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社群媒體快速發展的泡沫強化了追逐潮流和時尚的傾向。
People have always told stories to make sense of the world. Life is complicated, and we develop narratives to help explain it. And while the crypto sector is built around breakthrough innovations and farsighted vision, it is no less prone to narrative-building than any other sphere of human activity.
人們總是透過說故事來理解世界。生活是複雜的,我們透過敘述來幫助解釋它。儘管加密貨幣行業是圍繞著突破性創新和遠見卓識而建立的,但它與人類活動的任何其他領域一樣容易建立敘事。
Trends appear and recede. Zero-knowledge proofs, staking and parallel execution have all trended at various points, only to be overtaken by the next hot thing.
趨勢出現又消退。零知識證明、質押和並行執行都曾在不同的時期出現過趨勢,但最終都被下一個熱門事物所取代。
It is natural for people to follow narratives in an attempt to “ride the wave.” Founders of early-stage projects are no different, often trying to steer their vision toward ideas that can garner outsize attention and funding.
人們自然會跟隨敘事,試圖「乘風破浪」。早期專案的創辦人也不例外,他們經常試圖將自己的願景轉向能夠吸引大量關注和資金的想法。
This is true in all areas of tech. Look no further than Facebook’s rebranding as Meta in 2021 for proof that no one is too big or powerful to be pulled in by a compelling narrative.
在所有科技領域都是如此。只要看看 Facebook 在 2021 年更名為 Meta 的舉動,就可以證明,沒有人能夠大到強大,無法被引人入勝的故事所吸引。
Yet just as it’s obvious that people chase narratives, it is also clear that the true winners — the true visionaries — are those who don’t follow the herd.
然而,正如人們顯然會追逐敘事一樣,真正的贏家——真正的夢想家——也很明顯是那些不隨波逐流的人。
This is easy to say, but, like calling the top of the market, it is quite difficult to follow in practice.
這說起來容易,但就像判斷市場頂部一樣,在實踐中很難遵循。
Peter Thiel famously said that every successful company must know a secret — a truth that you understand but others don’t recognize or believe in. And it was Keith Rabois who coined the term “narrative violation” to mean finding the opportunity that goes against the current trend, and betting on it.
彼得·蒂爾(Peter Thiel) 曾說過一句名言,每家成功的公司都必須知道一個秘密——一個你了解但其他人不認識或不相信的真理。 ) 創造了「敘事違規」一詞,意思是尋找與現實背道而馳的機會。
There’s a saying: “If you can spot a trend, you’ve already missed it.” So, how do the early movers get the jump on all the bandwagon-hoppers?
有句話說:“如果你能發現趨勢,那麼你就已經錯過了它。”那麼,先行者要如何趕上所有跟風者呢?
The answer is simple: Rather than try to divine what the next fad will be, they develop truly visionary ideas and commit to them. It’s like they know a secret that others just don’t recognize.
答案很簡單:他們不會試圖預測下一個時尚是什麼,而是提出真正有遠見的想法並致力於實現它們。就好像他們知道一個別人不知道的秘密。
The history of blockchain’s evolution is a story of many such “secret keepers.” Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto’s vision needs no explanation; the inventor of Bitcoin saw a future of sound, immutable, digital money before anyone else.
區塊鏈的演變歷史就是許多這樣的「秘密守護者」的故事。比特幣創造者中本聰的願景無需解釋;比特幣的發明者比任何人都更早看到了健全、不可變的數位貨幣的未來。
Later on, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin saw a need for programmable smart contracts, which became the basis of so many subsequent crypto crazes.
後來,以太坊聯合創始人 Vitalik Buterin 看到了可程式智能合約的需求,這成為後來許多加密貨幣熱潮的基礎。
More recently, Solana came to market with a focus on a high-performance layer-1 blockchain at a time when most of the buzz was around layer-2 projects.
最近,Solana 進入市場,專注於高性能第 1 層區塊鏈,而當時大多數討論都圍繞著第 2 層專案。
The teams behind Celestia, Avail and EigenDA were working on vertical scaling: only scaling data availability when horizontal scaling — building rollups — was popular.
Celestia、Avail 和 EigenDA 背後的團隊致力於垂直擴展:只有在水平擴展(構建匯總)流行時才擴展數據可用性。
The common thread among these innovators is that they saw possibilities and pursued them regardless of the hype.
這些創新者的共同點是,他們看到了可能性並追求它們,無論炒作如何。
The tendency to chase trends and fads is reinforced by the fast-moving bubble of social media.
社群媒體快速發展的泡沫強化了追逐潮流和時尚的傾向。
Most crypto and tech entrepreneurs are active on X — it’s “where the conversation happens.” But the social media platform’s incentives reward short-term rhetorical point-scoring and groupthink. This amplifies a culture of following the current craze rather than envisioning the next breakthrough development.
大多數加密貨幣和科技創業家都活躍在 X 上——這是「對話發生的地方」。但社群媒體平台的激勵措施會獎勵短期的言辭得分和群體思維。這強化了追隨當前熱潮而不是展望下一個突破性發展的文化。
Worse, X and similar ecosystems can lead to a situation where “life imitates art.” Founders begin to develop projects in pursuit of the same short-term notoriety and clout-chasing cultivated by social media.
更糟的是,X和類似的生態系統可能會導致「生活模仿藝術」的情況。創辦人開始開發項目,以追求社群媒體帶來的同樣的短期惡名和影響力。
This can lead to a proliferation of highly touted, short-lived pump-and-dump projects whose objectives are to make money quickly rather than to deliver something truly new and useful to the market.
這可能會導致備受吹捧、短期拉高拋售項目的激增,這些項目的目標是快速賺錢,而不是向市場提供真正新穎且有用的東西。
Speculation then builds on itself: Projects speculate on speculation, creating ever-accelerating feedback loops, which then cause the narrative to shift even more quickly. This results in a negative feedback loop: Even as the incentive to follow trends is reinforced, it becomes harder and harder to do so. This is bad for entrepreneurs and bad for innovation broadly.
然後,猜測就會建立在自身之上:專案對猜測進行猜測,創造出不斷加速的回饋循環,導致敘述更快轉變。這導致了負回饋循環:即使追隨趨勢的動機得到加強,但這樣做卻變得越來越困難。這對企業家不利,也不利於廣泛的創新。
The good news is it’s easy, on an individual or project level, to reject this paradigm. A founder should believe in a vision strongly enough to see it through, regardless of which hype cycle is ascendant at a given moment. With a good idea, strong execution and a little luck, that vision will be successful, and a new narrative will grow around it.
好消息是,在個人或專案層面上,很容易拒絕這種範例。創辦人應該對自己的願景有足夠的信心並能夠實現它,無論在特定時刻哪個炒作週期正在上升。只要有一個好主意、強大的執行力和一點運氣,這個願景就會成功,新的故事也會圍繞著它。
True vision is a rare thing, and most people are not visionaries most of the time. Much more common is the desire for short-term success and recognition.
真正的遠見是一件罕見的事情,大多數人大多時候都不是有遠見的人。更常見的是對短期成功和認可的渴望。
It’s not surprising that people would look to emulate existing success — after all, this is a tried and true pathway in established professions such as law and medicine. But when it comes to technological innovation, emulation isn’t enough.
人們尋求效仿現有的成功並不奇怪——畢竟,這是在法律和醫學等成熟職業中經過考驗的真實途徑。但就技術創新而言,光靠模仿是不夠的。
Tech founders, developers and entrepreneurs need to have the courage of their convictions. Most of the time, that entails cutting against the prevailing narratives.
科技創辦人、開發者和企業家需要有勇氣堅持自己的信念。大多數時候,這需要與流行的敘事相反。
Stick to your vision and your expertise, believe in your “secret,” and bring your product to market regardless of what’s trending on social media. If your idea is good and serves a real need, you have every chance
堅持您的願景和專業知識,相信您的“秘密”,無論社交媒體上的趨勢如何,都將您的產品推向市場。如果您的想法很好並且滿足真正的需求,那麼您就有機會
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