標題：比特幣（BTC）MVRV比率形成死亡十字架，信號潛在價格更正

全球最大的加密貨幣，比特幣BTC $ 82 693 24H波動率：0.4％的市值：1.64 $ t卷。 24H：$ 20.28 b，再次處於銷售壓力下

Key Points

關鍵點

* The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has formed a death cross, a technical pattern that could signal a potential downside trend for Bitcoin

*實現價值的市場價值（MVRV）比率形成了死亡十字架，這是一種技術模式，可以指示比特幣的潛在下行趨勢

* This occurs when the short-term MVRV moving average drops below the long-term average, indicating weaker short-term price momentum

*當短期MVRV移動平均平均值下降到長期平均水平以下時，這會發生這種情況

* As the coin struggles to maintain key support levels, investors and traders are on edge

*隨著硬幣努力維持關鍵支持水平的努力，投資者和貿易商處於優勢

(Image Credit: Unsplash)

（信用圖片：Unsplash）

The world’s leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC $82 693 24h volatility: 0.4% Market cap: $1.64 T Vol. 24h: $20.28 B ), is again facing selling pressure as a critical on-chain indicator has shown a bearish signal.

世界領先的加密貨幣比特幣（BTC $ 82 693 24H波動率：0.4％的市值：$ 1.64 tvol。24h：$ 20.28 b）再次面臨銷售壓力，作為關鍵的鍊鍊指標已顯示出看跌信號。

CryptoQuant data shows that the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has formed a “death cross.” This technical pattern emerges when the short-term MVRV moving average falls below the long-term average, signaling a possible shift to lower prices.

加密數據表明，實現價值的市場價值（MVRV）比率形成了“死亡十字”。當短期MVRV移動平均值低於長期平均水平時，這種技術模式就會出現，這表明可能轉移到價格較低的情況下。

The ratio compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization to its realized value, which is the price at which coins last moved on-chain. This helps determine if Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued.

該比率將比特幣的市值與已實現的價值進行了比較，這是硬幣上次移動鏈的價格。這有助於確定比特幣是否被高估或被低估。

MVRV Dead Cross Signals Mounting Downside Risk

MVRV死亡交叉信號安裝下行風險

“Early March saw the 30DMA drop below the 365DMA—a bearish dead cross—highlighting waning short-term momentum and escalating downward pressure.

“ 3月初，30DMA下降到365DMA以下（看跌的死十字架），幅度降低了短期的勢頭，併升級了向下壓力。

As MVRV converges on its long-term historical average, it seems like the market is slowly pricing in a return to fair value after a period of exuberance.

隨著MVRV的長期歷史平均水平匯聚，似乎在一段時間後，市場正在逐漸恢復公允價值。

When the 30SMA dropped below the 365SMA, it signaled a bearish note, and if we look back at the previous cycles, we can observe that whenever this cross occurred at the peak of a cycle, it was followed by a deep correction.

當30SMA掉落在365SMA以下時，它發出了看跌的音符，如果我們回頭看先前的周期，我們可以觀察到，每當此十字發生在一個循環的峰值時，隨後會進行深層校正。

This is because, at the peak of a cycle, there is usually a lot of FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) buying activity, which pushes up the market value rapidly, while the realized value remains relatively low.

這是因為，在周期的高峰期，通常會有很多FOMO（擔心錯過）購買活動，這會迅速提高市場價值，而實現的價值仍然相對較低。

However, as the FOMO subsides and selling pressure increases, the market value begins to decline faster than the realized value, leading to a steeper decline in the MVRV ratio. This is what we saw in the previous cycles, where a rapid rise in market value was followed by an equally rapid decline, resulting in a substantial price correction.

但是，隨著FOMO減輕和銷售壓力的增加，市場價值開始下降的速度快於實現價值，從而導致MVRV比率下降幅度急劇下降。這是我們在以前的周期中看到的，在前週期中，市場價值的迅速上升，隨後迅速下降，導致了大量的價格校正。

In the current cycle, we saw a similar pattern as Bitcoin surged to new highs in November 2024, but the rate of increase in market value outpaced that of realized value, forming a steep angle in the MVRV chart.

在當前週期中，我們看到了與比特幣在2024年11月飆升至新高點相似的模式，但是市場價值的增加速率超過​​了實現價值的價值，在MVRV圖表中形成了陡峭的角度。

This signaled that buyers were willing to pay higher and higher prices for Bitcoin, even as the coins remained largely unmoved on-chain. However, as macroeconomic uncertainty grew and risk appetite diminished, we began to see a reversal of this trend.

這表明買家願意為比特幣支付較高的價格，即使硬幣仍然在很大程度上沒有鏈上。但是，隨著宏觀經濟不確定性的增長，風險食慾減少，我們開始看到這種趨勢的逆轉。

As selling pressure mounted, the market value began to decrease more quickly than the realized value, flattening the angle of the MVRV chart and eventually leading to the 30DMA falling below the 365DMA, signaling a shift in favor of sellers.

隨著銷售壓力的增加，市場價值開始比實現價值更快下降，使MVRV圖表的角度變平，並最終導致30DMA降至365DMA以下，這表明對賣方有利的轉變。

This is also evident in the declining volume of Bitcoin trading on exchanges, further indicating reduced activity and liquidity in the market.

這在交易所交易所交易的數量下降中也很明顯，這進一步表明了市場的活動和流動性降低。

As we move forward, it will be interesting to observe how this technical pattern unfolds and what implications it could have for the price of Bitcoin.”

隨著我們的前進，觀察這種技術模式如何展開以及它對比特幣價格產生什麼影響將很有趣。 ”

It is worth noting that earlier this month, Bitcoin’s 30-day MVRV moving average fell below the 365-day average, marking this bearish signal. Similar patterns have brought about price corrections, as seen in past cycles when Bitcoin reached local peaks before pulling back drastically.

值得注意的是，本月早些時候，比特幣的30天MVRV移動平均值低於365天的平均水平，標誌著這一看跌信號。類似的模式帶來了價格校正，就像比特幣在急劇倒退之前到達本地峰的過去週期中所見。

Analysts are warning that Bitcoin could still fall harder in the coming weeks. In a recent post, CryptoQuant analyst Yonsei_dent stated that although Bitcoin MVRV has exited the overheated zone, there is no clear signal of a bottom yet. This leaves room for more volatility as traders decide if Bitcoin will stabilize or if further declines are coming.

分析師警告說，在接下來的幾周中，比特幣仍然可能會更加嚴重。在最近的一篇文章中，CryptoQuant分析師Yonse_dent表示，儘管比特幣MVRV已退出過熱區域，但尚無明確的底部信號。當交易者決定比特幣是否穩定或進一步下降時，這留下了更多波動的空間。

According to market data, Bitcoin is struggling to stay above the $82,000 level after a weekly drop from $87,000. The rising selling pressure is due to macroeconomic uncertainty and reduced risk appetite.

根據市場數據，比特幣每週從87,000美元下降後，比特幣努力保持高於82,000美元的水平。銷售壓力的上升是由於宏觀經濟不確定性和風險食慾降低。

If BTC bulls fail to defend this $82,000 support, Bitcoin could fall below $80,000, placing it in deeper correction territory. Meanwhile, veteran trader Peter Brandt recently stated that a decline to $70,000 for BTC is a reasonable expectation if the current bearish outlook persists.

如果BTC公牛隊未能捍衛這筆82,000美元的支持，則比特幣可能會低於80,000美元，將其置於更深層次的更正領域。同時，經驗豐富的商人彼得·布蘭特（Peter Brandt）最近表示，如果目前的看跌前景持續存在，BTC的下降到70,000美元是一個合理的期望。

Key Support and Resistance Levels to Watch

關鍵支持和電阻水平要觀看

With Bitcoin under pressure, stakeholders are closely monitoring the trends for key levels. Many experts see the $82,000 support as a critical zone in the short term. However, failure to maintain this position could lead to a terrible

由於比特幣在壓力下，利益相關者正在密切監視關鍵水平的趨勢。許多專家將82,000美元的支持視為短期的關鍵區域。但是，無法維持這一立場可能會導致可怕的