标题：比特币（BTC）MVRV比率形成死亡十字架，信号潜在价格更正

全球最大的加密货币，比特币BTC $ 82 693 24H波动率：0.4％的市值：1.64 $ t卷。 24H：$ 20.28 b，再次处于销售压力下

Key Points

关键点

* The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has formed a death cross, a technical pattern that could signal a potential downside trend for Bitcoin

*实现价值的市场价值（MVRV）比率形成了死亡十字架，这是一种技术模式，可以指示比特币的潜在下行趋势

* This occurs when the short-term MVRV moving average drops below the long-term average, indicating weaker short-term price momentum

*当短期MVRV移动平均平均值下降到长期平均水平以下时，这会发生这种情况

* As the coin struggles to maintain key support levels, investors and traders are on edge

*随着硬币努力维持关键支持水平的努力，投资者和贸易商处于优势

(Image Credit: Unsplash)

（信用图片：Unsplash）

The world’s leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC $82 693 24h volatility: 0.4% Market cap: $1.64 T Vol. 24h: $20.28 B ), is again facing selling pressure as a critical on-chain indicator has shown a bearish signal.

世界领先的加密货币比特币（BTC $ 82 693 24H波动率：0.4％的市值：$ 1.64 tvol。24h：$ 20.28 b）再次面临销售压力，作为关键的链链指标已显示出看跌信号。

CryptoQuant data shows that the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has formed a “death cross.” This technical pattern emerges when the short-term MVRV moving average falls below the long-term average, signaling a possible shift to lower prices.

加密数据表明，实现价值的市场价值（MVRV）比率形成了“死亡十字”。当短期MVRV移动平均值低于长期平均水平时，这种技术模式就会出现，这表明可能转移到价格较低的情况下。

The ratio compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization to its realized value, which is the price at which coins last moved on-chain. This helps determine if Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued.

该比率将比特币的市值与已实现的价值进行了比较，这是硬币上次移动链的价格。这有助于确定比特币是否被高估或被低估。

MVRV Dead Cross Signals Mounting Downside Risk

MVRV死亡交叉信号安装下行风险

“Early March saw the 30DMA drop below the 365DMA—a bearish dead cross—highlighting waning short-term momentum and escalating downward pressure.

“ 3月初，30DMA下降到365DMA以下（看跌的死十字架），幅度降低了短期的势头，并升级了向下压力。

As MVRV converges on its long-term historical average, it seems like the market is slowly pricing in a return to fair value after a period of exuberance.

随着MVRV的长期历史平均水平汇聚，似乎在一段时间后，市场正在逐渐恢复公允价值。

When the 30SMA dropped below the 365SMA, it signaled a bearish note, and if we look back at the previous cycles, we can observe that whenever this cross occurred at the peak of a cycle, it was followed by a deep correction.

当30SMA掉落在365SMA以下时，它发出了看跌的音符，如果我们回头看先前的周期，我们可以观察到，每当此十字发生在一个循环的峰值时，随后会进行深层校正。

This is because, at the peak of a cycle, there is usually a lot of FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) buying activity, which pushes up the market value rapidly, while the realized value remains relatively low.

这是因为，在周期的高峰期，通常会有很多FOMO（担心错过）购买活动，这会迅速提高市场价值，而实现的价值仍然相对较低。

However, as the FOMO subsides and selling pressure increases, the market value begins to decline faster than the realized value, leading to a steeper decline in the MVRV ratio. This is what we saw in the previous cycles, where a rapid rise in market value was followed by an equally rapid decline, resulting in a substantial price correction.

但是，随着FOMO减轻和销售压力的增加，市场价值开始下降的速度快于实现价值，从而导致MVRV比率下降幅度急剧下降。这是我们在以前的周期中看到的，在前周期中，市场价值的迅速上升，随后迅速下降，导致了大量的价格校正。

In the current cycle, we saw a similar pattern as Bitcoin surged to new highs in November 2024, but the rate of increase in market value outpaced that of realized value, forming a steep angle in the MVRV chart.

在当前周期中，我们看到了与比特币在2024年11月飙升至新高点相似的模式，但是市场价值的增加速率超过​​了实现价值的价值，在MVRV图表中形成了陡峭的角度。

This signaled that buyers were willing to pay higher and higher prices for Bitcoin, even as the coins remained largely unmoved on-chain. However, as macroeconomic uncertainty grew and risk appetite diminished, we began to see a reversal of this trend.

这表明买家愿意为比特币支付较高的价格，即使硬币仍然在很大程度上没有链上。但是，随着宏观经济不确定性的增长，风险食欲减少，我们开始看到这种趋势的逆转。

As selling pressure mounted, the market value began to decrease more quickly than the realized value, flattening the angle of the MVRV chart and eventually leading to the 30DMA falling below the 365DMA, signaling a shift in favor of sellers.

随着销售压力的增加，市场价值开始比实现价值更快下降，使MVRV图表的角度变平，并最终导致30DMA降至365DMA以下，这表明对卖方有利的转变。

This is also evident in the declining volume of Bitcoin trading on exchanges, further indicating reduced activity and liquidity in the market.

这在交易所交易所交易的数量下降中也很明显，这进一步表明了市场的活动和流动性降低。

As we move forward, it will be interesting to observe how this technical pattern unfolds and what implications it could have for the price of Bitcoin.”

随着我们的前进，观察这种技术模式如何展开以及它对比特币价格产生什么影响将很有趣。”

It is worth noting that earlier this month, Bitcoin’s 30-day MVRV moving average fell below the 365-day average, marking this bearish signal. Similar patterns have brought about price corrections, as seen in past cycles when Bitcoin reached local peaks before pulling back drastically.

值得注意的是，本月早些时候，比特币的30天MVRV移动平均值低于365天的平均水平，标志着这一看跌信号。类似的模式带来了价格校正，就像比特币在急剧倒退之前到达本地峰的过去周期中所见。

Analysts are warning that Bitcoin could still fall harder in the coming weeks. In a recent post, CryptoQuant analyst Yonsei_dent stated that although Bitcoin MVRV has exited the overheated zone, there is no clear signal of a bottom yet. This leaves room for more volatility as traders decide if Bitcoin will stabilize or if further declines are coming.

分析师警告说，在接下来的几周中，比特币仍然可能会更加严重。在最近的一篇文章中，CryptoQuant分析师Yonse_dent表示，尽管比特币MVRV已退出过热区域，但尚无明确的底部信号。当交易者决定比特币是否稳定或进一步下降时，这留下了更多波动的空间。

According to market data, Bitcoin is struggling to stay above the $82,000 level after a weekly drop from $87,000. The rising selling pressure is due to macroeconomic uncertainty and reduced risk appetite.

根据市场数据，比特币每周从87,000美元下降后，比特币努力保持高于82,000美元的水平。销售压力的上升是由于宏观经济不确定性和风险食欲降低。

If BTC bulls fail to defend this $82,000 support, Bitcoin could fall below $80,000, placing it in deeper correction territory. Meanwhile, veteran trader Peter Brandt recently stated that a decline to $70,000 for BTC is a reasonable expectation if the current bearish outlook persists.

如果BTC公牛队未能捍卫这笔82,000美元的支持，则比特币可能会低于80,000美元，将其置于更深层次的更正领域。同时，经验丰富的商人彼得·布兰特（Peter Brandt）最近表示，如果目前的看跌前景持续存在，BTC的下降到70,000美元是一个合理的期望。

Key Support and Resistance Levels to Watch

关键支持和电阻水平要观看

With Bitcoin under pressure, stakeholders are closely monitoring the trends for key levels. Many experts see the $82,000 support as a critical zone in the short term. However, failure to maintain this position could lead to a terrible

由于比特币在压力下，利益相关者正在密切监视关键水平的趋势。许多专家将82,000美元的支持视为短期的关键区域。但是，无法维持这一立场可能会导致可怕的