament industries. It will be interesting to see to what extent…

因此，在为共同战争印刷了数百十亿印刷后，真正的武器经销商希望他们在馅饼中的份额。宣布超过8000亿欧元的价格填补美国和欧洲军械行业的订单。有趣的是，看看多大程度上……

Yet, Vladimir Putin has repeatedly stated that attacking NATO would be pure madness. Fostering this irrational fear is merely an excuse to buy American bombs, allowing them to reduce their trade deficit at our expense.

然而，弗拉基米尔·普京（Vladimir Putin）反复说，进攻北约将是纯粹的疯狂。培养这种非理性的恐惧只是购买美国炸弹的借口，使他们能够以我们为代价减少贸易赤字。

Making bombs and investing in the increasingly distant extraction of energy resources. That is the good old strategy to keep growth in front of debt.

制造炸弹并投资于日益遥远的能源资源提取。这是将增长保持债务面前的好旧策略。

Growth = Productivity = Machines = Energy

增长=生产力=机器=能源

Not to mention all the necessary atoms. The lithium, cobalt, and nickel from batteries. Neodymium and dysprosium from wind turbine magnets. Copper from power lines, etc.

更不用说所有必要的原子了。电池中的锂，钴和镍。来自风力涡轮机磁铁的霓虹灯和畸形。电源线的铜，等。

But beware, energy is dwindling, especially oil which is indispensable for long-distance transport. A decline in production would result in less transport and therefore a decrease in the global production of almost everything. The alternative would be to produce more locally, which is nearly impossible given the dispersion of natural resources and the division of labor on a global scale.

但是要当心，能量正在逐渐减少，尤其是石油对于长途运输是必不可少的。生产的下降将导致运输较少，因此几乎所有事物的全球产量下降。另一种选择是在本地生产更多，这几乎是不可能的，鉴于自然资源的分散以及在全球范围内的劳动分工。

This constraint on the queen of energies makes the economy no longer profitable enough to accommodate social spending. Particularly the pension schemes established in a time of energy abundance and low life expectancy.

对能量女王的这种限制使经济不再足够盈利，无法适应社会支出。尤其是在能源丰度和预期寿命低的时期建立的养老金计划。

The Root of Evil

邪恶的根源

Of course, no one tells us what is really happening. Partly because politicians themselves do not understand, but also because it is easier to blame our neighbors. But the heart of the problem lies in energy.

当然，没有人告诉我们到底发生了什么。部分原因是政客本身不了解，也是因为责怪我们的邻居更容易。但是问题的核心在于能量。

Each type of energy has its preferred use. Diesel, fuel oil, and kerosene power trucks, boats, and planes respectively. Without oil, goodbye globalization and its low prices. We will have to adapt, as we have always done.

每种能量都有其首选。柴油，燃油和煤油电源卡车，船只和飞机。没有石油，再见全球化及其低价。我们将不得不像一直以来一样适应。

Let us remember, for instance, that we used to burn oil to produce electricity before the oil price spike in 1971. Home heating was done with fuel oil, and factories sometimes used diesel to power their machines. In response to rising oil prices, we turned to gas, coal, and nuclear power plants. Car manufacturers began making smaller cars and more efficient engines.

让我们记住，例如，我们曾经在1971年的油价飙升之前燃烧石油来发电。用燃料油进行家用供暖，工厂有时会使用柴油为机器供电。为了响应石油价格上涨，我们转向天然气，煤炭和核电厂。汽车制造商开始生产较小的汽车和更高效的发动机。

Today, even cars must switch to electric. Hence the American pressures to secure access to Ukrainian lithium deposits that Elon Musk needs for his Teslas…

今天，即使是汽车也必须转向电动。因此，美国的压力是确保埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）需要的特斯拉（Teslas）所需的乌克兰锂矿床。

The following graph is enough to convince us that the tensions on global oil supply are real:

以下图足以说服我们全球石油供应的紧张局势是真实的：

Although there is still plenty of naphtha in the earth’s crust, it still needs to be extracted at a low enough cost for consumers to afford it!

尽管地壳中仍然有大量的石脑油，但仍需要以低成本的成本提取它，以使消费者负担得起！

The Inevitable Inflation

不可避免的通货膨胀

The last thing one can expect from a politician is for them to tell their voters: “We have a shortage problem. The resources are there, but too expensive to extract and transport to provide food, universities, energy, and housing at affordable prices”.

一个政治家可以期望的最后一件事是让他们告诉选民：“我们有一个短缺问题。资源在那里，但提取和运输太昂贵，无法以负担得起的价格提供食品，大学，能源和住房。”

This is the consequence of energy supply under constraint. The additional purchasing power made available by debt causes inflation rather than an increase in the quantity of finished products and services.

这是限制下能源供应的结果。债务提供的额外购买力会导致通货膨胀，而不是成品和服务的数量增加。

The first

第一个