标题：流行的宏观经济学专家林恩·奥尔登（Lyn Alden）认为，当前的比特币（BTC）校正与2024年3月的见证人相似

流行的宏观经济学专家林恩·奥尔登（Lyn Alden）认为，目前的比特币（BTC）校正类似于2024年3月基于一个基于一项关键的链链度量的观点。

Popular macroeconomics expert Lyn Alden is comparing Bitcoin's (BTC) current correction to the one witnessed in March 2024 based on one key on-chain metric.

流行的宏观经济专家林恩·奥尔登（Lyn Alden）正在将比特币（BTC）的当前校正与2024年3月基于一项关键链链型指标见证的校正。

In a new interview on The Your Life! Your Terms! YouTube channel, Alden says she's keeping a close watch on Bitcoin's market value to realized value (MVRV) metric, an on-chain indicator that helps assess whether BTC is overvalued or undervalued by comparing its market cap (market value) to the average price at which all coins were last moved (realized value).

在对您的生活的新采访中！你的条款！ YouTube频道Alden说，她正在密切关注比特币的市场价值与已实现价值（MVRV）度量标准，这是一个链指标，该指标有助于评估BTC是否通过比较其市场上限（市场价值）与所有货币的平均价格（实现价值）的平均价格（实现价值）（实现价值）。

The macro guru explains that during the initial stages of a bull market, Bitcoin's market cap tends to soar, while its average cost basis lags as early investors hold onto their coins in anticipation of more rallies, resulting in a higher MVRV value.

宏观大师解释说，在牛市的最初阶段，比特币的市值往往会飙升，而随着早期投资者在预期更多的集会期间，其平均成本基础滞后，导致MVRV价值更高。

Alden says that when the MVRV soars to extreme levels, it drives more long-term investors to unload their holdings, which can signal the start of a multi-year bear market.

奥尔登说，当MVRV飙升至极端水平时，它会驱动更多的长期投资者卸载其持股，这可能标志着多年熊市的开始。

For now, the macro expert says the metric is still within its usual bull market range, leading her to believe that BTC can still soar to greater heights.

宏观专家说，该指标仍在其通常的牛市范围内，使她相信BTC仍然可以飙升至更高的高度。

"When you see more and more coins at those higher price levels, it helps lower that ratio because, basically, the average cost basis is catching up to some extent with that wild explosion in market cap.

“当您看到越来越高的价格水平的硬币时，它有助于降低该比率，因为基本上，由于市值的狂野爆炸，平均成本基础在一定程度上赶上了一定程度。

So what I generally point out is that we've not really seen extremes yet this year. Back in March of 2024, when we broke out to new all-time highs for the first time in a couple of years, Bitcoin hit $73,000. That metric got a little bit euphoric, but nothing like a multi-year top historically has been. And so we saw a seven-month consolidation, but nothing really worse than that.

因此，我通常指出的是，我们今年还没有真正看到过极端。早在2024年3月，当我们几年来首次闯入新的历史高点时，比特币达到了73,000美元。该指标有点欣喜若狂，但没有历史上多年的顶级。因此，我们看到了一个七个月的合并，但没有什么比这更糟糕的了。

Similarly, when Bitcoin hit $108,000 more recently, that metric got a little bit overdone, but again, it wasn’t those multi-year dislocations that we normally see.

同样，当比特币最近更多地达到108,000美元时，该指标有点过高了，但同样，这不是我们通常看到的多年脱位。

For me, I’m more on the lookout for probabilities of breaking out versus breaking down. And so my view is that there’s still a higher probability of breaking up, and to say that, I don’t think we’re set for a multi-year bear market until we probably reach higher prices."

对我来说，我更多地关注破坏与崩溃的概率。因此，我的观点是，分手的可能性仍然更高，并且要说，我认为我们不会为多年的熊市市场打算，直到我们可能达到更高的价格。”

At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading for $81,357.

在写作时，比特币的交易价格为81,357美元。

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