隨著市場不確定性在增長，比特幣可能是防止通貨膨脹的有用的對沖

從長遠來看，以不同的方式設想比特幣，將其視為技術行業的晴雨表也可能很有用。

Standard Chartered’s Head of Digital Assets Research and WeFi’s Head of Growth shared exclusive comments with BeInCrypto regarding Bitcoin and its role as an inflation hedge.

Standard Charter的數字資產研究負責人和WEFI的增長負責人與Beincrypto有關比特幣及其作為通貨膨脹對沖的作用的獨家評論。

Rising Tariffs and Biden’s Impact on Bitcoin

關稅上升和拜登對比特幣的影響

Since the early days of the crypto space, investors have been using it as a hedge against inflation. However, it’s only recently that institutional investors are beginning to view it the same way. According to Geoff Kendrick, Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, the trend of Bitcoin as an inflation hedge is increasing.

自加密領域的早期以來，投資者一直將其用作抵抗通貨膨脹的對沖。但是，直到最近，機構投資者才開始以同樣的方式看待它。根據《標準特許》中數字資產研究負責人傑夫·肯德里克（Geoff Kendrick）的說法，比特幣作為通貨膨脹對沖的趨勢正在增加。

Still, this view may be too narrow in a few ways. Since the Bitcoin ETFs were first approved, BTC has been increasingly well-integrated with traditional finance. As a result, it is highly correlated with the NASDAQ in the short term. According to Kendrick, this correlation means that Bitcoin might represent more than an inflation hedge, instead serving as an ersatz tech stock:

儘管如此，這種觀點在幾種方面可能太狹窄了。由於比特幣ETF首次獲得批准，因此BTC越來越多地與傳統金融合併。結果，它在短期內與納斯達克高度相關。根據肯德里克（Kendrick）的說法，這種相關性意味著比特幣可能代表的不僅僅是通貨膨脹對沖，而是充當Ersatz技術股票：

“BTC may be better viewed as a tech stock than as a hedge against TradFi issues. If we create a hypothetical index where we add BTC to the ‘Magnificent 7’ tech stocks, and remove Tesla, We find that our index, ‘Mag 7B’, has both higher returns and lower volatility than Mag 7,” Kendrick said.

肯德里克（Kendrick）說：“ BTC可以更好地將BTC視為技術股，而不是針對Tradfi問題的對沖。如果我們創建了一個假設指數，將BTC添加到“ Magnificent 7”的技術股票中，並且刪除Tesla，我們發現我們的指數，“ MAG 7B”，“ MAG 7B”的回報既要高，而且比Mag 7更高的動力率，” Kendrick說。

This comparison is particularly apt for a few reasons. Tesla’s stock price is heavily entangled with Bitcoin’s, but it’s also been dropping due to political controversies. If Bitcoin were to replace Tesla’s position in the Magnificent 7, it may be a welcome addition. Of course, there is currently no mechanism to cleanly treat Bitcoin as a similar type of product. That could change.

由於某些原因，這種比較特別適合。特斯拉的股價與比特幣糾纏在一起，但由於政治爭議，它也一直在下降。如果比特幣要替換特斯拉在宏偉的7中的位置，那麼這可能是一個可喜的補充。當然，目前尚無清潔比特幣作為類似產品的機制。那可能會改變。

However, Bitcoin’s role as an inflation hedge might be more immediately relevant. As Trump’s Liberation Day approaches, the crypto markets are becoming increasingly nervous about new US tariffs. As Agne Linge, Head of Growth at WeFi, said, these fears are impacting all risk-on assets, Bitcoin included.

但是，比特幣作為通貨膨脹對沖的作用可能更加立即相關。隨著特朗普的解放日臨近，加密貨幣市場對新的美國關稅變得越來越緊張。正如WEFI增長負責人Agne Linge所說，這些擔心會影響所有風險資產，包括比特幣。

“Crypto markets are closely tracking investor sentiment ahead of Trump’s ...tariff announcement, with growing concerns over the potential economic impact. Bitcoin’s increasing correlation with traditional markets has amplified its exposure to broader macroeconomic trends, making it more sensitive to the risk-off sentiment that has affected equity markets,” Linge claimed.

“加密市場正在仔細地跟踪特朗普的關稅公告之前的投資者情緒，對潛在的經濟影響越來越擔心。比特幣與傳統市場的增加相關性擴大了其對更廣泛的宏觀經濟趨勢的影響，這使其對影響了影響公平市場的風險情緒更加敏感。”

She went on to state that US economic uncertainty was at record levels, having surpassed both the 2008 financial crisis and the pandemic in April 2020. In these circumstances, recent inflation indicators are showing expected rates above expectations.

她繼續指出，美國的經濟不確定性處於創紀錄的水平，在2020年4月超過了2008年的金融危機和大流行。在這種情況下，最近的通貨膨脹指標顯示出預期的費率高於預期。

In such an environment, the crypto market is sure to take a hit, but traditional finance and the dollar are also in great jeopardy. All that is to say, Bitcoin is likely to be a solid inflation hedge in the near future. Even if it falls dramatically, it has worldwide appeal and the ability to rebound.

在這樣的環境中，加密貨幣市場肯定會受到打擊，但是傳統的金融和美元也陷入了巨大的危險。所有的話，在不久的將來，比特幣可能是穩固的通貨膨脹對沖。即使它急劇下降，它也具有全球吸引力和反彈的能力。