標題：流行的宏觀經濟學專家林恩·奧爾登（Lyn Alden）認為，當前的比特幣（BTC）校正與2024年3月的見證人相似

流行的宏觀經濟學專家林恩·奧爾登（Lyn Alden）認為，目前的比特幣（BTC）校正類似於2024年3月基於一個基於一項關鍵的鍊鍊度量的觀點。

Popular macroeconomics expert Lyn Alden is comparing Bitcoin's (BTC) current correction to the one witnessed in March 2024 based on one key on-chain metric.

流行的宏觀經濟專家林恩·奧爾登（Lyn Alden）正在將比特幣（BTC）的當前校正與2024年3月基於一項關鍵鍊鍊型指標見證的校正。

In a new interview on The Your Life! Your Terms! YouTube channel, Alden says she's keeping a close watch on Bitcoin's market value to realized value (MVRV) metric, an on-chain indicator that helps assess whether BTC is overvalued or undervalued by comparing its market cap (market value) to the average price at which all coins were last moved (realized value).

在對您的生活的新採訪中！你的條款！ YouTube頻道Alden說，她正在密切關注比特幣的市場價值與已實現價值（MVRV）度量標準，這是一個鏈指標，該指標有助於評估BTC是否通過比較其市場上限（市場價值）與所有貨幣的平均價格（實現價值）的平均價格（實現價值）（實現價值）。

The macro guru explains that during the initial stages of a bull market, Bitcoin's market cap tends to soar, while its average cost basis lags as early investors hold onto their coins in anticipation of more rallies, resulting in a higher MVRV value.

宏觀大師解釋說，在牛市的最初階段，比特幣的市值往往會飆升，而隨著早期投資者在預期更多的集會期間，其平均成本基礎滯後，導致MVRV價值更高。

Alden says that when the MVRV soars to extreme levels, it drives more long-term investors to unload their holdings, which can signal the start of a multi-year bear market.

奧爾登說，當MVRV飆升至極端水平時，它會驅動更多的長期投資者卸載其持股，這可能標誌著多年熊市的開始。

For now, the macro expert says the metric is still within its usual bull market range, leading her to believe that BTC can still soar to greater heights.

宏觀專家說，該指標仍在其通常的牛市範圍內，使她相信BTC仍然可以飆升至更高的高度。

"When you see more and more coins at those higher price levels, it helps lower that ratio because, basically, the average cost basis is catching up to some extent with that wild explosion in market cap.

“當您看到越來越高的價格水平的硬幣時，它有助於降低該比率，因為基本上，由於市值的狂野爆炸，平均成本基礎在一定程度上趕上了一定程度。

So what I generally point out is that we've not really seen extremes yet this year. Back in March of 2024, when we broke out to new all-time highs for the first time in a couple of years, Bitcoin hit $73,000. That metric got a little bit euphoric, but nothing like a multi-year top historically has been. And so we saw a seven-month consolidation, but nothing really worse than that.

因此，我通常指出的是，我們今年還沒有真正看到過極端。早在2024年3月，當我們幾年來首次闖入新的歷史高點時，比特幣達到了73,000美元。該指標有點欣喜若狂，但沒有歷史上多年的頂級。因此，我們看到了一個七個月的合併，但沒有什麼比這更糟糕的了。

Similarly, when Bitcoin hit $108,000 more recently, that metric got a little bit overdone, but again, it wasn’t those multi-year dislocations that we normally see.

同樣，當比特幣最近更多地達到108,000美元時，該指標有點過高了，但同樣，這不是我們通常看到的多年脫位。

For me, I’m more on the lookout for probabilities of breaking out versus breaking down. And so my view is that there’s still a higher probability of breaking up, and to say that, I don’t think we’re set for a multi-year bear market until we probably reach higher prices."

對我來說，我更多地關注破壞與崩潰的概率。因此，我的觀點是，分手的可能性仍然更高，並且要說，我認為我們不會為多年的熊市市場打算，直到我們可能達到更高的價格。 ”

At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading for $81,357.

在寫作時，比特幣的交易價格為81,357美元。

Follow us on X, Facebook and Telegram

在X，Facebook和Telegram上關注我們

Don't Miss a Beat – Subscribe to get email alerts delivered directly to your inbox

不要錯過節拍 - 訂閱以獲取直接發送給您的收件箱的電子郵件警報

Check Price Action

檢查價格動作

Surf The Daily Hodl Mix

瀏覽每日hodl混合