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社交媒体快速发展的泡沫强化了追逐潮流和时尚的倾向。
People have always told stories to make sense of the world. Life is complicated, and we develop narratives to help explain it. And while the crypto sector is built around breakthrough innovations and farsighted vision, it is no less prone to narrative-building than any other sphere of human activity.
人们总是通过讲故事来理解世界。生活是复杂的,我们通过叙述来帮助解释它。尽管加密货币行业是围绕突破性创新和远见卓识而建立的,但它与人类活动的任何其他领域一样容易构建叙事。
Trends appear and recede. Zero-knowledge proofs, staking and parallel execution have all trended at various points, only to be overtaken by the next hot thing.
趋势出现又消退。零知识证明、质押和并行执行都曾在不同的时期出现过趋势,但最终都被下一个热门事物所取代。
It is natural for people to follow narratives in an attempt to “ride the wave.” Founders of early-stage projects are no different, often trying to steer their vision toward ideas that can garner outsize attention and funding.
人们很自然地会追随叙事,试图“乘风破浪”。早期项目的创始人也不例外,他们经常试图将自己的愿景转向能够吸引大量关注和资金的想法。
This is true in all areas of tech. Look no further than Facebook’s rebranding as Meta in 2021 for proof that no one is too big or powerful to be pulled in by a compelling narrative.
在所有科技领域都是如此。只要看看 Facebook 在 2021 年更名为 Meta 的举动,就可以证明,没有人能够大到强大,无法被引人入胜的故事所吸引。
Yet just as it’s obvious that people chase narratives, it is also clear that the true winners — the true visionaries — are those who don’t follow the herd.
然而,正如人们显然会追逐叙事一样,真正的赢家——真正的梦想家——也很明显是那些不随波逐流的人。
This is easy to say, but, like calling the top of the market, it is quite difficult to follow in practice.
这说起来容易,但就像判断市场顶部一样,在实践中很难遵循。
Peter Thiel famously said that every successful company must know a secret — a truth that you understand but others don’t recognize or believe in. And it was Keith Rabois who coined the term “narrative violation” to mean finding the opportunity that goes against the current trend, and betting on it.
彼得·蒂尔 (Peter Thiel) 曾说过一句名言,每家成功的公司都必须知道一个秘密——一个你了解但其他人不认识或不相信的真理。基思·拉博伊斯 (Keith Rabois) 创造了“叙事违规”一词,意思是寻找与现实背道而驰的机会。当前趋势,并对其进行押注。
There’s a saying: “If you can spot a trend, you’ve already missed it.” So, how do the early movers get the jump on all the bandwagon-hoppers?
有句话说:“如果你能发现趋势,那么你就已经错过了它。”那么,先行者如何赶上所有跟风者呢?
The answer is simple: Rather than try to divine what the next fad will be, they develop truly visionary ideas and commit to them. It’s like they know a secret that others just don’t recognize.
答案很简单:他们不会试图预测下一个时尚是什么,而是提出真正有远见的想法并致力于实现它们。就好像他们知道一个别人不知道的秘密。
The history of blockchain’s evolution is a story of many such “secret keepers.” Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto’s vision needs no explanation; the inventor of Bitcoin saw a future of sound, immutable, digital money before anyone else.
区块链的演变史就是许多这样的“秘密守护者”的故事。比特币创造者中本聪的愿景无需解释;比特币的发明者比任何人都更早地看到了健全、不可变的数字货币的未来。
Later on, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin saw a need for programmable smart contracts, which became the basis of so many subsequent crypto crazes.
后来,以太坊联合创始人 Vitalik Buterin 看到了对可编程智能合约的需求,这成为后来许多加密货币热潮的基础。
More recently, Solana came to market with a focus on a high-performance layer-1 blockchain at a time when most of the buzz was around layer-2 projects.
最近,Solana 进入市场,重点关注高性能第 1 层区块链,而当时大多数讨论都围绕第 2 层项目。
The teams behind Celestia, Avail and EigenDA were working on vertical scaling: only scaling data availability when horizontal scaling — building rollups — was popular.
Celestia、Avail 和 EigenDA 背后的团队致力于垂直扩展:只有在水平扩展(构建汇总)流行时才扩展数据可用性。
The common thread among these innovators is that they saw possibilities and pursued them regardless of the hype.
这些创新者的共同点是,他们看到了可能性并追求它们,无论炒作如何。
The tendency to chase trends and fads is reinforced by the fast-moving bubble of social media.
社交媒体快速发展的泡沫强化了追逐潮流和时尚的倾向。
Most crypto and tech entrepreneurs are active on X — it’s “where the conversation happens.” But the social media platform’s incentives reward short-term rhetorical point-scoring and groupthink. This amplifies a culture of following the current craze rather than envisioning the next breakthrough development.
大多数加密货币和科技企业家都活跃在 X 上——这是“对话发生的地方”。但社交媒体平台的激励措施会奖励短期的言辞得分和群体思维。这强化了追随当前热潮而不是展望下一个突破性发展的文化。
Worse, X and similar ecosystems can lead to a situation where “life imitates art.” Founders begin to develop projects in pursuit of the same short-term notoriety and clout-chasing cultivated by social media.
更糟糕的是,X和类似的生态系统可能会导致“生活模仿艺术”的情况。创始人开始开发项目,以追求社交媒体带来的同样的短期恶名和影响力。
This can lead to a proliferation of highly touted, short-lived pump-and-dump projects whose objectives are to make money quickly rather than to deliver something truly new and useful to the market.
这可能会导致备受吹捧、短期拉高抛售项目的激增,这些项目的目标是快速赚钱,而不是向市场提供真正新颖且有用的东西。
Speculation then builds on itself: Projects speculate on speculation, creating ever-accelerating feedback loops, which then cause the narrative to shift even more quickly. This results in a negative feedback loop: Even as the incentive to follow trends is reinforced, it becomes harder and harder to do so. This is bad for entrepreneurs and bad for innovation broadly.
然后,猜测就会建立在自身之上:项目对猜测进行猜测,创造出不断加速的反馈循环,从而导致叙述更快地转变。这导致了负反馈循环:即使追随趋势的动机得到加强,但这样做却变得越来越困难。这对企业家不利,也不利于广泛的创新。
The good news is it’s easy, on an individual or project level, to reject this paradigm. A founder should believe in a vision strongly enough to see it through, regardless of which hype cycle is ascendant at a given moment. With a good idea, strong execution and a little luck, that vision will be successful, and a new narrative will grow around it.
好消息是,在个人或项目层面上,很容易拒绝这种范例。创始人应该对自己的愿景有足够的信心并能够实现它,无论在特定时刻哪个炒作周期正在上升。只要有一个好主意、强大的执行力和一点运气,这个愿景就会成功,新的故事也会围绕它展开。
True vision is a rare thing, and most people are not visionaries most of the time. Much more common is the desire for short-term success and recognition.
真正的远见是一件罕见的事情,大多数人大多数时候都不是有远见的人。更常见的是对短期成功和认可的渴望。
It’s not surprising that people would look to emulate existing success — after all, this is a tried and true pathway in established professions such as law and medicine. But when it comes to technological innovation, emulation isn’t enough.
人们寻求效仿现有的成功并不奇怪——毕竟,这是在法律和医学等成熟职业中经过考验的真实途径。但就技术创新而言,仅靠模仿是不够的。
Tech founders, developers and entrepreneurs need to have the courage of their convictions. Most of the time, that entails cutting against the prevailing narratives.
科技创始人、开发者和企业家需要有勇气坚持自己的信念。大多数时候,这需要与流行的叙事相悖。
Stick to your vision and your expertise, believe in your “secret,” and bring your product to market regardless of what’s trending on social media. If your idea is good and serves a real need, you have every chance
坚持您的愿景和专业知识,相信您的“秘密”,无论社交媒体上的趋势如何,都将您的产品推向市场。如果您的想法很好并且满足真正的需求,那么您就有机会
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