特朗普的比特币储备提案会迎来加密货币超级周期吗？

人们越来越多地猜测即将上任的美国总统唐纳德·特朗普可能会批准建立比特币储备的立法，这让许多人怀疑此举是否会导致加密货币超级周期。

The mounting speculations that incoming US President Donald Trump could approve legislation to create a Bitcoin reserve have left many wondering whether the move may result in a crypto supercycle. Moreover, several countries, including Germany, Russia, and Thailand, are reportedly planning to establish their own Bitcoin reserves. So, if governments worldwide embrace Bitcoin, will this put an end to the 4-year boom-bust crypto cycle, which has been largely attributed to Bitcoin halving?

人们越来越多地猜测即将上任的美国总统唐纳德·特朗普可能会批准建立比特币储备的立法，这让许多人怀疑此举是否会导致加密货币超级周期。此外，据报道，包括德国、俄罗斯和泰国在内的几个国家正计划建立自己的比特币储备。那么，如果世界各国政府都接受比特币，这是否会结束四年的繁荣-萧条的加密周期，这在很大程度上归因于比特币减半？

Dispatch analyst at Nexo, Iliya Kalcheve, says the approval of the Bitcoin Reserve proposal, tabled by Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis, could be a significant achievement as many countries will start to recognize the asset as a legitimate financial instrument. Introduced earlier this year, the proposed Bitcoin Reserve Act would allow the American government to add one million BTC to its treasury in a span of five years, with the purchased coins being held for not less than 20 years.

Nexo 的 Dispatch 分析师 Iliya Kalcheve 表示，共和党参议员 Cynthia Lummis 提出的比特币储备提案的批准可能是一项重大成就，因为许多国家将开始承认该资产是合法的金融工具。今年早些时候推出的比特币储备法案将允许美国政府在五年内向其国库中添加 100 万比特币，购买的比特币持有期限不少于 20 年。

While other analysts think that the US government will begin buying Bitcoin after the approval of the proposed bill, Strike founder Jack Mallers, on the other hand, says Trump may sign an executive order on day one to enable BTC purchases. Similarly, Satoshi Act Fund founder Dennis Porter, who has been advocating for pro-crypto policies, believes the incoming president is exploring establishing a Bitcoin strategic reserve via an executive order.

尽管其他分析师认为美国政府将在拟议法案获得批准后开始购买比特币，但 Strike 创始人 Jack Mallers 表示，特朗普可能会在第一天签署一项行政命令以允许购买比特币。同样，一直倡导支持加密货币政策的中本聪行动基金创始人丹尼斯·波特认为，即将上任的总统正在探索通过行政命令建立比特币战略储备。

As of this writing, Trump hasn’t directly confirmed rumors regarding the executive order. However, he told a CNBC journalist earlier this month that his administration will definitely create a Bitcoin reserve.

截至撰写本文时，特朗普尚未直接证实有关该行政命令的传言。然而，他本月早些时候告诉 CNBC 记者，他的政府肯定会建立比特币储备。

It is worth highlighting that executive orders lack stability, considering subsequent US presidents have the power to reverse them. Therefore, legislation is the only way to ensure the Bitcoin reserve is maintained by subsequent administrations. Luckily, Trump’s Republican Party controls Congress, making it easy to pass Lummis’ bill.

值得强调的是，考虑到随后的美国总统有权推翻行政命令，行政命令缺乏稳定性。因此，立法是确保后续政府维持比特币储备的唯一途径。幸运的是，特朗普领导的共和党控制着国会，鲁米斯的法案很容易获得通过。

Earlier this week, Asgard Markets founder Alex Kruger said Trump’s victory made him optimistic that Bitcoin was poised for a supercycle. He claimed that the expected Bitcoin bull run resembles that of Gold in the 1900s. In 1971, when former President Richard Nixon adopted Gold, the asset surged from $34 per ounce to $850 within ten years. Kruger believes that Bitcoin can replicate this performance starting next year.

本周早些时候，Asgard Markets 创始人 Alex Kruger 表示，特朗普的胜利让他对比特币即将迎来超级周期持乐观态度。他声称，预期的比特币牛市类似于 1900 年代的黄金牛市。 1971 年，当前总统理查德·尼克松 (Richard Nixon) 采用黄金时，该资产在十年内从每盎司 34 美元飙升至 850 美元。克鲁格认为，从明年开始，比特币可以复制这种表现。

While he doesn’t rule out a potential bear market, he insists that this cycle is different, pointing to an incoming pro-crypto US administration. Trump’s actions since winning the election have suggested that his government will create a conducive environment that promotes crypto. For instance, he has nominated well-known crypto fan Paul Atkins to replace incumbent Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler. Additionally, he has picked pro-Bitcoin Scott Besset as the next US Treasury Secretary and PayPal’s former COO David Sacks as Crypto and AI czar, whose main task will be to develop a comprehensive framework for blockchain and AI technologies.

虽然他不排除潜在的熊市，但他坚持认为这个周期是不同的，并指出即将上任的支持加密货币的美国政府。特朗普赢得选举以来的行动表明，他的政府将创造一个促进加密货币发展的有利环境。例如，他提名知名加密货币爱好者保罗·阿特金斯 (Paul Atkins) 接替现任证券交易委员会主席加里·詹斯勒 (Gary Gensler)。此外，他还任命支持比特币的斯科特·贝塞特(Scott Besset)为下一任美国财政部长，并任命PayPal前首席运营官大卫·萨克斯(David Sacks)为加密货币和人工智能沙皇，其主要任务将是为区块链和人工智能技术开发一个全面的框架。

The phrase ‘this crypto cycle is different’ isn’t new, given that it has been used in other bull runs in the past, with those behind it pointing to institutional and mainstream adoption as the main factors.

“这个加密货币周期是不同的”这句话并不新鲜，因为它在过去的其他牛市中也曾被使用过，背后的人指出机构和主流采用是主要因素。

In the 2013 -2014 bull cycle, analysts who supported the supercycle theory argued that Bitcoin would attract interest worldwide as the best alternative to fiat. During the next cycle (2017 – 2018), many thought the aggressive price increase was a sign of institutional and mainstream adoption, but that wasn’t the case. In the 2020 -2021 bull run, tech companies like Tesla and MicroStrategy entered the crypto scene. At the time, several analysts claimed that other tech firms would follow suit, thus sustaining the bull cycle.

在2013年-2014年的牛市周期中，支持超级周期理论的分析师认为，比特币作为法定货币的最佳替代品将吸引全世界的兴趣。在下一个周期（2017-2018），许多人认为价格大幅上涨是机构和主流采用的标志，但事实并非如此。在2020年-2021年的牛市中，特斯拉和MicroStrategy等科技公司进入了加密领域。当时，几位分析师声称其他科技公司也会效仿，从而维持牛市周期。

However, the narrative failed as prices crashed, with Bitcoin and other digital assets entering an extended bear market.

然而，随着价格暴跌，比特币和其他数字资产进入长期熊市，这种说法失败了。

Nevertheless, most analysts are optimistic that the incoming US administration will create bullish conditions, potentially prolonging the ongoing bull run.

尽管如此，大多数分析师乐观地认为，即将上任的美国政府将创造看涨条件，有可能延长当前的牛市。