川普的比特幣儲備提案會迎來加密貨幣超級週期嗎？

人們越來越猜測即將上任的美國總統川普可能會批准建立比特幣儲備的立法，這讓許多人懷疑此舉是否會導致加密貨幣超級週期。

The mounting speculations that incoming US President Donald Trump could approve legislation to create a Bitcoin reserve have left many wondering whether the move may result in a crypto supercycle. Moreover, several countries, including Germany, Russia, and Thailand, are reportedly planning to establish their own Bitcoin reserves. So, if governments worldwide embrace Bitcoin, will this put an end to the 4-year boom-bust crypto cycle, which has been largely attributed to Bitcoin halving?

人們越來越猜測即將上任的美國總統川普可能會批准建立比特幣儲備的立法，這讓許多人懷疑此舉是否會導致加密貨幣超級週期。此外，據報道，包括德國、俄羅斯和泰國在內的幾個國家正計劃建立自己的比特幣儲備。那麼，如果世界各國政府都接受比特幣，這是否會結束四年的繁榮-蕭條的加密週期，這在很大程度上歸因於比特幣減半？

Dispatch analyst at Nexo, Iliya Kalcheve, says the approval of the Bitcoin Reserve proposal, tabled by Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis, could be a significant achievement as many countries will start to recognize the asset as a legitimate financial instrument. Introduced earlier this year, the proposed Bitcoin Reserve Act would allow the American government to add one million BTC to its treasury in a span of five years, with the purchased coins being held for not less than 20 years.

Nexo 的 Dispatch 分析師 Iliya Kalcheve 表示，共和黨參議員 Cynthia Lummis 提出的比特幣儲備提案的批准可能是一項重大成就，因為許多國家將開始承認該資產是合法的金融工具。今年稍早推出的比特幣儲備法案將允許美國政府在五年內向其國庫中添加 100 萬比特幣，購買的比特幣持有期限不少於 20 年。

While other analysts think that the US government will begin buying Bitcoin after the approval of the proposed bill, Strike founder Jack Mallers, on the other hand, says Trump may sign an executive order on day one to enable BTC purchases. Similarly, Satoshi Act Fund founder Dennis Porter, who has been advocating for pro-crypto policies, believes the incoming president is exploring establishing a Bitcoin strategic reserve via an executive order.

儘管其他分析師認為美國政府將在擬議法案獲得批准後開始購買比特幣，但 Strike 創始人 Jack Mallers 表示，川普可能會在第一天簽署一項行政命令以允許購買比特幣。同樣，一直倡導支持加密貨幣政策的中本聰行動基金創始人丹尼斯波特認為，即將上任的總統正在探索透過行政命令建立比特幣戰略儲備。

As of this writing, Trump hasn’t directly confirmed rumors regarding the executive order. However, he told a CNBC journalist earlier this month that his administration will definitely create a Bitcoin reserve.

截至本文撰寫時，川普尚未直接證實有關該行政命令的傳言。然而，他本月稍早告訴 CNBC 記者，他的政府肯定會建立比特幣儲備。

It is worth highlighting that executive orders lack stability, considering subsequent US presidents have the power to reverse them. Therefore, legislation is the only way to ensure the Bitcoin reserve is maintained by subsequent administrations. Luckily, Trump’s Republican Party controls Congress, making it easy to pass Lummis’ bill.

值得強調的是，考慮到隨後的美國總統有權推翻行政命令，行政命令缺乏穩定。因此，立法是確保後續政府維持比特幣儲備的唯一方法。幸運的是，川普領導的共和黨控制國會，魯米斯的法案很容易通過。

Earlier this week, Asgard Markets founder Alex Kruger said Trump’s victory made him optimistic that Bitcoin was poised for a supercycle. He claimed that the expected Bitcoin bull run resembles that of Gold in the 1900s. In 1971, when former President Richard Nixon adopted Gold, the asset surged from $34 per ounce to $850 within ten years. Kruger believes that Bitcoin can replicate this performance starting next year.

本週早些時候，Asgard Markets 創始人 Alex Kruger 表示，川普的勝利讓他對比特幣即將迎來超級週期持樂觀態度。他聲稱，預期的比特幣牛市類似於 1900 年代的黃金牛市。 1971 年，當現任總統理查德·尼克森 (Richard Nixon) 採用黃金時，該資產在十年內從每盎司 34 美元飆升至 850 美元。克魯格認為，從明年開始，比特幣可以複製這種表現。

While he doesn’t rule out a potential bear market, he insists that this cycle is different, pointing to an incoming pro-crypto US administration. Trump’s actions since winning the election have suggested that his government will create a conducive environment that promotes crypto. For instance, he has nominated well-known crypto fan Paul Atkins to replace incumbent Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler. Additionally, he has picked pro-Bitcoin Scott Besset as the next US Treasury Secretary and PayPal’s former COO David Sacks as Crypto and AI czar, whose main task will be to develop a comprehensive framework for blockchain and AI technologies.

雖然他不排除潛在的熊市，但他堅持認為這個週期是不同的，並指出即將上任的支持加密貨幣的美國政府。川普贏得選舉以來的行動表明，他的政府將創造一個促進加密貨幣發展的有利環境。例如，他提名知名加密貨幣愛好者保羅·阿特金斯 (Paul Atkins) 接替現任證券交易委員會主席加里·詹斯勒 (Gary Gensler)。此外，他還任命支持比特幣的斯科特·貝塞特(Scott Besset)為下一任美國財政部長，並任命PayPal前首席營運官大衛·薩克斯(David Sacks)為加密貨幣和人工智慧沙皇，其主要任務將是為區塊鏈和人工智慧技術開發一個全面的框架。

The phrase ‘this crypto cycle is different’ isn’t new, given that it has been used in other bull runs in the past, with those behind it pointing to institutional and mainstream adoption as the main factors.

「這個加密貨幣週期是不同的」這句話並不新鮮，因為它在過去的其他牛市中也曾被使用過，背後的人指出機構和主流採用是主要因素。

In the 2013 -2014 bull cycle, analysts who supported the supercycle theory argued that Bitcoin would attract interest worldwide as the best alternative to fiat. During the next cycle (2017 – 2018), many thought the aggressive price increase was a sign of institutional and mainstream adoption, but that wasn’t the case. In the 2020 -2021 bull run, tech companies like Tesla and MicroStrategy entered the crypto scene. At the time, several analysts claimed that other tech firms would follow suit, thus sustaining the bull cycle.

在2013年-2014年的牛市週期中，支持超級週期理論的分析師認為，比特幣作為法定貨幣的最佳替代品將吸引全世界的興趣。在下一個週期（2017-2018），許多人認為價格大幅上漲是機構和主流採用的標誌，但事實並非如此。在2020年-2021年的多頭市場中，特斯拉和MicroStrategy等科技公司進入了加密領域。當時，幾位分析師聲稱其他科技公司也會效仿，維持牛市週期。

However, the narrative failed as prices crashed, with Bitcoin and other digital assets entering an extended bear market.

然而，隨著價格暴跌，比特幣和其他數位資產進入長期熊市，這種說法失敗了。

Nevertheless, most analysts are optimistic that the incoming US administration will create bullish conditions, potentially prolonging the ongoing bull run.

儘管如此，大多數分析師樂觀地認為，即將上任的美國政府將創造一個看漲條件，有可能延長目前的多頭市場。