title: Bitcoin (BTC) MVRV Ratio Forms Death Cross, Signaling Potential Price Correction

The world's largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin BTC $82 693 24h volatility: 0.4% Market cap: $1.64 T Vol. 24h: $20.28 B , is again under selling pressure

Key Points

* The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has formed a death cross, a technical pattern that could signal a potential downside trend for Bitcoin

* This occurs when the short-term MVRV moving average drops below the long-term average, indicating weaker short-term price momentum

* As the coin struggles to maintain key support levels, investors and traders are on edge

(Image Credit: Unsplash)

(Credit image: Unsplash)

The world’s leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC $82 693 24h volatility: 0.4% Market cap: $1.64 T Vol. 24h: $20.28 B ), is again facing selling pressure as a critical on-chain indicator has shown a bearish signal.

CryptoQuant data shows that the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has formed a “death cross.” This technical pattern emerges when the short-term MVRV moving average falls below the long-term average, signaling a possible shift to lower prices.

The ratio compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization to its realized value, which is the price at which coins last moved on-chain. This helps determine if Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued.

MVRV Dead Cross Signals Mounting Downside Risk

“Early March saw the 30DMA drop below the 365DMA—a bearish dead cross—highlighting waning short-term momentum and escalating downward pressure.

As MVRV converges on its long-term historical average, it seems like the market is slowly pricing in a return to fair value after a period of exuberance.

When the 30SMA dropped below the 365SMA, it signaled a bearish note, and if we look back at the previous cycles, we can observe that whenever this cross occurred at the peak of a cycle, it was followed by a deep correction.

This is because, at the peak of a cycle, there is usually a lot of FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) buying activity, which pushes up the market value rapidly, while the realized value remains relatively low.

However, as the FOMO subsides and selling pressure increases, the market value begins to decline faster than the realized value, leading to a steeper decline in the MVRV ratio. This is what we saw in the previous cycles, where a rapid rise in market value was followed by an equally rapid decline, resulting in a substantial price correction.

In the current cycle, we saw a similar pattern as Bitcoin surged to new highs in November 2024, but the rate of increase in market value outpaced that of realized value, forming a steep angle in the MVRV chart.

This signaled that buyers were willing to pay higher and higher prices for Bitcoin, even as the coins remained largely unmoved on-chain. However, as macroeconomic uncertainty grew and risk appetite diminished, we began to see a reversal of this trend.

As selling pressure mounted, the market value began to decrease more quickly than the realized value, flattening the angle of the MVRV chart and eventually leading to the 30DMA falling below the 365DMA, signaling a shift in favor of sellers.

This is also evident in the declining volume of Bitcoin trading on exchanges, further indicating reduced activity and liquidity in the market.

As we move forward, it will be interesting to observe how this technical pattern unfolds and what implications it could have for the price of Bitcoin.”

It is worth noting that earlier this month, Bitcoin’s 30-day MVRV moving average fell below the 365-day average, marking this bearish signal. Similar patterns have brought about price corrections, as seen in past cycles when Bitcoin reached local peaks before pulling back drastically.

Analysts are warning that Bitcoin could still fall harder in the coming weeks. In a recent post, CryptoQuant analyst Yonsei_dent stated that although Bitcoin MVRV has exited the overheated zone, there is no clear signal of a bottom yet. This leaves room for more volatility as traders decide if Bitcoin will stabilize or if further declines are coming.

According to market data, Bitcoin is struggling to stay above the $82,000 level after a weekly drop from $87,000. The rising selling pressure is due to macroeconomic uncertainty and reduced risk appetite.

If BTC bulls fail to defend this $82,000 support, Bitcoin could fall below $80,000, placing it in deeper correction territory. Meanwhile, veteran trader Peter Brandt recently stated that a decline to $70,000 for BTC is a reasonable expectation if the current bearish outlook persists.

Key Support and Resistance Levels to Watch

With Bitcoin under pressure, stakeholders are closely monitoring the trends for key levels. Many experts see the $82,000 support as a critical zone in the short term. However, failure to maintain this position could lead to a terrible